As usual, there is a full set of games scheduled in the MLB tonight. With 28 teams in action, there are plenty of avenues to take. A wide variety of pitchers will take the mound. Gerrit Cole is far and away the best starting pitcher. However, as we saw last night with Justin Verlander, these Mariners won’t go down easy.
For hitting stacks, there are plenty. The usual suspects should garner the most ownership tonight, for good reason. Coors Field is always in play, regardless of how good the starters pitch, apparently. There are other very sneaky teams to load up on though.
With plenty of cash to be won in GPP’s tonight, let’s take a deeper look at the slate.
Nathan Eovaldi (BOS): $9,700 @ BAL
As I am writing this, I am unsure how ownership will shake out for starting pitchers. Paying all the way up has not proven to be the best strategy recently, but Cole is all alone at the top. That being said, Nathan Eovaldi is my favorite pitcher to look at in the top tier (top-mid tier I guess) and his inflated price should keep interest down. Now on the best team in baseball, the wins should start racking up. Flying under the radar, Eovaldi owns a 22.6% K rate, 3.3% BB rate, 3.59 SIERA and sub .300 wOBA to both sides of the plate. The Orioles are not a good team and their lineup added more strikeouts after the trade deadline. The Red Sox offense should easily give their starter the win, as 25+ DraftKings points should be expected.
Shane Bieber (CLE): $8,300 @ CWS
It was reported that the Cleveland Indians were the team in on trying to land Bryce Harper at the trade deadline. Apparently, the “deal-breaker” was Shane Bieber. The Indians organization believes in this kid and in his few MLB appearances, he has not disappointed. He has shown 30+ point upside this season and will enter his easiest matchup thus far. Bieber has an above average strikeout rate and a respectable .357 SIERA. Lefties do hit him hard to a tune of a .397 wOBA. However, this White Sox team owns the second highest strikeout rate on the season at 25.7%. If Bieber can navigate through the power-hitting lefties, the Indians starter should go on to have a ceiling game.
Jon Gray (COL): $7,700 vs. LAD
At his price, Jon Gray is an interesting GPP leverage option against the Dodgers. Is there a risk? 100%. The ballpark is awful and the matchup is not good. We do know what the upside is though. Gray has scored 37, 26.9, and 24 DraftKings points in his last three home games. For those who don’t know, Jon Gray has been one of the unluckiest starting pitchers in the MLB this season. He owns a .473 ERA, yet a .301 xFIP, .331 SIERA, and a .335 BABIP. That is the MLB’s second-highest BABIP of 2018. Positive regression is due for Gray and we are starting to see it in his game logs. I feel that most will be scared off of Gray due to the nature of the situation. For perspective, Gray needs 23.1 DK points to hit 3X. Which he has done in each of his last four starts.
New York Yankees
Vegas has tagged the Yankees with the highest implied run total this evening at 5.31. Even though Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are out, home runs have not been hard to come by. Scoring seven runs on five long-balls last night, the Yankees have plenty of pop up and down the lineup and with value. Mike Minor will enter Yankee Stadium with a .331 wOBA to right-handed hitters with a 1.46 HR/9. The Rangers have one of the weaker bullpens in the league, giving New York more opportunities to score runs after Minor is chased.
Boston Red Sox
Against Dylan Bundy, I think the Red Sox will go slightly overlooked. Bundy has a high strikeout rate at 25.2%. But Boston does not strikeout very often. They are a patient team who are great at taking a lot of pitches. The second and third time through the order, pitchers tend to struggle a lot. Although he gets a lot of strikeouts, Bundy also owns a 2 HR/9 and .371 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland stand out as elite options this evening.
Hopefully, Mike Trout is back in the lineup. The matchup for the Angels is fantastic against Brett Anderson tonight and specifically to righties. Anderson has been awful in 2018 with a 4.83 SIERA to go along with a .373 wOBA to RHH and .366 wOBA to LHH. He has struggled to get anyone out, owning just an 11.4% strikeout rate. As a late-night hammer, the Angels will come in at low ownership with plenty of upside.
Anthony DeSclafani will toe the rubber for the Reds at home against the D-backs. What stands out the most is the split stats against lefties. The Reds starter has faced 127 left-handed hitters in 2018 and has given up 11 homers. Compared to just four homers against 125 righties. He has given up more walks, hits, and has fewer strikeouts to LHH. Arizona could potentially be rolling out six lefties tonight including some powerful bats. The addition of Eduardo Escobar is a massive upgrade in the infield and should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs for a massive evening.
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