Four Down Territory: NFL Week 8

First Down

We’re halfway through the season and it’s time to reassess and project how the next nine weeks will unfold. Let’s start out north.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh 4-2-1 (Next 3: @BAL, CAR, @JAK)
2. Cincinnati 5-3 (Next 3: BYE, NO, @BAL)
3. Ravens 4-4 (Next 3: PIT, CIN, OAK)
4. Browns 2-5-1 (Next 3: KC, ATL, @CIN)

The AFC North is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in all of football. The Bengals have lost Tyler Eifert for the year but still have a winning record. The measuring stick for these Bengals is not what they do in the regular season but how they play when the playoffs roll around. That is, if they even make the playoffs. The Steelers have found their groove even with the Le’Veon Bell drama floating around. The offense is one of the tops in the league. The Ravens lead the league in total defense but at 4-4 it’s going to be tough to make up ground. The Browns…well they just fired their head coach and offensive coordinator and put Greg Williams in charge. You know, the same Greg Williams that was the center of Bountygate in New Orleans. In other words, the Browns are the Browns.

NFC North

1. Chicago 4-3 (Next 3: @BUF, DET, MIN)
2. Minnesota 4-3 (Next 3: DET, BYE, @CHI)
3. Green Bay 3-3 (Next 3: @NE, MIA, @SEA)
4. Detroit 3-4 (Next 3: @MIN, @CHI, CAR)

The NFC North is WIDE OPEN. Chicago has the potential to be elite but hasn’t put it all together yet. The Packers had a chance for a huge win in LA against the Rams but Ty Montgomery had different plans.

https://twitter.com/MusikFan4Life25/status/1056765635496198144

The story behind Ty’s fumble is quite fascinating. A man’s ego will ruin him faster than anything. Remember that, kids. Kirk Cousins‘ big game ghosts are haunting him in Minnesota but the weapons around him can definitely keep them in contention.

While we’re here let’s make it clear that Adam Thielen is not a top 3 receiver. He’s great and his story is inspirational and will most likely be a Hallmark film one day but you can’t look anyone in the eye and say, “I’ll take Adam over Odell, AB, Julio, Hopkins, Green, or Thomas.”  You just can’t.

Detroit can get right back in the swing of things if they can win their next two games. The catch? They’re both road divisional matches.

Second Down

AFC South

1. Houston 5-3 (Next 3: @DEN, BYE, TEN)
2. Tennessee 3-4 (Next 3: @DAL, NE, @IND)
3. Indianapolis 3-5 (Next 3: BYE, JAK, TEN)
4. Jacksonville 3-5 (Next 3: BYE, @IND, PIT)

What a difference a few weeks make. After week three Jacksonville was 2-1 with an impressive win over the Patriots. Since then they’ve gone 1-4 and are in real danger of missing the playoffs after making the AFC championship game last year. Their offense is putrid and my thoughts aren’t that secret. Meanwhile, Houston started 0-3 and looked lost. Now they’ve won five straight and Deshaun Watson looks unstoppable. It also helps to have a guy on your squad that can make NFL Street catches.

https://twitter.com/barstooltweetss/status/1055648911325626368

It doesn’t matter if he pushed off, it’s the catch of the year. The Colts and Titans are meh and no one outside of those fanbases are paying attention so I won’t waste your time either.

NFC South

1. New Orleans 6-1 (Next 3: LAR, @CIN, PHI)
2. Carolina 5-2 (Next 3: TB, @PIT, @DET)
3. Atlanta 3-4 (Next 3: @WAS, @CLE, DAL)
4. Tampa Bay 3-4 (Next 3: @CAR, WAS, @NYG)

This division is a two horse race in New Orleans and Carolina. Cam Newton is on fire this year and leads a gritty Panthers team that can win dirty, which is needed in the playoffs. New Orleans and Drew Brees are scoring in bunches and there aren’t many teams that can keep up. The Falcons might be the biggest mystery in the league but injuries have halted their season. Tampa Bay is a dumpster fire and you’ll probably start seeing their scouting department at Oregon games. Yeah, it’s gotten that bad.

