Unfortunately, the move to Las Vegas will likely come during the process of a complete rebuild. For fans like me, a non-Oakland resident living in enemy territory, the announcement of a move to Sin City was met with excitement. Nothing against the city of Oakland but it’s not exactly the greatest tourist attraction. Now, I’m more concerned if we’ll have a team worth even venturing to the bright lights of Las Vegas. The excitement has been replaced by heartbreak and the future looks to get darker before the sun shines again on The Nation.
12-4 seems like a decade ago. Derek Carr looked like an MVP candidate for years to come. Khalil Mack looked like the
reincarnation of Lawrence Taylor. Who could have imagined that only 1 and a half seasons later, we would be in need of a complete teardown and rebuild.
And Jon Gruden isn’t exactly the blame of all blame.
The implosion of the Raiders started years before ‘Chucky” arrived. Reggie Mckenzie, known for draft day gems, has only hit on 1 of his 4 drafts before this year. And with Mack gone and Carr struggling, even the 2014 draft is looking like a bust.
Let start with the 2013 NFL Draft. Our 1st, 2nd and 3rd round draft picks were all busts and are no longer with the team. 2 of those picks, CB DJ Hayden and OLB Sio Moore, each played positions that we have greatly struggled at over the years. To top it all off, we used a developmental pick in the 2nd round pick in OT Menelik Watson. In fact, none of our 2013 drafts picks are even on the team, most aren’t even in the league anymore or buried on rosters.
Now fast forward a year, the draft that had all of Raider Nation hoping that the past decade was in our rear view.
Khalil Mack was a can’t miss prospect and a game changer. He was the start of what would be an A+ draft class for the Oakland Raiders. We followed it up with arguably the best QB in the draft, a born leader in Derek Carr.
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In the 3rd round, Reggie McKenzie did what he was known for in Green Bay, draft starters in the later rounds when he grabbed G, Gabe Jackson. Even ‘Jelly” Justin Ellis and TJ Carrie looked like promising pieces to the puzzle.
And this is where it gets cloudy.
Although Reggie was able to grab prize free agents Kelechi Osemele and Rodney Hudson, he also brought in wildcards Bruce Irvin and Michael Crabtree. A Reggie Nelson here and a Jarod Cook there and the Raiders looked like a team ready to compete. And don’t forget “Beastmode”, ‘That’s My Son’, Marshawn Lynch.
Even HC Jack Del Rio looked like an awesome addition at the time. Like Lynch, he was an Oakland native.
The 2014-15 season was tough as we started 0-10. However, we finished 3-3 while Carr and Mack were showing signs of becoming the franchise players we so desperately needed.
The following year we would draft Amari Cooper, a top flight WR capable of being a #1 receiver and Carr’s go-to guy.
Unfortunately, the Cooper pick was followed by busts Mario Edwards Jr, Clive Walford and Ben Henney.
Things still looked promising though as the Raiders would go 7-9 in the 2015 season. They showed promise and competed in many of their losses. Carr was being compared to a young Aaron Rodgers and Khalil Mack, well, ask Denver what it feels like to give up 5 sacks to one player in a game.
However, if you’re following the pattern here, we once again fell short in the draft. In 2016 we used our 1st round pick on a developmental prospect, Karl Joseph. In the 2nd round, we drafted another developmental prospect in Jihad Ward. Calhoun and Cook never contributed and DeAndre Washington has been put on the back burner.
It didn’t matter though, in the short term anyway, as we would surprise everybody and the finish the season 12-4 and earn a playoff berth for the first time in over a decade in 2016. However, we would lose Derek Carr to a season-ending injury and our Super Bowl chances were left for dead. It was a fitting ending for what, hindsight being 20/20, our franchise would be facing in the years to come.
2017 was another dismal draft as 1st round pick Gereon Conley barely saw the field in his rookie year and was benched in the Seattle game. S Obi Melifonwu was waived this past off-season and 3rd rounder Eddie Vanderdoes showed promise before hitting the IR. Marquel Lee may be the only bright spot of the 2017 draft.
A 6-10 season left fans pondering the direction of the organization. Head Coach Jack Del Rio created a cancerous locker room with his laidback style. WR Michael Crabtree seemed uninterested all season and the inconsistency of Cooper began to look like more than rookie season jitters. The massive O-Line was up and down all season and nowhere near as dominant as the previous season, Donald Penn was injured again and Bruce Irvin just seemed average for most of the season.
Which led to the heartbreaking departure of our beloved Mack in the most recent off-season and a truth that no one wants to admit, Derek Carr looks to never be the same since his injury in 2016.
Look, blame Gruden all you want but the writing has been on the wall this whole time and I believe Mack saw it and was willing to pull a Le’veon Bell type holdout. It was heartbreaking but at least we got something in return. The most glaring questions though should focus on an injury prone, less talented and inconsistent roster that was put together long before Gruden got here and started cleaning house.
Let’s start with the offense and the future at every position.
Our offensive line was once one of the most vicious and dominant groups in the entire league. Now we’re below average and getting Carr leveled week after week. Unfortunately, we’ve tied a lot of money and draft picks to this group and they need to find their old form because we’re stuck with them for the time being.
–LT Kolton Miller will be a solid LT for a decade barring injuries. Unfortunately, he’s already hitting a rookie slump and Carr is suffering from it.
–LG Kelechi Osemele is an A+ run blocker but is being abused in the pass game and now has missed 2 games in a row due to injury. He is due 21 million total in 2019/20 so we just have to wait it out in hopes that he returns to his pro bowl form.
–C Rodney Hudson is the best at his position and still only 29. However, his contract is up at the end of next season. I doubt he’ll be willing to re-sign if we put together 3 losing seasons in a row.
–RG Gabe Jackson looked a pro bowler just 2 years ago but now he’s inconsistent and not the dominant player he was becoming. However, he’s still talented and on a team friendly deal.
–RT Donald Penn/Chris Parker– Penn once again is on IR and I highly doubt he’s on the roster next year. Parker is green and far behind the learning curve. I don’t believe anyone envisioned him playing next year let alone this year.
Our Running Back group needs a major overhaul.
–Marshawn Lynch still has some juice in the tank but he isn’t a long-term solution and I can’t see him sticking around another year. And now with the groin injury, why risk a long-term injury, let Lynch go out on his own terms.
–Jalen Richard is being under-utilized, he’s a valuable weapon and needs to see more touches. He’ll never be a featured back but he has enough game-breaking attributes to justify a roster spot and extended playing time with Lynch injured.
–Doug Martin shouldn’t even be on the roster.
–Deandre Washington should replace Martin next year but we’ll need a lead back probably as early as next season.
–Chris Warren is on the IR for the time being and if we don’t address the position early in the draft or free agency, give this bruising bull a chance.
Our WR/TE corps is too inconsistent at all 4 spots and is part of the reason for Carr’s depression
–Amari Cooper is ultra talented and a game changer. Unfortunately, he lacks the fire that the top WRs around the league have. He’ll enter the final year of his contract next season and depending on what he’s looking for, Cooper should be around for many years to come.
–Jordy Nelson was a quick fix and replacement for Crabtree. He brings leadership and a veteran presence and can still make plays as evident in the Miami game. He’s a short-term answer though, showing flashes of his old self at moments but he’s surely on the downside of his stellar career.
–Seth Roberts looked like a solid 3 two years ago but drops, non-progression and a faltering offense has led to his demise. He’s on a team friendly deal so expect to see him around here for a few more years.
–Martavius Bryant is probably the most talented and athletic we have at the position. Unfortunately, he lacks 9 out of 10 marbles upstairs and only knows 2 routes, the go and the underneath cross. I’m still holding out that he will become the game changer we need.
– Jarod Cook is a nightmare matchup and capable of taking over a game. Yet, he disappears for quarters at a time and he might prove to be more of an asset as trade bait. If we could steal a 3rd rounder for Cook, it might be in our best interest.
We’ll save QB for last and move onto the defense.
Our Defense is atrocious and I can see 3 or 4 guys who aren’t or shouldn’t be, replaceable.
The DE position needs to be fixed and fixed fast.
–Bruce Irvin is proving to be not worth the headache of pointless personal fouls, one after another. He was serviceable when he had Mack on the other side but now he’s just an overpriced, non-contributing factor. His attitude on the field can turn detrimental in the locker room and towards the younger players. I would look to trade or release Irvin at years end.
–Arden Key can be a future star and I love what I’m seeing from the LSU product. Key has the burst, athleticism and freak abilities to be the edge rusher we need with Mack gone. It’s going to take reps and time though but I think we have something special in Key
–Frostee Rucker, Fadol Brown and Shilique Calhoun are all replaceable and don’t pose a significant future in the development of the defense.
Our DT’s are young, hungry and serviceable.
–PJ Hall can play and although we drafted him 3 rounds too early, let’s hope he proves everyone wrong.
–Maurice Hurst was a steal in the draft and flashes all over the game film. I love his burst, pad level play and tenacity in the trenches. Hurst and Key could be the pivotal pieces in rebuilding the defense.
Our LB crew has been disappointing to say the least and we are in desperate need of an upgrade at all 3 positions.
