Farrell’s Five Bold Fantasy Predictions Week 7

Ok, I realized I was too lazy to continue with the weekly Lazy Man’s Guide to Fantasy Football.  Honestly, covering every player in sixteen or so match-ups per week was an exhausting, even boring, exercise.  So, now what?  Well, in true lazy man fashion, I plan on significantly decreasing my workload while increasing the impact of my suggestions, for better or for worse, with my new weekly feature of five bold predictions for the coming weekend.  The majority will be my actual advice for fantasy lineup purposes, but I reserve the right to include other predictions that fall beyond the typical boundaries of fantasy football.  With no further ado…

Farrell’s Five Bold Fantasy Predictions Week 7

1. Ryan Fitzpatrick will have more fantasy points than Tom Brady this week: 

There’s a reason I call this bold predictions, not normal, well-thought out and measured predictions (although some of those follow).   This prediction is based on match ups, a hunch, and possibly alcohol consumption.  The bottom line is teams have been able to move the ball on the Patriots through the air, while it’s been really hard for teams to move the ball through the air against the Jets.  Opposing QBs are completing just 52% of their passes for a 60.9 QB rating against the Jets this season, both tops in the league.  By comparison, QBs are completing 65% of their passes for an 87.5 rating against the Patriots defense.  Fitzpatrick has been efficient and effective, and Brandon Marshall is on a complete tear, with four straight 100 yard games and four touchdowns in just five games.  *Asterisk:  This prediction assumes Marshall plays, he popped up on the injury report and should be fine, but I accept no responsibility for this prediction if he doesn’t play.  My guess is Bill Belichick loads up his front line to stop Chris Ivory, and basically dares the Jets to try to beat them with Fitzpatrick… and he might just do it.

2. Julio Jones returns to the top of the WR rankings: 

A few weeks ago, this certainly would not have counted as a bold prediction.  But, after a blistering and near record-setting pace through his first three games, Jones has suffered through a hamstring injury and seen his fantasy output plummet back into the realm of mortals.  So why should this week be any different?  Sure, Tennessee currently boasts the top pass defense in the NFL (based on yards allowed), but that stat is completely bogus.  The Titans have had the fewest passes attempted against them in the NFL, by a pretty big margin.  They’ve had highly favorable match ups, such as Jameis Winston’s first career start with no Mike Evans, a Browns game with Johnny Manziel at QB (and Travis Benjamin still totaled 115 yards and two scores), and a game against the Bills where Tyrod Taylor passed just 17 times.  While they haven’t given up a lot of passing yards overall, the Titans are giving up 8.2 yards per pass, which ranks 28^th in the league.  The New York Jets, by comparison, led the league by allowing just 5.4 yards per attempt.  Despite his injuries, Jones is still the third most targeted WR in the league.  The Titans simply have not faced an offense like this all season, and a healthy Jones will devastate them like Mike Ditka does his co-hosts.

3. LeSean McCoy will be a top three RB this week (PPR special): 

Another candidate for a pick that would not have been bold before the season started, Shady McCoy has posted lackluster numbers so far this season, mainly due to injuries.   But, finally healthy again, he posted a respectable 90 yards and a TD last week against a stout Cincy defense last week, and he seems poised to break out this week against Jacksonville in London.  More importantly, McCoy is the type of dual threat RB that has shredded the Jags this season.  Sure, they’re actually pretty decent against the run, but they’re still the Jaguars.  RBs are averaging more than five receptions per game against the Jags, and Shady should eclipse that with ease.  McCoy also has just one TD this season, and that will change this weekend when I believe he will score twice.

4. Both Tampa Bay RBs should be started this week, together: 

It pains me to right this, but you wouldn’t be crazy for starting both Tampa RBs this weekend, especially in DFS where the combo presents great value.  The muscle hamster Doug Martin is starting to live up to his preseason reemergence hype, and Charles Sims has proven to be a fantasy worth PPR machine.   The Redskins rushing defense has become laughable for some reason over the last few weeks, having been gashed by DeVonta Freeman and Chris Ivory.  Sims has double digit fantasy points in three straight games, and Martin has piled up nearly 230 yards and three scores in his last two games.  Start these Bucs and start counting yours (see what I did there?).

5. Matt Jones will lead the NFC East in rushing if healthy:   

Yeah, this sounds crazy, and maybe it is.  But who is he competing with, and honestly it won’t take a ton of yards to lead the NFC East?  Alfred Morris can’t do anything for the Redskins, and every other team seems plagued by RBBCs of varying degrees of ineffectiveness.  Other than Ryan Matthews, he’s the only RB getting any carries in the NFC east that averages more than four yards per carry.  He’s missed a game due to injury and is easily within striking distance of Demarco Murray, Rashad Jennings, Joseph Randle and Morris for the conference lead.  The Skins need a spark in the running game, and he could give it to them, even behind a makeshift o-line.  Pick him back up if you dropped him recently, just in case I’m right.

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