Like most 14-game slates, there are a lot of pitchers and stacks to break down. With Coors Field seemingly the best and most obvious spot, we will have to look elsewhere for complimentary mini-stacks and unique pitchers. Although fading Coors is a good GPP strategy, there are few teams to pivot to tonight. There is just one other team with an implied run total over 5. Seven of the 28 teams in play are projected to score less than four runs tonight. This makes things a little trickier when both Colorado and San Fran are slam-dunk plays. Let’s dive into the slate to see if we can find alternatives.
Rick Porcello (TB): $10,100
This is a game theory pivot. Porcello is a good pitcher in a great matchup who will go overlooked after getting shelled in Tampa Bay as a chalk SP 1 during his last start.
I am assuming two starting pitchers in the top tier will garner a lot more ownership. Charlie Morton, who is 7-0 and dropped 10 strikeouts against this Yankees team for 36.9 DraftKings points, less than a month ago. Along with Blake Snell, who has put together two strong outings in a row against the Angels and Red Sox.
First, I will never start a pitcher in Yankee Stadium, against the Yankees. With 27 other pitchers to look at, this is an easy fade.
Next, Blake Snell. He is young, talented, and has looked downright nasty. Now, he will face the Oakland A’s in a great ballpark. It is ok to play Chris Sale chalk or Max Scherzer chalk because their room for failure is very limited. They will put up great games nearly every night out. Blake Snell has scored less than less than 20 DraftKings points in five outings while scoring less than five DK points twice. I have watched him pitch a lot last year and now this year. His issue is the command. That is no secret. When he is on and limiting his walks, he can dominate. But at over $10K and what somewhere near 20% ownership on a 14 game slate? I will hope for the bad Blake Snell and even recommend an A’s stack for leverage.
Luis Castillo (CIN): $8,000 @ ARI
Although the Diamondbacks scored 12 runs last night, it was against Homer Bailey. Luis Castillo is a very talented starting pitcher who has looked much more refined after a shaky start to 2018. In April, the youngster posted a terrifying 7.85 ERA, but has since reduced it to a 5.34 on the season. With a 3.95 xFIP, positive regression is on the horizon and we could see a great game tonight against a pretty bad Arizona team. It was the bottom half of this lineup that contributed to the majority of the damage yesterday. Paul Goldschmidt still does not look great at the plate, while Jake Lamb is one of the least intimidating cleanup hitters in the game. The team is still striking out at an alarming rate and I think Castillo can expose them.
Felix Hernandez (SEA): $6,900 vs. TEX
If this game was being played in Texas, there is no chance he comes recommended. At home, nearly all pitching statistics are improved. It is not a huge surprise since Safeco Field is one of the better pitcher parks in the MLB. Felix Hernandez is also a legend in Seattle. He plays off the fans and has the ability to elevate his game in specific situations. There have been solid outings from King Felix this year, and we could see another ceiling strikeout game from the veteran. The Rangers are striking out at a 25.9% clip and are still dealing with injuries to key hitters. There are few pitching options worth looking at lower than $6,900. At this price, Felix is one of the better salary saving hurlers tonight.
Colorado and San Francisco
Not a lot to say here. A game total set at 11.5. The Rockies will come in at higher ownership, but both teams are in play and there are value bats available on either team.
Boston Red Sox
With the steep price tag on the hitters, people will likely pivot to the Coors bats. If you have the balls to fade Rockies and Giants hitters, look at the Red Sox. They will see a flyball pitcher in a great hitting environment. If you are a BvP person, check out the stats. There is a lot of data between these two.
Hot streaks are real and the Brewers are white hot at the moment. In their last three games, they have scored 17, 8, and 8 runs. Miller Park is a fantastic hitting ballpark and Michael Wacha is due for some negative regression. With an impressive 2.88 ERA, Wacha also owns a puzzling 4.23 SIERA. He has changed his pitch usage to include more cutters and fewer four-seamers. I will be putting my money on the Brewers in this division rival game with an improved lineup looking to keep the streak going.
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