After a great weekend of baseball, we have just eight games scheduled for tonight’s main slate in the MLB. There are a couple of high-priced stud pitchers to look at, along with some obvious hitting stacks. Pivoting to a lower owned pitcher might be the best option tonight in GPP’s, to differentiate lineup construction. Let’s take a look at some of the best tournament options for tonight’s MLB main-slate.
Sean Manaea (OAK): $9,600 @ BOS
Both Patrick Corbin and Carlos Carrasco are in better spots this evening and seemingly much safer options. However, there are reasons to fade the top two pitchers going tonight.
As reports on DraftKings and Fangraphs have shared, Corbin showed a dip in his fastball velocity during the final inning of his last outing. His results have still been elite, but there is a reason for concern as his command isn’t quite where it was at the start of the season.
Carrasco is an elite pitcher and his Indians should provide more than enough runs to give him the win tonight. The issue is that the Tigers do not strikeout very often. Although there is not a lot of imposing hitters in the Detroit lineup, the Indians ace needs a lot of K’s to pay off the $12,200 price tag. Along with the high ownership, he is an easy fade for me.
Meanwhile, Sean Manaea will take on the Boston Red Sox which is a very sneaky good matchup. Against left-handed pitchers, Boston has a 24.1% K rate, with just a 6.5% BB rate and hitting a .236 AVG. On April 21st, Manaea pitched a no-hitter against the Red Sox while striking out 10 in his effort. While we are not expecting the same result, he could be in-line for another great outing against a team who is struggling to hit lefties. In Boston, this is a very risky option. But the upside is massive.
Joey Lucchesi (SD): $8,100 vs. COL
The price tag on the Padres rookie is insane. There is no reason he should be in the $8K range due to the short leash and seemingly limited upside. What intrigues me the most about the starting pitcher is the matchup. Aside from Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, the Rockies are not a very good hitting team on the road. They are striking out at a rate over 27% against left-handed pitchers, which bodes well for the youngster. He struck out eight Rockies through just six innings pitched back in early April and a similar outcome is certainly within expectations. What makes Lucchesi get the swing and misses, is his funky delivery and the ability to hide his pitches so well. The price is tough to swallow, so I may not end up here, but he is on the radar and a 30 DK point performance is reachable.
Junior Guerra (MIL): $6,000 @ ARI
As a value option, the Brewers starting pitcher is very appealing. More so because of the matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks and the strikeout upside. Coming off a game where he struck out nine Cleveland Indians, Guerra has been quite consistent (outside of one start against Pittsburgh). The D-Backs own a 25.4% strikeout rate against righties and have recently activated the very strikeout prone, Steven Souza Jr. At the very low price, Guerra should pay off value in a great matchup.
With the highest implied run total, the Indians will come in as the highest owned hitters on the night. It is tough to fade this group due to the lack of other options along with weather risks. Good starting pitchers will also remove other teams in play this evening which will funnel all of the interest. Lock in the Indians hitters with confidence tonight.
Chris Stratton will take the mound tonight against the Reds and though started the season strong, has recently struggled. He is not a very talented pitcher and his command has been an issue. In his last three starts, Stratton has given up four homeruns, 10 walks, and 17 hits through just 11 innings. The ballpark is pitcher friendly, but that shouldn’t scare us off too much given the lack of other hitting options.
Hopefully, the weather cooperates with us tonight and this game gets in. Ranked in the top 10 in nearly every hitting statistic, look for Seattle to get to Jake Odorizzi early in this one. The Twins starter is having a solid season but does give up a lot of homeruns. Giving up nine to start the year, Odorizzi has allowed at least one long ball, in all but two, of his first eight starts.
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