Hope everyone had a fantastic All-star break! One of the better games of recent memory, along with home run derby. Tonight, we jump right back into things with a fun, 14-game slate. DraftKings has posted some massive GPP tournaments with a lot of cash to be won.
Even though there are a lot of teams playing tonight, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of options. The path seems quite clear as to where the chalk will lay. On slates this big, we usually do not need to worry about ownership percentage too much, but tonight is different.
Cleveland is the clear chalk along with Trevor Bauer. Fitting in an entire stack along with Bauer is impossible, but getting exposure will be very popular.
Let’s break this slate down and look to take home some cash after a lengthy break.
Trevor Bauer (CLE): $13,600 @ TEX
There are few nights playing the most popular pitcher pays off in a GPP. However, tonight might be one of those nights. Bauer is one of the top pitchers in the MLB this season. Tonight he will face a strikeout-prone, Rangers team. Texas owns a 24.8% K rate which ranks fourth highest in the MLB. Conversely, Bauer has the sixth highest K% at 31.4. The price may keep ownership palatable, along with the ample mid-tier options. Trevor Bauer should easily score the most raw points tonight in a great matchup.
Nathan Eovaldi (TB): $8,200 vs. MIA
After getting blown up against Minnesota in his last outing, people will likely shy away from rostering the highly volatile starting pitcher. There are also a lot of pivots in this price range which should leave the Rays starter at very low-owned. Eovaldi has shown incredible fantasy ceiling performances this season, scoring 37.2 DraftKings points a couple of weeks ago. The HR/9 rate is slightly concerning, however, Tropicana is a ballpark which is very pitcher friendly. There are a few lefties in this lineup who could take Eovaldi deep, but at his price, there is room for a couple of earned runs which won’t sink a lineup.
Domingo German (NYY): $8,100 vs. NYM
I personally own German in all of my season-long leagues and have rostered the youngster every possible start in DFS. Even though he has burned me more times than I would like, I will go back to the well and believe in the skill set.
To start off, German has been extremely unlucky in a lot of his outings. His 5.49 ERA is scary but inflated. German owns a 3.82 xFIP and 3.65 SIERA. Watching most of his outings, I have witnessed a lot of infield mistakes which have led to hitters getting on-base and being driven in.
The most encouraging stat on Domingo German is his Swinging Strike Rate. This season, he is sitting at a ridiculous 14.9%. For perspective, Jake deGrom owns a 15.4% rate and is ranked third in the MLB (after Max Scherzer and Chris Sale).
To top it all off, German will face the New York Mets. The Mets have been a team to target all season long and tonight will be no different. Similar to Eovaldi, lefties could do some damage, but I give the edge to the Yankees starter.
Sam Gaviglio (TOR): $6,900 vs. BAL
I so did not want to recommend Gaviglio or feel the need to get exposure. Then the Orioles had to go and trade away the only good hitter in their lineup. If Machado was in this lineup, there would be no reason to look at him. However, now that this lineup is completely laughable, we have to look at every pitcher facing this team.
Gaviglio is not a bad pitcher. He has had a couple bad outings, but for the most part, against really good teams. He has faced the Red Sox four times now, and the Yankees twice. Gaviglio does not throw hard, at all. But he does throw five different pitches, with a heavy dose of sinkers. This leads to a 50% ground-ball rate which limits a lot of potential damage. At a fair price, load him up with confidence to afford those Indian hitters.
Not a secret, at all. The Indians will be highly owned. However, getting exposure will be very important. They have the highest implied team run total, which has been set at 5.90. They are traveling to a very hitter-friendly ballpark against flyball pitcher, Martin Perez. On the season, the southpaw has a 5.48 SIERA, 2.15 HR/9, and .457 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Edwin Encarnacion is among the best hitters on the night and should be surrounded with the rest of the team.
The Pirates get a massive positive park-shift as they travel to Cincinnati to face Tyler Mahle. Pit is not usually a fun team to stack, but the left-handed hitters are very intriguing in this matchup. Mahle has given up 13 homers and 35 base on balls to lefties this season. To just 229 batters faced.
A contrarian stack this evening will be the Colorado Rockies. A lot of people have respect for Robbie Ray (as do I), but he is a lefty. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are worth a look as fantastic pivots off the Indians. The thing about Robbie Ray is that he has a very high strikeout and walk rate. He rarely goes deep into games because he throws so many pitches to each hitter. Although we prefer to have the lefty mashers take their looks at Ray, the D-backs do not have an amazing bullpen. Taking a shot with a low-owned Rockies stack is very tempting.
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