Mid-Late Round WRs That Can Return Top-15 Value

Mid-Late Round WRs That Can Return Top-15 Value

In the past few years, the NFL has seen a large influx of young, talented WRs who are ready to produce almost immediately for their respective teams. Players like Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Jamarr Chase, and Jaylen Waddle entered the league in the last three years, came out of the gate swinging, and immediately cemented themselves as top 20 WRs. This influx of talented wideouts makes it much easier to grab a stud RB, QB, and/or TE in the first 5 rounds and still be able to draft top-round talent in the later rounds.

Last year, Cooper Kupp went off the board, on average, as the 19th WR and 51st player overall. Kupp went on to finish as the overall WR1, and it wasn’t even remotely close. Also last year, you had Jamarr Chase, who was fairly heavily faded for drop concerns in camp and preseason games, he was drafted as the 26th WR, and 71st player overall.

As we all know, Chase went on to smash expectations and gained over 1,400 yards and 13 touchdowns. If you want to find the most impressive jump from last year’s ADP to end result, look no further than Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow was drafted as the 332nd player overall, and the 107th WR, and probably went undrafted in shallower leagues. He went on to rank 9th in receptions, tied for 9th in TDs, and posted the first 1,000-yard season of his career. 

This just goes to show that one of the best ways to win a league is to hit on WRs in the middle to late rounds after you’ve secured the core of your team. This enables you to go ahead and draft a top-5 QB, top-5 TE, a top-5 WR, or even grab a few stud RB’s in the first few rounds, and not have to worry about not having any production from your second or third WR. The reason for some of these breakouts is opportunity and volume, but there are other factors that are in play when looking for a WR breakout, such as a new QB, new coach or system, new team, trades, etc.

Here are five wide receivers I am looking to target outside of the top 24, per FantasyPros ECR (expert consensus rankings), and the reasons why I think they are due to outproduce their current pre-season rankings.

Marquise Brown (ECR: 25)

Last year, Marquise Brown flew under the radar on draft day, especially for a 25-year-old receiver with elite speed and quickness. He is a bit undersized at 5’9, but he still managed to go on and post a 1,000-yard season on a Ravens offense that is built predominantly around running the ball and controlling the time of possession. The main knock on him, besides his size, is he dropped a few touchdowns last year and tied for 6th for most drops.

That being said, he was traded to the Arizona Cardinals this offseason, which is a much more favorable environment for a receiver with the skill set of Brown. Deandre Hopkins is scheduled to miss the first six games of the season, so that gives Marquise Brown the opportunity to see the bulk of the targets, and be the clear number one receiver for Kyler Murray. Even when Hopkins returns, Brown should run a decent number of routes out of the slot, filling into Christian Kirk’s role last year. Those six games of being the clear WR1 should give him enough of a boost to help prop him up as a potential top receiver this year.

Elijah Moore (ECR: 26)

Over the last six games of 2021, Elijah Moore finished as the WR2 scoring 16.1 points per game, per FantasyPros. I’ve seen Moore get unfairly labeled as a slot receiver, when in reality, he ran 72.3% of his routes from the outside, per Reception Perception. Against man coverage, he was successful on 75.2% of his routes, including a 73.3% success rate against press coverage, per Reception Perception.

Combined with it being his rookie season, these numbers tell me that a breakout is imminent. It will only help that Zach Wilson should be much better this year, and the Jets drafted Garrett Wilson, who will contribute immediately. I see this only helping Elijah Moore, as it should make it less likely for double teams or being shadowed by a shut-down CB every snap. Big things are coming for Elijah Moore.

Rashod Bateman (ECR: 31)

In the offseason, the Ravens traded away Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals, after having a 23% target share in 2021. Rashod Bateman is more than capable of filling that void and actually has a great chance to outproduce the 1,000-yard season Brown put up last year. In the preseason of his rookie year, Bateman dealt with a groin injury that caused him to miss five games, and he re-aggravated it in week 9, but did not miss a game. I’m not sure if he was actually 100% last year, yet he still put up some pretty good numbers for a rookie.

Unlike Brown, Bateman shows the ability to gain separation from the outside almost effortlessly. Bateman is a seasoned route runner for his age and experience and should be able to effortlessly get open to give Lamar Jackson another solid option over the middle, besides Mark Andrews. This offense shows it can support two 1,000-yard receivers, and I think Bateman is poised for a huge season for the Ravens.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (ECR: 34)

It feels like ages ago that JuJu Smith-Schuster was touted as a top 10 WR for the Steelers and Big Ben. Last year JuJu suffered both rib and shoulder injuries, causing him to miss the final 12 games of the season. In 2018, as a 22-year-old, JuJu managed to compile 1,426 yards, on 166 targets, and 7 touchdowns. Even two years ago, in 2020, he accumulated 831 yards and 9 touchdowns, showing he can still contribute in a big way. JuJu is still only 25 years old, and just got traded to arguably the best offense and quarterback in the NFL.

I see him being a huge asset to the Chiefs’ offense and should be a lethal threat on short and intermediate routes over the middle. There is a large void to be filled with the departure of Tyreek Hill, and I think JuJu will be Mahomes’ number two option, after Travis Kelce. JuJu could be a potential league-winner if he can stay healthy and build a strong connection with Mahomes and Andy Reid.

Kadarius Toney (ECR: 50)

Kadarius Toney is by far the rawest player on this list, but that comes with immense upside and some of the best open-field skills I’ve seen in a really long time. When Toney was on the field last year, he was one of only five players to have a 29% target per route run, with more than 2.2 yards per route run, joining Cooper Kupp, AJ Brown, Antonio Brown, and Davante Adams. That’s pretty good company. He showed his true WR1 potential in week 5 against the Dallas Cowboys, racking up 189 yards on 10 receptions, tallying the 7th most yards in a game.

He had as many highlights in that game, as a lot of players do in an entire season. Daniel Jones also showed improvements last year and looks like a solid QB option for the Giants. Jones’ improvements, paired with a new coach and system, should lead to a big year for Kadarius Toney and the Giant’s offense. He is the literal definition of a boom or bust player but has the upside to contribute in a massive way.

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