–Tahir Whitehead looked like a nice acquisition in free agency but he hasn’t provided much presence on the field. He’ll more than likely be around for the foreseeable future because of his contract.
-Marquel Lee is young but shows so many signs of promise. The biggest thing is consistency and coverage in the passing game. If he can improve in those areas, we may have a starting MLB for years to come.
The strongside linebacker needs to be replaced and filled with a coverage linebacker who can hold his own in the run game.
The CB room needs to be torn down and revamped.
I still have high hopes for Gareon Conley even if he ends up as a solid #2 or nickel corner. Injuries have hampered his progression and now he’s riding the bench. Hopefully, he’s back on the field after the bye week and his confidence is repaired.
–Rashaan Melvin and Daryl Worley should both be replaced. They don’t have the tools to be starting CB’s in this league.
–Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a desperate fill in and he’s visibly a shell of his former self.
Our Safety position is in need a major overhaul.
–Reggie Nelson was a pivotal factor in our 12-4 season and return to the playoffs but let’s face it, he’s lost more than 1 step and he’s not the ball hawk he was once.
–Michael Gilcrest is 29 so a long-term future shouldn’t be in the cards. However, you can’t replace the whole roster so he’ll probably be back next year.
–Karl Joseph looked like a great pick but he never developed nor materialized into an impact player and has fallen out of favor with the new coaching staff. He has no real trade value outside a 4th or lower round pick.
–Erik Harris flashes on game film and with Nelson aging, he could slide in as the starter next year and hold it down until we’re in a position to upgrade the position.
Now, the moment everyone skipped to, Derek Carr.
Look, something is wrong with him. Whether it’s a confidence issue or he’s still feeling the side effects of his injury, he just isn’t the same player anymore. He no longer reads the defense at the line as he did. He no longer shows the poise in the pocket or under pressure and the hits are starting to pile up.
I just can’t see us starting over though.
Franchise level QB’s don’t grow on trees and although our ‘Carr’ is rumbling and the gears are grinding, it isn’t completely broke down.
The line needs to hold up their end of the bargain as well as the receivers. Not everything is on Carr’s shoulders, the team itself is in ruins and will not get back on track until we have a foundation to build on.
The rebuilding process starts with the 2019 NFL Draft where we’ll have 2, 1st rounders. It’s looking like our pick will be a top 5 and the Bears between 15-22. The Raiders will have a few options early in the Draft to grab a Defensive Lineman. Ohio St DE Nick Bosa and Houston DT Ed Oliver are capable of revamping our front 4 with Hurst and Key already in tow.
With the Bears pick, we can address the secondary or linebacking core. CB Deandre Baker or ILB’s Devin White/Anfernee Jennings could bolster the depth at their respective positions. In the 2nd round, we can stay on the defensive side and look to add another LB in Brian Burns or TJ Edwards. S Taylor Rapp would be a good addition if he’s available in the 2nd round. If not, let’s see if USC product Marvin Tell III rises on the draft boards.
We have to face it, the future isn’t bright but in the NFL, a few drafts and key free agents can turn around a franchise. I know it’s hard to say be patient when we’re just 12-4 two years ago but we’re far from obtaining and maintaining that kind of success. However, I believe Gruden can turn around this franchise and lead in the right direction.
Here are some key draft moments that have led to a lackluster roster and why we’re in the position we are.
2013 Key Draft misses DJ Hayden over Sheldon Richardson, Eric Reid, Xavier Rhodes and Deandre Hopkins. Menelik Watson over Kawann Short, Kiko Alonso, Le’veon Bell and Travis Kelce.
2015 Key Draft misses: Mario Edwards over Ronald Darby and Frank Clark. Clive Walford over Tyler Lockett and David Johnson.
2016 Key Draft misses: Fortunately for the Raiders, guys like Jaylon Smith and Miles Jack were injured and picked before us in the 2nd round, Although we didn’t miss on any game changers, there were plenty of roster building pieces we passed on like Darron Lee and James Bradberry.
2017 Key Draft misses: Gereon Conley over Takkarist McKinley, Tre’davious White, Taco Charlton, TJ Watt, Reuben Foster and Ryan Ramczyk. Oli Melifonwu over Zach Cunningham, Chidobe Awuze and JuJu Smith Schuster. Alvin Kamara, Cooper Kupp and Kareem Hunt followed in the 3rd,
2018 NFL Draft: Kolton Miller was needed as Donald Penn is once again injured and probably finished as a Raider. PJ Hill, who knows, I’ll give him another season before I pass judgment. Brandon Parker looks dreadful so far but I doubt any envisioned him playing this early. Maurice Hurst and Arden Key can flat out play and I am very excited to see their development.
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