NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Advice (12/16/2016)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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Friday night in the NBA features a 10-game slate of action. As always be sure to watch for late-breaking news before finalizing your lineup. So, with that here are my FanDuel player recommendations for the Friday slate…

NBA DFS FanDuel lineup advice for December 16

Point Guards

Top Play 

Kyle Lowry (TOR) $8,600

Lowry has scored at least 35 FanDuel points in nine of his last 10 games. He has the potential to score over 50 points on Friday in a favorable matchup against the Hawks who have allowed increased production to opposing point guards in points (+11.6%), rebounds (+17.3%) and assists (+16.5%).

Value Pick 

Elfrid Payton (ORL) $5,700

Payton profiles as a better GPP play than he does for Cash games with his erratic play as shown by his 50.6 FanDuel points on Tuesday after scoring less than 21 FanDuel points in the three games proceeding it. Payton has an opportunity for another explosion game on Friday when the Magic take on the Nets in a game with one of the highest Vegas totals on the slate in a plus matchup.

Other Options: John Wall (WAS) $9,800 / Jrue Holiday (NO) $7,400 / Sergio Rodriguez (PHI) $5,000

Shooting Guards

Top Pick 

James Harden (HOU) $11,800

Harden is the highest priced player on the slate Friday night. He is a lock for at least 45 FanDuel points but needs closer to 60 to pay off his high price tag. He has the potential to reach that number on Friday in the game with the highest Vegas total against the Pelicans who have allowed a few extra points to opposing shooting guards this season.

Value Pick 

Evan Fournier (ORL) $5,900

Fournier has improved on his peripheral stats over the last few games with at least six assists in three straight games to go along with at least 23 points in each of those games. He will look to make it four straight games with those numbers in a favorable matchup against the Nets who have allowed more points (+9.5%) and assists (+10.0%) to opposing shooting guards.

Other Options: Demar DeRozan (TOR) $8,400 / Lou Williams (LAL) $5,600 / Tony Allen (MEM) $5,200

Small Forwards

Top Pick 

Jimmy Butler (CHI) $9,000

Butler is far and away the top small forward on the slate Friday night. He gets a favorable matchup against the Bucks in which he could outpace all other small forwards by 15 FanDuel points giving those that use him a big advantage over the those who choose to fade him.

Value Pick 

Robert Covington (PHI) $5,000

Covington has come on over his last two games averaging 22 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. He will get a favorable matchup against the Lakers who have allowed increased production to opposing small forwards in points (+9.5%) and rebounds (+4.1%).

Other Options: Aaron Gordon (ORL) $4,700 / Thabo Sefolosha (ATL) $4,500 / Jeff Green (ORL) $3,900

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Power Forwards

Top Pick 

Paul Millsap (ATL) $8,300

Millsap is one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the NBA. He has scored at least 39 FanDuel points in each of his last four games since missing a few games with a hip injury. He can stuff the stat sheet in multiple categories including assists and rebounds where the Raptors have allowed increase production to opposing power forwards.

Value Pick 

Trevor Booker (BKN) $6,000

Booker has pulled down at least 12 rebounds in four of his last five games. He will have an opportunity for another big rebound day against the Magic who have allowed an extra 2.7% board to opposing power forwards.

Other Options: Anthony Davis (NO) $11,800 / Serge Ibaka (ORL) $6,200 / Ersan Ilyasova (PHI) $5,500

Centers 

Top Pick

Andre Drummond (DET) $8,300

Drummond only managed three points against the Mavericks on Wednesday but he extended his double-digit rebound streak to eight games. Look for the points to return on Friday against the Wizards who have allowed an additional 5.5% points to opposing centers to go along with more rebounds (+4.1%).

Value Pick 

Jahlil Okafor (PHI) $5,100

Okafor has seen his minutes and production increase recently as he has scored at least 20 FanDuel points in each of his last seven games regardless of if Joel Embiid has played or not. The return of Nerlens Noel could be another story, however. Watch closely to see which of the big men are playing on Friday, if all three play then you may want to pivot to a different option at center.

Other Options: Al Horford (BOS) $7,700 / Joel Embiid (PHI) $7,100 / Brook Lopez (BKN) $7,000

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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