Make Sure Xavier Hutchinson Is on Your Rookie Draft Board

Pros

Xavier Hutchinson is a redshirt senior wide receiver out of Iowa St. who was a consistent producer in college as a big part of the Cyclones’ offense despite subpar quarterback play. Hutchinson was a 3-star recruit out of high school and played two years at a junior college (Blinn College) before arriving at Iowa St. in 2020. Hutchinson has good size and is a well-rounded prospect. He is an underrated 2023 rookie who is sliding too far down in mock drafts and could be a good value pick for your dynasty roster.

Like Rashee Rice, Hutchinson’s Senior Bowl measurements revealed he was over an inch below his listed height, but he is still almost 6’2″ and a solid 207 lbs. Hutchinson lined up outside and in the slot at Iowa St. and got open from both positions. The NFL will like that kind of versatility. He can beat zone and had promising PFF grades versus man coverage.

Hutchinson displays good ball tracking and body positioning and extends his frame well to catch off-target passes. He has very good hands and runs his routes well. Hutchinson was a reliable open target over the middle and along the sideline. He won’t blow anyone away with his speed, but he is not slow for his size, either. He possesses enough football IQ, athleticism, and physicality to win routes in the NFL and gain some YAC, though he is not an explosive playmaker. Hutchinson didn’t get Tyjae Spears-level headlines during the Senior Bowl process, but reports were positive. That’s a good sign.

From an analytics perspective, there are some things to like about Hutchinson. He checks the “alpha” boxes for height, weight, and BMI, and his likely 40 time of under 4.5 checks that box and gives him speed scores over 100, another check. Hutichinson’s breakout age is right at 20. We usually want to see below that, but I’d also factor in his status as a JuCo transfer. Hutchinson checks the box for a dominator rating of 30+% at least once, career average receiving yards per team pass attempt of 2+, and best season EPA per play of 1+.

Cons

There is not a whole lot to dislike about Hutchinson. I think one reason Hutchinson goes under the radar is that he is not elite at any one thing; he doesn’t have a standout trait. He is just simply very good at just about everything.

Hutchinson is not a super-explosive player with elite speed, so he won’t be a big-time deep threat at the NFL level – he will succeed mainly in the intermediate area. This is also evident quantitatively in his middling aDOT and YAC/rec numbers. Additionally, Hutchinson occasionally had some rounded cuts in his routes.

From an analytics perspective, Hutchinson has some flaws. He won’t check the age box. He is 22 and will already be 23 in June, and he was not an early declare. Also, while his career production averages generally met the thresholds the analytics community looks for, no one season’s numbers at Iowa St. met the desired level for its respective year of experience (years 3 through 5).

In other words, in almost all categories in all three seasons at Iowa St., Hutchinson fell short of where he should be for his experience level relative to what we look for in wide receivers who have later had top-24 fantasy seasons. While his team’s prowess and his JuCo transfer status play a role, those statistical shortcomings are worth noting.

Summary

Xavier Hutchinson is a solid, well-rounded, bigger-bodied receiver prospect in a class that features many smaller wideouts. He has good NFL upside, and I currently have him rated as my WR8 in the 2023 rookie class. Hutchinson could have a pretty immediate impact as what I’d call a “possession receiver plus,” but will most likely not be a team’s WR1.

It remains to be seen if Hutchinson will get day 2 draft capital in the 2023 NFL Draft. I have seen him mocked there as a round 3 selection, but have also seen him projected as a 4th-rounder. I think as long as he can stay in the first four rounds, we can confidently draft him for our dynasty rosters as a solid WR3/flex asset.

As with Rice, there aren’t many NFL teams that couldn’t use a wide receiver like Hutchinson. Therefore, I like basically the same landing spots for him. Saints (72nd and 116th overall), Titans (73rd), Jets (75th and 113th), and Giants (90th, 101st, and 129th) seem like good fits. If the Texans (66th, 74th, and 105th) and Bears (65th, 104th, and 135th) don’t address wide receiver with earlier picks, they are also potential destinations.

Ideal Role: NFL WR2

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: late 2nd to early 4th

Player Comp: Jakobi Meyers, Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas