We have a full 15-game slate tonight with a lot of ways to go. Max Scherzer is the top stud but is priced at $14,000. That is a tough price to fit into a roster with all of the great expensive hitters available. There are options in the mid-tier and then it gets pretty ugly. Below are breakdowns of pitchers in each tier. There are some hitting stacks that seem unfadeable tonight.
It will be interesting to see how roster construction sorts itself out. There is no need to worry about ownership due to the many different great paths to take.
Jacob deGrom (NYM): $9,800 vs. ARI
The top point per dollar pitcher on this slate, for me, is the Mets ace. This is the first time he has been priced below $10,000 this season. Off to an incredible start, deGrom will face an overrated Diamondbacks team. Now without their hottest hitter, A.J. Pollock, Arizona seems like one of the better matchups for any pitcher. The D-backs own the second highest strikeout percentage in the last 14 days at 27.5%. In a negative park shift, there is no reason to think this watered down team will give deGrom any issues. There is a case to be made that Max Scherzer could easily score the most raw points from the pitcher position, but the salary savings from deGrom will allow you to afford the big bats.
Jake Arrieta (PHI): $7,700 @ STL
The matchup in St. Louis is not ideal, but Jake Arrieta is a solid option at just $7,700. He has put together some good performances this season and if he has his command, there are few hitters who can make contact. The strikeout rate has reduced dramatically from last year but so has the hard contact rate. Arrieta has redefined his pitching style and has incorporated his changeup much more. Last night, the Cardinals ran out seven right-handed hitters and struggled to manage much offense. A similar lineup will likely be rolled out which bodes well for the Phillies veteran. Arietta is the clear mid-tier pitcher starting tonight.
Ross Stripling (LAD): $4,200 @ WAS
It is hard to recommend the Dodgers starter, but with perspective, he makes sense. At near minimum price, Stripling only needs around 12-15 fantasy points to exceed value. In his last two starts, Stripling scored 18.4 and 15.4 DraftKings points. This is a cheap pivot option when looking at rostering a top tier pitcher along with a high priced group of hitters. The ownership will be near 1% and the Nationals have some paths to failure. This is an extremely risky decision, however, a lot of other starters going tonight have risk attached as well.
Boston Red Sox
Shocking. Right? The Red Sox, once again, have the highest implied run total at 5.61. They will take on the struggling, Alex Cobb. The O’s starter is 0-5 with a 7.06 ERA and has allowed six homeruns through 29 innings of work. Hopefully, J.D. Martinez will be healthy enough to suit up for this one as he is almost a lock to go yard each night out. Mookie Betts is $5,800 but worth every penny. Not only is he among the homerun leaders, but is also contributing in the stolen base category with 11 on the year. These two are a lock every slate until Boston slows down. If that ever happens.
The PPD last night killed a lot of lineups throughout the industry. Pop up thunderstorms have occurred in the area all week and two of the three nights this week, SunTrust did not see a drop of rain. Tonight is the same story. Maybe we see a PPD, maybe we see the Braves put up 10 runs against a terrible Dan Straily. Giving up a 2.77 HR/9 through three games, Straily also gave up two bombs in AA to start 2018. SunTrust Park is a hitters dream, especially for lefties. The Marlins starter owns a .478 wOBA to left-handed hitters and the Braves have some dangerous power-hitting lefties and switch hitters. As long as this game stays dry, the Braves should go off.
New York Yankees
In Kansas City, the Yankees will face Jakob Junis. Although he is having a respectable year, his issue has been the long ball. Giving up five homeruns against the White Sox a couple of weeks ago did not help his cause but stats do not lie and he has allowed 11 homers in eight games. Guess which team is leading the MLB in HR/PA? The New York Yankees. Kauffman Stadium is a pitchers ballpark. However, the power this team possesses makes any ballpark a hitting park. Even though we do not need to consider ownership too much tonight, New York will go overlooked due to the negative park shift and high price tag.
Texas Rangers / Chicago White SoxThis is a potential game stack opportunity. Joey Gallo let everyone down last night, but he is in another great spot tonight. Both teams are. Matt Moore and Carson Fulmer have a combined 14.05 ERA and both are backed up by terrible bullpens. The weather is a bit of a concern which may get me off this game, but if there is news that this game will play, load up with confidence.