This Tuesday night brings us another great 14 game main-slate on DraftKings. At a glance, there are a lot of great starting pitchers available in fantastic spots. Paying way up for the top tier aces will not be necessary, but will differentiate lineups if you chose to take that path.
Luis Severino has earned enough respect to be priced higher than Corey Kluber tonight at $13,100. After rookie Johnathan Loaisiga pitched a gem against this Phillies team last night, look for Severino to dominate Philadelphia.
After a somewhat disappointing last night, the Braves are very much in play against Matt Harvey. There are four teams with an implied run total over five which will provide plenty of stack options other than Atlanta.
With so many paths to take tonight, ownership should not be too much of a concern. Let’s dive into this slate and take a look at some of the best GPP options this evening.
I am personally living in the mid-tier tonight. However, below are my favorite pitchers in different price ranges.
James Paxton (SEA): $12,500 @ BAL
There are a lot of great pitchers to pay up for tonight. One of the top starters going is James Paxton. A lot of DFS players do “lazy” research and just look at the lefty/righty matchup. Baltimore usually throws out a very right-handed heavy lineup which will look attractive against the southpaw. However, Paxton has massive reverse split stats and actually dominates righties and struggles more with left-handed hitters. The ace owns a .249 wOBA, .184 AVG, and 31.4% K rate to righties. Manny Machado is the only hitter in this lineup who possesses any real threat for damage. If Baltimore decides to throw any lefties in the order, they only have Colby Rasmus and Chris Davis to look at. Paxton will go overlooked at the top tier, but in this matchup, he is worth a shot.
Freddy Peralta (MIL): $7,900 vs. KC
Impossible to ignore, the Brewers talented young starter will take the mound against the Royals. Freddy Peralta has been electric in his three starts for Milwaukee. Although a very small sample size, he owns a 41% strikeout rate with a 14.3% swinging strike rate. He has limited the hard contact rate to just 28% and owns a 2.85 SIERA. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals are in a major slump as the worst run producing team in the MLB during the last two weeks. The Royals own a measly 41 wRC+ which is last in the league by 29 points. They are striking out at a 23.9% rate and batting just a .179 average. At less than $8,000 Freddy Peralta should easily exceed his value. Although he will likely come in as one of the highest owned players, he grades out as a top point per dollar pitcher on the slate.
Frankie Montas (OAK): $7,600 @ DET
Detroit has the third lowest wOBA, second lowest ISO, and third highest K% over the past week. Montas has pitched five games this season and four have gone for over 20 DraftKings points. Outside of the blowup game against Houston, Montas has been great. There is regression coming to Montas, as his numbers indicate, but it shouldn’t happen against this weak opponent.
Lance Lynn (MIN): $7,300 @ CWS
The Minnesota starter is at his highest price tag all season. Lynn is in play due to the matchup against the Chicago White Sox. There are so many strikeouts in this lineup and Lynn has been a very serviceable pitcher. The Twins starter has increased is K% and GB% being a difficult pitcher to generate hard contact and flyballs off of. He has also reduced his HR/9 rate to just 0.86 on the season. It is no secret that the White Sox have struggled all season long and specifically to righties. They continue to strikeout at a very high rate and lack any run production. Lynn should go deep into this game with strikeout upside.
The ballpark is not ideal. However, the D-backs are on fire and will get a great matchup against a weak pitcher. Elieser Hernandez struggles to left-handed hitters owning a .428 wOBA. He is 0-4 as a starter for the Marlins, logging a 5.12 ERA. He has already faced this Diamondbacks team, where he gave up five earned runs through just three innings of work. Load up on the Arizona lefties with Paul Goldschmidt.
Boston Red Sox
Boston has the highest implied run total of the evening, set at 5.53. They will face Angels starter, John Lamb. Lamb has made just two MLB appearances this season, allowing five runs, nine hits, and three home runs, through eight innings. These two games were against the Blue Jays and the Athletics. Now, he will have to try and quiet a healthy Red Sox team. In Fenway. It is pretty hard to pay up for the stud hitters in this lineup (Mookie Betts is $6,100 and J.D. Martinez at $5,700), but they are in a fantastic spot. Lamb does not throw hard (fastball is barely reaching 90mph, while his curve is hovering at 67mph). The experienced hitters in this potent lineup will eat this kid alive and I fully expect multiple home runs.
One of the very best pitchers to target in DFS will take the mound this evening in Atlanta. Matt Harvey. The former “Dark Knight” (I don’t think we can call him that anymore) will see a very left-handed heavy lineup with the likes of Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and Nick Markakis as the 1-4 part of the lineup. Harvey struggles a lot more to lefties, owning a .386 wOBA this season. The park is a great hitting environment. Keep a close eye on the weather as there are pop-up thunderstorms taking place in the area all week.
Although Tyson Ross is a respectable pitcher, the Rangers are still a great stack tonight. The weather is extremely hot in Texas, making this ideal hitting conditions. Lefties give Ross more trouble and the Rangers lineup is full of them. After Ross leaves the game, the Padres will turn to their disappointing bullpen. Over the last seven days, the Padres relievers are 0-4 with a 7.31 ERA.
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