There are just four games scheduled in the MLB for tonight’s main-slate on DraftKings. The strategy seems pretty straightforward, in terms of lineup construction. Chris Sale is the far and away best pitching option, while there are a couple of great mid-tier options.
Hitting stacks will be interesting. Although the Royals will garner the most ownership, there are other teams to look at from a GPP point of view. Let’s take a look at some of the best players to roster this evening on a short slate.
Chris Sale (BOS): $13,000 @ TOR
There isn’t too much to say here. On a small slate, with limited options, Chris Sale is the clear number one option. In terms of “game-theory”, you can try to fade Sale due to the extreme ownership. However, this is a spot where he could throw up 40+ DraftKings points and the likelihood any other pitcher comes close, is slim. With the amount of value available from the hitters, Sale is easy to roster and should not be faded.
Dylan Bundy (BAL): $9,800 vs. TB
The Orioles starter grades out as the second-best pitcher throwing tonight, off to an incredible start in 2018. He is ranked as the best starting pitcher this far and should continue tonight against a weak Rays team. They put up runs last night, but every team does against Alex Cobb. The Rays strikeout at a 23.8% rate which should provide a high K floor for Bundy. A Sale/Bundy combination is great for cash games and will most likely be one of the more popular pitching duos.
Marco Estrada (TOR): $5,000 vs. BOS
I think everyone will either start their lineup with Sale/Bundy, Sale/Archer, Sale/Junis, or a combination of any of those pitchers without Sale. Estrada is the best option in the bottom tier and does deserve some consideration. Although he is a flyball pitcher throwing in a hitters park, Estrada has a nasty changeup which the RedSox have struggled to hit. Both Eduardo Nunez and Rafael Devers looked absolutely lost at the plate against Aaron Sanchez last night when he was mixing his fastball in with off-speed stuff. With the lack of options available, rostering Estrada will not only come in at low-ownership but allow you to roster the higher priced hitters. Which will be a very different lineup build.
Chalk – High owned
1.) Kansas City Royals
Although the Red Sox have a higher implied run total, the Royals hitters are much more affordable to fit into lineups with the high-priced pitchers. The power lefties are locks to have good games, while the speed guys could steal a few bases once they get on. Giolitto has had major command issues, showing a 19.2% BB rate. He isn’t allowing a lot of homeruns, but the combination of hits and walks have led to short outings with a lot of earned runs.
2.) Boston Red Sox
Vegas has set the run total at 4.76 for the Red Sox against Marco Estrada. Last night, there were a lot of hitters who did not look good at the plate. With plenty of opportunities to drive in runs, they failed to break the game open. Outside of Mookie Betts going yard twice, there was not a lot of offense from this team. Since failing to record a hit against A’s starter, Sean Manaea, Boston has scored just eight runs in three games. They have not been the same hitting team as the beginning of the season, when they were averaging over eight runs a game. What also has me concerned about stacking the Sox, is their BvP against Estrada. The current team has a .211 AVG, .299 OBP, .613 OPS and just four homeruns in 213 plate appearances. This is not to say they cannot go off, but on a four game slate, we need to find any reason to fade chalk.
With the limited amount of teams to choose from, there wont be any “low-owned” teams. The Blue Jays will even carry some ownership. I feel like Chicago will go overlooked though. If people have the salary to afford high-priced hitters, they will look to the Red Sox. Chase Anderson is a pitcher who we don’t love to specifically target, however there is reason to attack him. His strikeout rate has dropped 5%, while his HR/9 has increased dramatically to 1.95. Righties have a .383 wOBA against him and are very intriguing. The wind is blowing out to left-field at Wrigley, which gives the right-handed hitters even more reason to look at.
Mookie Betts $5,400 @ TOR
J.D. Martinez $4,800 @ TOR
Kyle Schwarber $4,700 vs. MIL
Andrew Benintendi $4,200 @ TOR
Ian Happ $3,900 vs. MIL
Albert Almora Jr. $3,700 vs. MIL
Jorge Soler $3,400 vs. CWS
Jon Jay $3,200 vs. CWS