Is Chris Thompson’s ADP rising to an unrealistic level?

RB Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins
2017 Stats: 64 carries, 294 yds, 2 TD; 39 rec., 510 yds, 4 TD

In the nine games he finished last year, Chris Thompson had more than 15 fantasy points (ESPN PPR scoring) six times. In the 10 games he played prior to suffering a fractured right fibula in Week 11 against the New Orleans Saints, Thompson posted a least 9.7 fantasy points (ESPN PPR scoring) eight times.

Early this month, Thompson acknowledged he might not be completely healthy until November. But there’s no doubt about his status for Week 1, and his role as the Redskins’ passing down remains unchallenged.

Rookie Derrius Guice was in line for a lead role in Washington’s backfield, but he suffered a torn ACL in the preseason opener and is out for the season. Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine are now in line for early down work, in a likely carry split of some sort, as the Redskins appear likely to stand pat with the rest of their currently running backs.

The Redskins have tilted toward the pass under Jay Gruden, and that may move even more in that direction this year now that Guice is out.

Even with six missed games last year, Thompson finished as RB28 in ESPN leagues last year. His per game pace (15.1 fantasy points per game) would have put him at RB8 in ESPN leagues (default PPR), with a traditional statistical pace of 102 carries for 470 yards, 62 catches (on 86 targets) for 816 yards and nine total touchdowns (six receiving) over a full season.

In the wake of Guice’s injury, Kelley and Perine are now draftable in a certain light. But Thompson’s ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator (12-team leagues) has skyrocketed, basically a full round in both standard and PPR leagues just since Friday when it was announced Guice has a torn ACL.

In PPR leagues, Thompson is now in RB3 territory as RB37 (pick 7.12). If that ADP rises much more, in line with his 2017 finish?, the downside will start to outweigh the upside. But he’s in line to benefit from Guice’s absence more than other Redskins’ running backs, with a passing game role and the prospect of more early down work.

Chris Thompson 2018 Projection: 85 carries for 385 yards, 2 TD; 52 receptions for 475 yards, 4 TD
Bye: Week 4

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