We have a great 14-game slate scheduled tonight in the MLB on DraftKings. There are a ton of great pitching options in different pricing tiers. Mad Max is priced all the way up at $14,000 which is tough to swallow with so many other arms on the mound. However, he does have a great matchup and there are value bats on the board. Let’s dive into this big slate and take a look at some of the best DraftKings GPP plays on the night.
Max Scherzer (WAS): $14,000
Right now, Max Scherzer is the best pitcher in baseball. Given any sort of context, when Max is on his game, there are few people on earth who can hit him. Tonight, he will face the Miami Marlins who have an undesirable lineup in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark. Miami will likely roll out six, right-handed hitters. Max Scherzer is simply dominating righties, owning a ridiculous 52.2% strikeout rate. Honestly, we could dive into every pitching stat and discuss how amazing Max has been this year. With so many other top-tier pitching options, Max will go less owned than he should. The high price tag will also scare people off which makes him even more intriguing. The common trend this year in DFS is to pay down for pitching and up for hitters. To win a GPP, you need to zig when others zag. We could see a vintage Max Scherzer ceiling game where he puts up 40+ DK points at lower ownership.
Sean Manaea (OAK): $8,600 vs. ARI
Manaea will get the best matchup of the night and is a very viable SP 2 on DraftKings. The Arizona Diamondbacks lead the MLB with a 32.2% strikeout rate in the last seven days. With the injury to A.J. Pollock, this watered down group of hitters has found themselves free-falling in the standings. While Manaea’s K% is slightly down from last year, his BB% and SIERA has reduced significantly. He is a neutral splits pitcher with no weakness or advantage to specific handedness and will look to shut down a very poor D-backs team.
Sam Gaviglio (TOR): $5,000 @ PHI
As a very high-risk pitching option, the Jays starter is a salary relief pitcher who has upside in a sneaky good matchup. Yes, the Phillies have been great this season, but are struggling dramatically as of late. They are a young team who have shown a massive offensive decline in their last seven days. They own just a 78 wRC+, .216 avg while striking out at a 26.4% clip. Gaviglio had a great start against the A’s in his last outing and although he did not get the win, he did record six strikeouts in just five innings. Assuming he will get a longer leash to pitch deeper into this game, Gaviglio can produce a 4X return.
It seems like forever ago since we last talked about the Rockies in Coors. Well, they are back home and will face Sal Romano. The Reds starter owns a high 5.24 SIERA and has struggled to get strikeouts all season. He has just a 15.1% K rate and as we know, Coors is the hardest park to pitch in. The Rockies bats are very expensive and if we lock Max Scherzer in, they are almost impossible to get to. They will carry a hefty ownership cost, so fading is certainly viable. However, this is a terrifying fade due to the terrible pitching on the Reds, along with the 83-degree weather. It might be a multi-entry night, to be honest…
Boston Red Sox
The second highest implied run total goes to the Red Sox, at home, with the wind blowing out to right-center at 14mph. They will see a homerun-prone, Julio Teheran. On the season, he owns a 1.50 HR/9 allowing five to right-handed hitters through 30 innings. Lefties have historically hit the Braves starter hard, making Mitch Moreland an elite play. The rest of the Boston lineup is essentially made up of good righties who will make this a long night for Teheran. Again, they are priced up due to their recent success. With so many great high-priced pitching options and Coors field, the Sox will go lower owned than they should.
My sneaky, low-owned, cheap stack are the A’s. They will see Diamondbacks starter, Patrick Corbin. Although he started the season off on fire, Corbin has seen a decrease in velocity in his last three starts. In his last outing, he struggled with command and generated just 10 swinging strikes. Oakland will likely stack the top half of their lineup with five, power-hitting righties, which give him more trouble than left-handed hitters. The bats are affordable enough to fit in one high-priced pitcher along with some other decent hitters.
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