Happy Friday! Welcome, to another fantastic MLB main-slate on DraftKings. There are 14 games to break down and look at this evening. With no true ace to pay up for, pitching becomes interesting, while Coors Field is once again highlighting the hitters.
The mid-tier of starting pitchers are quite strong. Tonight is shaking up to be a much more balanced lineup. Still, getting exposure to the Rockies and Marlins will be important, as we witnessed in the last series played.
Let’s dive into this slate and take a look at some of the best GPP options for tonight’s DraftKings slate.
Sean Newcomb (ATL): $10,500 vs. BAL
The 25-year-old is having a fantastic season with the Atlanta Braves which should continue tonight. Newcomb will draw a matchup with the disappointing Baltimore Orioles who have been strikeout prone all season long. Once again, the O’s will roll out a very right-handed heavy lineup, where Newcomb thrives. Against righties, Newcomb owns a 24.5% strikeout rate, 79.8% LOB, with a 2.76 FIP. Continuing their National League road trip, the Baltimore Orioles will lose their DH, providing another easy out in the lineup for the Braves starter. The price is pretty high, but Sean Newcomb is the safest pitcher on the board tonight, with upside.
Alex Wood (LAD): $9,100 @ NYM
Outside of a Coors Field run explosion, the New York Mets have been dreadful. They are a team we can pick on, once again, now that they are back home in the pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Mets are also one of the worst hitting teams against left-handed pitching. They own the second highest strikeout rate to lefties (25.6%), with the lowest batting average (.215 AVG). Alex Wood has always had a short leash when it comes to going deep into games, but the strikeout upside is massive in this matchup.
Marco Estrada (TOR): $7,200 @ LAA
The change-up specialist will take on a red-hot Angels team in the late-night hammer this evening. At $7,200, Estrada should go virtually unowned. Most see the Jays starter as a home run prone, flyball pitcher. And they wouldn’t be wrong. He has a 1.63 HR/9 with a 53.5% FB rate. However, Estrada will get the positive park shift from the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre to a much more spacious, Angel Stadium. Marco is coming off three impressive performances against the Nationals, Orioles, and Yankees. Last night, Aaron Sanchez had to leave the game after just one inning. John Gibbons had to turn to his bullpen much earlier than he would have liked to for the start of this series. He will now lean on Estrada to go deep into this game to save important arms for the remaining games. This savvy veteran is risky to roster each time he toes the rubber, but he has the ability to get the better of this Angels team.
Tonight, the Rockies have been slapped with an incredible 6.88 implied run total from Vegas. Honestly, I think they can hit the over. The Marlins travel to the Mile High City and look to Wei-Yin Chen. If you paid attention to the last series in Coors Field, you would have noticed that the Mets turned to a lot of left-handed starting pitchers. This did not work out for the Mets. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story absolutely destroy lefties. Arenado owns a .583 wOBA, 1.439 OPS, and 262 wRC+ against southpaws, at home. Trevor Story has a .656 wOBA, 1.675 OPS, with a 311 wRC+. These are video game numbers. Both are almost a lock to take any left-handed pitcher deep, let alone Wei-Yin Chen, who sucks against righties.
Supporting Sean Newcomb tonight will be the division-leading Braves hitters. Alex Cobb will take the mound for Baltimore, who has been one of the worst pitchers all season long. Cobb tries to pitch to contact for groundballs, which seemed to have worked in 2017. This season, however, hitters are seeing his pitches a lot better and are hitting him hard. The Braves have some big hitters in their lineup and will make this a long, night for the O’s starter. Freddie Freeman is my favorite “pay-up” player of the night (outside of Coors). Cobb has a .438 wOBA to lefties. SunTrust Park is very short in right field allowing lefties to pull the ball up and over the fence with ease. Ozzie Albies and Nick Markakis are also very much in play.
The left-handed Danny Duffy will have his hands full this evening as he takes on the defending champs, Houston Astros. The Astros currently have a 50-26 record on the season. What is crazier is that it feels like their offense is just starting to come together. We know how dominant the pitching has been. Now the bats are starting to catch fire. Jose Altuve is coming off a two home run night, in what turned out to be a four home run effort from the ‘stros. Often forgotten about, due to the Yankees and Red Sox hype, the Astros are not a team to be taken lightly. They have an offense built as good as any other MLB team and can produce runs any given night.
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