It has been a hectic week for me, so I apologize for not getting up more articles this week. My NFL article is coming out a little later than normal, so it obviously won’t include the Thanksgiving games, but there are plenty of games to look at for this weekend and some great matchups across the board. Before we get started, here is the format…

Explosive Play – In the real-world NFL an explosive play is defined as any play over 20 yards, and those type of plays will typically win you football games. In the DFS world, an explosive play is a player that I think has the potential to put up huge fantasy production, based on his matchup, recent performance, and his history against the opposing team. Theses are the plays you need to win in the DFS world.

Deep Threat – A deep threat is a second or third tier player that I think will outperform their price on FanDuel, giving you the best Return on Investment (ROI).

Punt Play – This term is pretty universal — typically a GPP play only. It’s a player that has an outside shot to have a great game and will most likely me low-owned in large tournaments.

Missed Tackle – A missed tackle is a first or second tier player that I’ll be avoiding — be it because of the match-up, weather conditions, or recent performance.

*note* I will not include kickers, because, well, they are kickers.

Quarterbacks

Explosive Play Carson Palmer, Cardinals $8100

Only two QBs average more fanduel points than Palmer (Tom Brady and Drew Brees) and only four teams have given up more points to QBs this season. That’s a recipe for a huge game from Palmer.

Deep Threat Eli Manning, Giants $7700

The last three games for Manning versus the Redskins yielded scores of 33, 22, and 19 fanduel points for him. This game represents first place in the division, expect Manning and the Giants to be ready to put up some big number against the Redskins porous secondary.

Punt Play Brian Hoyer, Texans $7100

Hoyer has put up some decent fanduel scores when he has been able to start and finish games. His opponent, the Saints, on the other hand, have yielded 28 and 33 points to QBs over their last two games, those QBs names are Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota respectively. Not exactly Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, huh? In fact, the Saints are giving up the most fantasy points to QBs on the season, and they are five points per game worse than the second team on that list. To put that into perspective to just how bad that is, the Giants are the second worst team in this category and if you were to go five points below what they give up per game you would land of the Seahawks. The Seahawks are third best in this category. The Saints are bad.

Missed Tackle Andy Dalton, Bengals $7900

Only one team gives up fewer fantasy points to opposing QBs on the season than do the St. Louis Rams. At a paltry 14 points allowed per game this year, the Rams represent the worst matchup Dalton will face all year. No thanks.

Running Backs

Explosive Play Adrian Peterson, Vikings $9000

Normally I try not to put the highest priced player at the position on sheer principle, it just seems like a cop-out, but, in this case, AP is head and shoulders above the other running backs because of his matchup. Only the Chargers and 49ers give up more points to opposing running backs than do the Falcons.

Deep Threat Doug Martin, Bucs $7500

Apparently all that “Doug Martin is back to his rookie form” preseason talk was legit. After his 235 yard explosion last week versus the Eagles, he gets another cupcake matchup against the Colts this weekend.

Punt Play Thomas Rawls, Seahawks $6300

Rawls has a huge game at home versus the horrible defense of the 49ers. The Steelers are actually pretty good versus the run, but the Seahawks are a team that will not abandon the run. Sheer volume alone makes him a good play, and he will get all the goal-line carries.

Missed Tackle LeGarrette Blount, Patriots $7300

No one knows what Bill Belichick is going to cook up in the way of a game plan, but if I were game-planning for the best defense in the league in the Broncos, lining up and running at them isn’t the answer. My guess is they do what they always do, short high percentage throws and a lot of Rob Gronkowski over the middle.

Wide Receivers

Explosive Play DeAndre Hopkins, Texans $9400

I went back and forth with Hopkins and Odell Beckham, Jr on this one. Either one should be good today, and you can stack either one of them with their respective QBs.

Deep Threat Mike Evans, Bucs $8100

Last week I predicted Evans would not have the gaudy yardage he had in past weeks, but that he would find the end zone. He did just that. This week he may draw the coverage of Vontae Davis, but Davis could be somewhat limited with a hamstring that kept him out of last weeks game. Evans is good enough to get opened against Davis and Jameis Winston has shown he isn’t afraid to throw it anywhere on the field.

Punt Play Keshawn Martin, Patriots $4900

Assuming he plays and assuming Danny Amendola does not, it leaves the Patriots extremely short-handed. I expect the Patriots to throw and throw a ton. Those passes have to go to someone.

Missed Tackle A.J. Green, Bengals $8200

Three straight single digit games and a matchup with the second-best pass defense in the league. No thanks.

Tight Ends

Explosive Play Gary Barnidge, Browns $6500 

Barnidge has been the best tight end not named Gronkowski this season, and he gets a great matchup with the Ravens who can’t stop anyone in the passing game.

Deep Threat Jordan Reed, Redskins $5800

Giants give up the third most points to tight ends on the season and Jordan had his best game of the season, in terms of yardage (96 yds), against the Giants in their first meeting this year.

Punt Play Julius Thomas, Jaguars $5300

Thomas was the most targeted receiver for the Jags last week and if he gets that many targets against a struggling Chargers defense he may get a touchdown…or two.

Missed Tackle Jimmy Graham, Seahawks $5,500

Graham has four games in the last 10 games with double-digit fanduel points, but in the other six games he has fewer than six points. Even in a good matchup with the Steelers I want no part of Graham.

Defense

Explosive Play Cardinals @ 49ers $5300

Did you see what the Cardinals did to the 49ers in their first matchup? No? Well, let’s just say, as a 49er fan, I wish I hadn’t seen it either.

Deep Threat Browns vs Ravens $4600

Mr. Pick 6 himself will get the start at QB for the injured Joe Flacco. Did you know that when Matt Schaub was playing in Houston, a restaurant created a burger named after him where you got 6 toppings of your choice for free, and they called that burger “The Pick 6”? True story.

Punt Play Bucs @ Colts

In four of the Bucs last six games, they have scored double-digit fanduel points, with their best game coming against the Eagles last week. A matchup with a 40-year old starting QB, no matter how well he has played this year, could mean another double-digit day.

Missed Tackle Seahawks vs Steelers

The Seahawks haven’t been “The Seahawks” at home this year. They are still a top defense, but no one is afraid of them at home anymore. Big Ben and the Steelers, despite the loss of Le’Veon Bell, are a top offense week in and week out.

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