By Andrew Morton
First let me start by elaborating on how i pick my batters. While i still take into consideration things like BvP, wOBA, splits, ect. One of the most important factors, for me anyway, is the “Fantasy Production Indicator” (FPI) of a player or fantasy points per plate appearance (FP/PA). It has served me fairly well thus far and has a no less than 70% accuracy in projecting player values (up or down) excluding injuries. My value picks will always be at or under $2,900 (averaging $2500) and I’m looking to spend $250+/- of player salary per fantasy point (or more than 1FP) example: if i spend $2500 on a player I’m going to want at least 10FP. Brandon Drury for example is $2500 and I’m Expecting roughly 11FP that means I’ve spent $227.2 per fantasy point which is great value.
A further explanation can be found here http://www.insiderbaseball.com/Angelo-v2.htm
That being said, I also make my picks based on the fact i primarily play in tournaments. While some value plays might be ok for cash games my favorites will be strictly for tournament use. So let’s start in that order from least to greatest.
5. Brandon Belt 1b $2,900
Zach Greieke has a 4.37 ERA in 26 starts last season, which is less than impressive, and averages 35% less FP(fantasy points) while at home. Park rating is good for hitters, in which he gave up .335 wOBA and 35.4% hard-hit rate. The splits are there and Belt has just over 3 fp/pa.
4. Brandon Crawford SS $2,900
Continuing to attack Greieke as I’m sure many will for the same reasons stated above, Crawford has the splits and has roughly 2 1/2 fp/pa.
I Also like Hunter Pence for his price and multiple stats including BvP and reverse splits with roughly 3.2 fp/pa however he doesn’t do well away from home.
3. Brandon Drury 2b $2,500
Arizona’s overall stats are actually pretty fair vs. Lefties only because of their strikeout rate not being ideal. However not against Bumgarner. If anyone under $2.9k goes yard on MadBum my money is on Drury. The splits are great. The park is great and He averages almost 13.5 FPPG in the last 30 home games.
I also want to mention Yasmany Tomas. His stats vs. Lefties are ridiculously impressive. He’s not going to steal you any bases but if last year is any indication of his performance this year, I’m not afraid to play him against Bumgarner in gpp.
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2. Corey Dickerson OF 2,800
Tanaka is statistically pretty good vs. LHH and it’s not the most ideal park but Dickerson is pretty outstanding against RHP. He’s Averaging a little over 3 fantasy points per plate appearance. Not only that but vs. Tanaka, Dickerson is hitting
.357/.445/.357 and roughly 2.9 fp/pa. He’ll most likely be DH and I honestly expect him to be the most valuable fantasy player today only because of ownership percentages.
1. Greg Bird 1b $2,400
You know, I really don’t know what to say. He intrigued me because i didn’t know who he was.(baseball isn’t my favorite sport however it is by far my favorite and strongest in DFS) He absolutely killed it in spring training. I thought to myself I’m playing that dude if i can, as i keep seeing his name in headlines. He was named first baseman and that day smashed 2 homeruns. Then he broke a Yankee spring home run record of like 11 years. I love the analyzing the statistics to get the best matchup but sometimes you just know.
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