Last night was rough. Dylan Bundy and Tyler Anderson got destroyed in spots where they should have had better outcomes. Proving once again the MLB is a very tough sport to predict. It is a tough DFS sport and even harder to win GPP’s.
Tonight is a new night though. This Thursday evening we have a nice, seven-game slate. It is one of the more interesting sets of games, where there is no ace to pay up for or offense. With few pitchers to consider, as well as stacks, playing obvious plays might work out the best.
Julio Teheran (ATL): $8,200 vs. COL
It is widely known that the Rockies are simply not as good on the road as they are at home. Their ISO, wOBA, AVG, SLG, OPS, and nearly every hitting stat are far better at home. Obviously, they take advantage of hitting in Coors Field. But they are a below average offense, compared to the rest of the MLB, on the road. In addition, the Rockies strikeout 3% more on the road. After being one of the best home run hitting ballparks in 2017, SunTrust has proven to be more of a pitchers park in 2018. I personally do not know the reason for this. I do know that SunTrust is averaging just 0.716 home runs per game, which ranks 28th in the MLB. Julio Teheran is by no means an ace and certainly has risk attached to his name. He has a ceiling of close to 30 DraftKings points and a floor of -4. Due to the nature of this slate, he may garner more ownership than we want, but has massive strikeout upside in a great matchup.
Sam Gaviglio (TOR): $6,800 @ KC
After his good start against the Phillies, I think Jacob Nix will come in as the highest owned pitcher tonight. Which is crazy. We will see as we get closer to lock.
That being said, Sam Gaviglio is a great pivot at $1,000 less. It is not the first time I have touted the Jays starter and it won’t be the last. The pitch arsenal will not blow anyone away. As in he does not average any pitch over 88.4 MPH. But I do believe in the skill set. He throws five different pitches and induces a lot of ground balls. We know the Royals are usually nothing to fear offensively and the ballpark is great for pitchers. If Gaviglio can navigate through the two hottest hitters, Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield, he should cruise to another 15+ fantasy point outing.
Los Angeles Angels
Specifically the outfield, the Angels are in a great spot tonight to score some runs. Again, they won’t be contrarian. There are few offenses to like though. Justin Upton is one of the streakiest power-hitters in the MLB who has hit five home runs in his last eight games. Shohei Ohtani should be back in the lineup as the Angels return to the American League and gain the DH. Always a sneaky, left-handed power hitter in GPP’s. Last, Kole Calhoun. He has won a lot of people a lot of money this year. Always going overlooked, Calhoun has benefited greatly from hitting at the top of the order. With Upton and Ohtani hitting behind him, Calhoun sees a lot more first-pitch strikes and less breaking balls. It does not take a lot of power to drive the ball out of Globe Life Park and with rookie Ariel Jurado on the mound, the Angels will have no issue scoring runs.
In the same matchup, the Rangers will look to their offense against Taylor Cole. The Angels 28-year-old has been good in his MLB appearances but won’t last long. He has yet to throw more than 48 pitches in the show and this will likely be a bullpen game for the Halos. As we know, the Rangers have some heavy hitters who can take any pitcher deep. Joey Gallo pops off as one of the best GPP options of the night. If you can stomach the high strikeout rate, Gallo is always a threat to double-dong. In 2018, the Rangers 1B/OF has recorded 79 hits. Of those 79 hits, 31 have gone for home runs. Nearly 40% of his hits go over the wall. There is always a big 0 potential with this guy, but if you have the stones, Gallo certainly has GPP winning upside.
Toronto Blue Jays
At this point, you probably think that I am a massive Blue Jays fan. Well, I am. But that has no correlation as to why I am recommending their starting pitcher and hitters. The Royals will look to Glenn Sparkman this evening. His MLB career is limited, only pitching 16 innings thus far, but the numbers are not great. What is most concerning is the BB/9 at 3.94. Good for a stack! Either way, the bullpen for Kansas City is what we really want to attack. Sparkman has only thrown 68 pitches once and will give way to the pen early. The Royals relievers own a league-worst 4.49 SIERA, 5.35 ERA, and 17.8% K rate. Sure Kauffman Stadium is not great for hitters. But the bullpen has been so bad, the Jays should continue to produce offense after scoring 12 runs in their last two games.
Hosting the Detroit Tigers, the Twins come in as my third favorite GPP stack. Francisco Liriano will get the nod for the Tigers tonight, who has struggled this season. Owning just a 7.15 K/9, 5.24 SIERA, and .360 wOBA to righties, the Twins are in a great spot. Miguel Sano is my favorite “one-off” on the Twins as he seems to have found his groove after being sent down to Triple-A. He has immense power as one of the highest average exit velocity hitters in the MLB. After chasing Liriano, Minnesota will see a brutal Tigers pen who is ranked as a bottom 10 bullpen in the MLB.