Third Down

AFC East

1. New England 6-2 (Next 3: GB, @TEN, BYE)
2. Miami 4-4 (Next 3: NYJ, @GB, BYE)
3. New York Jets 3-5 (Next 3: @MIA, BUF, BYE)
4. Buffalo 2-6 (Next 3: CHI, @NYJ, BYE)

The only thing any of these teams have in common with New England is that they share a bye week. Other than that this division has, and will, belong to Tom Brady until he calls it a career and probably a couple years after that. I mean….the second place dolphins are starting Brock Osweiler. BROCK OSWEILER!

While Brock Osweiler’s accuracy issues are not fixable, it was very encouraging to see how often Devante Parker for open vs the Texans. He was open A LOT on his best game in the NFL. He can do much more if he stays healthy & when Tannehill comes back. pic.twitter.com/DNtMru4yz7

— Omar Kelly (@OmarKelly) October 29, 2018

NFC East

1. Washington 5-2 (Next 3: ATL, @TB, HOU)
2. Philadelphia 4-4 (Next 3: BYE, DAL, @NO)
3. Dallas 3-4 (Next 3: TEN, @PHI, @ATL)
4. New York Giants 1-7 (Next 3: @SF, TB, @PHI)

The NFC East is interesting. The defending Super Bowl champions have blown two fourth quarter leads and have been overtaken by injury. Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson has found the fountain of youth and leads a Washington team that can start running away with a win against Atlanta on Sunday. Dallas went all in for Amari Cooper and is within striking distance. The Giants…well at least they can watch Saquon ball and, if they’re lucky, find a way to get Derek Carr to Big Blue this offseason. Remember when Pat Shurmer and David Gettleman made fun of analytics back in April? It won’t be hard counting to one since that’s the spot they’ll be picking in the draft.

Fourth Down

AFC West

1. Kansas City 7-1 (Next 3: @CLE, AZ, @LAR)
2. Los Angeles Chargers 5-2 (Next 3: @SEA, @OAK, DEN)
3. Denver 3-5 (Next 3: HOU, BYE, @LAC)
4. Oakland 1-6 (Next 3: @SF, BYE, LAC)

The Chiefs are  arguably the best team in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes in the MVP and the cupboard of weapons is overflowing. The Chargers are a good team and may make it in as a wild card but the AFC West, and the AFC, will have to go through Arrowhead Stadium. The Jon Gruden era has started off with a firesale and even though they’ve reassured Carr that he’s there guy he better be looking at real estate in New York or Tampa Bay. Gruden has hit the reset button which leads to a $100 million question. If he’s the QB whisperer he’s painted to be then why is he getting rid of a guy that was an MVP candidate two years ago?

NFC West

1. Los Angeles Rams 8-0 (Next 3: @NO, SEA, KC)
2. Seattle 4-3 (Next 3: LAC, @LAR, GB)
3. Arizona 2-6 (Next 3: BYE, @KC, OAK)
4. San Francisco 1-7 (Next 3: OAK, BYE, @TB)

The Rams are the best team in football. That’s all the analysis one needs.

Extra Points

Here are my playoff and awards projections.

AFC

1. Kansas City
2. New England
3. Houston
4. Pittsburgh
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Baltimore

Wild Card: Houston def. Baltimore and LAC def. Pittsburgh

Divisional: Kansas City def. LAC and New England def. Houston

Title Game: Kansas City def. New England and advances to the Super Bowl

NFC

1. Los Angeles Rams
2. New Orleans
3. Washington
4. Green Bay
5. Carolina
6. Chicago

Wild Card: Chicago def. Washington and Carolina def. Green Bay

Divisional: LAR def. Chicago and New Orleans def. Carolina

Title Game: New Orleans def. LAR and advances to the Super Bowl

Super Bowl: Kansas City def. New Orleans and Patrick Mahomes wins MVP.

Awards

• League MVP: Patrick Mahomes
• Coach of the Year: Andy Reid
• Offensive Player of the Year: Todd Gurley 
• Defensive Player of the Year: Aaron Donald
• Rookie of the Year: Saquon Barkley
• Offensive Rookie of the Year: Calvin Ridley 
• Defensive Rookie of the Year: Derwin James

@ me: madads14 

As always, thanks for reading.

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