Every week during the NFL season, I’ll be sharing my FanDuel cash game (50/50’s, Double Ups and Head to Head) line up. Cash games are a great way to build up your bankroll without as much risk as Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments.
For those unfamiliar with cash games, roster construction differs in some ways than GPPs. In GPPs, our line up needs to finish in the top 15% or so to simply cash, so we’re looking for those boom or bust players to roster with our studs, to stay under the salary cap. In cash games, we merely have to finish in the top 45-50% with a score of about 120, which usually gets us there, so we look to replace those boom or bust layers with much safer players, who may lack the high ceiling to help win a GPP who can be reasonably expected to return 2X value (if a player’s salary is $6,000, then we’d need him to score 12 fantasy points).
Before I get into my LU for the week, some general thoughts going into Week14:
- We’re getting to that point in the season in which teams are being eliminated from the playoffs. Give those players a bump down in your research as coaches may want to give other players some snaps and some players have stopped caring. Also give players on teams still in contention a bump up.
The blocks I like to check for my QB include a good match up with a bottom 10 pass defense, a high Vegas implied total and for him to be on the team that is the slight favorite. Â Ideally, we want a mobile QB, as those rushing yards provide a nice floor. Finally, check the weather reports for strong winds or torrential rains.
QB Alex Smith ($8,200) Smith came back to life against the Jets last week and the Chiefs will need him to stay hot. They’re tied with the Raiders and Chargers for the division lead and face the struggling Raiders pass defense this week (32nd DVOA) with a healthy Vegas inspired total of 25.5 points.
At the RB position, I’m looking for most of the same blocks to check.  I’m also looking for a three down back, but they’re becoming rare and are usually expensive, so I often settle for a two down back (but not a committee RB) who also handles short yardage duties.
RB Alfred Morris ($6,800) The Cowboys rediscovered the fact that if they want to win, they need to run the ball. While he’s not Zeke Elliott, Morris does have multi 1000 yards rushing seasons and sees a 24th ranked DVOA rushing defense that’s just playing out this disaster of a season.
RB Giovani Bernard ($5,100) With the injury on MNF to Joe Mixon, Bernard should have the backfield to himself at a very cheap price. The Bears are middle of the pack against running backs, but the volume should more than make up for a middling match up.
For WRs, I’m looking for the same things I’m looking for in my QB, but I’m looking for them to be slight underdogs. I also look for a receiver who’s the QBs #1 target. Targets lead to points, so the best way to ensure your receivers return value is to ensure they get plenty of opportunities. I also avoid rookies until they prove themselves. Coaches are conservative and a rookie has to earn the coach’s trust to make it onto the field and then earn the QB’s trust to start getting targets.
WR DeAndre Hopkins ($8,600) Even with Will Fuller expected back, Hopkins should continue to see a steady volume of targets against a 49ers pass defense ranked 30th against the pass and 26th against opposing #1 WRs.
WR Larry Fitzgerald ($7,600) Ever the steady target monster, Fitzgerald has developed some good chemistry with Blaine Gabbert, seeing 28 targets in Gabbert’s three starts. The consummate professional, Fitz should be looking forward to facing a Titans defense ranked 25th against the pass.
WR Josh Gordon ($6,700) Gordon, who led the league in receiving yards in 2013, seems to finally have his personal life together, probably realizing this is his last chance. In his first game back last week, he was targeted 11 times and will be squaring off against a leaky Packers secondary (29th vs #1 WRs.)
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Statistics show that TEs on teams favored at home, with a Vegas implied total of 22 or more points have the best chance to return the highest value.
TE Travis Kelce ($8,000) Kelce is the most talented TE on this slate, boasting a 66/871/7 stat line on 95 targets. He’s essentially a #1 WR playing TE. I highlighted the Raiders struggles against the pass, but they’re particularly bad against enemy TEs, coming in at 27th against the position.
Kickers are a crapshoot, but these four blocks will help tremendously: high Vegas total, favored to win (he’ll be more likely to kick 4th quarter FGs if the team is winning rather than be sitting on the bench, watching his team go for it on 4th down), playing at home and playing in a dome.
K Phil Dawson ($4,500) He checks the blocks and he’s cheap.
Defenses aren’t that difficult. They score their point primarily with sacks, turnovers and defensive TDs. Therefore, I target teams with bad QBs and look for defenses with a strong pass rush and/or secondary. Bad QBs throw more interceptions and hold the ball longer, leading to more sacks.
DEF Dallas Cowboys ($4,400) The Cowboys are 10th in the NFL with 32 sacks and square off against the bad and injured Giants offensive line that will be trying to protect an immobile Eli Manning.
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