NBA DFS Draftkings 10/31/2018
We will be breaking down the 7 game Wednesday slate for you guys tonight. Had some pretty successful picks last Wednesday targeting high total games. Will be steering straight for those games once again.
I will be breaking this slate down into 3 easy categories for each position.
VALUE PLAY – This play will be under $5,000
SMASH PLAY – The best play that will exceed normal expectations of a player
NO THANKS – Popular play that I will be avoiding
Point Guard
VALUE PLAY – Elie Okobo ($3,700) – The Suns are pitiful and loaded with injuries right now. They are still an NBA team required to play and shoot hoops though. Okobo should see playing time even in garbage time. He’s scored 12 and 18 points in his last 2 games. No reason he shouldn’t see double-digit real points again.
SMASH PLAY –Â Jamal Murray ($7,000) –Â Pretty solid spot here for Jamal Murray. Always looking to target the Bulls guards, especially while Kris Dunn is out. He’s put up 17 and 19 shots in his last 2 games. He’s taken over since Will Barton went down with his injury. Blowout risk is a factor here but Murray is the kind of guy who can go for 40 real points in a game.
NO THANKS –Â Brandon Ingram ($6,300) –Â Ingram actually had a really nice comeback game from his suspension the other night. 9-18 shooting and 3-5 from deep. Very solid. However, the issue with the Lakers is they run such a deep rotation that he only saw 25 minutes of action. Don’t go box score watching. Ingram could easily end up with less than 20 fantasy points on the night.
Shooting Guard
VALUE PLAY –Â Derick Rose ($4,900)Â – Rose has been getting solid run with minutes between 27-30 in his last 4 games. His lowest shot total was 12 in that 4 game span as well. The “good” news is he has only shot above 40% once in that span as well. If he can get hot in a game we are definitely looking at 30+ fantasy points with 40 point upside.
SMASH PLAY – Jrue Holiday ($7,200) – Blowout will definitely be a factor anytime you are playing the Warriors. However, with Elfriid Payton already ruled out Holiday will be the main ball handler. If this game can stay even remotely close this fast-paced game suits him perfectly. Last game will Elf out he was 2 rebounds and 1 assist shy of a triple-double. I’ll be going right back to him here.
NO THANKS –Â Zach Lavine ($7,400) –Â The Nuggets defense looks extremely good this year. Lavine hasn’t exactly been lighting it up when it comes to the counting stats this season. If he doesn’t get at least 25 real points in a game he won’t reach any sort of value. I think Denver keeps him in check and will be a full fade for me.
Small Forward
VALUE PLAY –Â Marco Belinelli ($4,000) –Â There isn’t a ton of value at SF tonight. I would probably look elsewhere for value. But you could do worse than Belinelli in a game that will most likely be a blowout in the 2nd half. He’s seen at least 9 shot attempts in his last 4 games and has scored above 22 fantasy points in 3 of those 4.
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SMASH PLAY –Â Kevin Durant ($9,600) –Â In my opinion, Kevin Durant is on par with LeBron James in terms of fantasy production and we get an almost $2,000 discount on him in a very fast paced game vs. NO. Blowouts happen with the Warriors any night since they are gods, but I don’t see anyone on NO being able to guard and stay with Durant. Not that anyone really can.
NO THANKS –Â Demar DeRozan ($9,500) –Â I think the trade to the Spurs ignited something in DeRozan for sure. He’s been going off. We know he can score but he’s been doing it with rebounds and assists now. Very impressive. That being said, I don’t see a scenario Phoenix keeps this within 20 points. Don’t plan on seeing much of DeRozan in the 4th quarter.
Power Forward
VALUE PLAY –Â Taj Gibson ($4,300) –Â He’s been very consistent even with sporadic minutes. He’s really been blocking shots a lot lately as well with at least 2 in 3 of his last 4 games. Also hasn’t been below 22.5 fantasy points in his last 4 games either. Which at $4,300, you really can’t go wrong.
SMASH PLAY –Â (Jabari Parker) – He’s been sticking with the 2nd unit for the 2 games that Bobby Portis has been sidelined. I think that opens up more usage for him actually. He’s looked more involved with Portis out. He played 34 mins vs ATL and 26 vs. GS even in a 25 point blowout. He’s from Chicago, and I think he’s motivated to show them and the NBA what he can do. I wouldn’t be surprised if he busted out with a 25 points 10 rebound game.
NO THANKS –Â Kyle Kuzma ($6,100) –Â Kuzma is another guy that doesn’t compile stats too well. He gets most of his production from scoring. Which is great, but not so much for fantasy purposes. Brandon Ingram and Rondo are back as well to clog up minutes too. I like Kuzma, but I just can’t play him until some injuries occur for the Lakers.
Center
VALUE PLAY –Â Mitchell Robinson ($3,600) –Â There isn’t a ton of value tonight on Center, much like SF. However, Robinson has started the last 2 games and seen inconsistent minutes but I like the guy for his athleticism. He can put up multiple blocks in a game and is good around the paint. Throw a flyer on him if you’re in need of salary relief at Center.
SMASH PLAY –Â Blake Griffin ($9,400) –Â Blake Griffin has shown some flashes this year that he is taking it to another gear in Detroit and wants to show he is better off without the Clippers. Brooklyn is middle of the road in all defensive categories so their defense doesn’t scare me. The likes of Ed Davis and Hollis-Jefferson should struggle to keep up with Blake. He’s coming off another good game vs. Boston with a nice double-double. I think he’s got a great shot at 30 real points.
NO THANKS –Â Nikola Jokic ($9,700) –Â Hard to put Jokic on here as he’s one of the few guys that can legitimately go off for 80+ fantasy points in a game. He really hasn’t hit stride so far this season though. He’s gone off for 80+ fantasy points once but otherwise hasn’t been above 46.25 fantasy points. I’m going to hold off until I see him hit more of a stride and pay down for someone like Black Griffin or Kevin Durant in the same price range.
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