NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Advice (3/10/2017)

In DFS you often hear of stacking especially in MLB and the NFL but not too often is stacking discussed or a good play in the NBA. However, sometimes you get the perfect storm that can lead you to a stack in the NBA that can pay off. We have that scenario on Friday’s eight-game slate where you have the combo of Karl-Anthony Towns and Ricky Rubio playing at home in a game with one of the highest Vegas totals and a fairly close line against the Warriors. So tonight look to stack’em up!

As usual, I will be picking “One Stud” who is priced over $9,000 on FanDuel as my stud to pay up for on the night. Then for each position, I will give a “Top Play” who comes in at $9,000 or less and finally a “Value Pick” that is $6,000 or less. Hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot if you have any feedback.

As always be sure to watch for late-breaking news before finalizing your lineup. So, with that here are my FanDuel player recommendations for the Friday slate…

NBA DFS FanDuel lineup advice for March 10, 2017

One Stud

Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) $10,600
Towns is by far the premier center play on the Friday night slate. He has been crushing it over his last seven games with at least 21 points and 14 boards in every game while averaging over almost 51 FanDuel points during that stretch with five of those games coming on the road. He returns home tonight where he has been even more productive this season averaging almost six more FanDuel points per game (47.2 at home versus 41.4 on the road). He also gets a pace up game against the Warriors who have allowed an increase in points, rebounds, assists and steals to opposing C. Time to pair him up

Point Guards

Top Play: Ricky Rubio (MIN) $7,100

Rubio is the perfect complement to Towns and provides a good correlation play as he dishes out assists to the big man in a pace up game against the Warriors. Rubio has also been playing really well lately topping 30 FanDuel points in six straight games including tough road games against the Spurs and Jazz. He has also averaged 42.9 FanDuel points in his last two games. Rubio also has favorable home/road splits this season averaging over four more FanDuel points per game at home (30.5 versus 26.1). Firing up the pair of Rubio and Towns is a good play in both Cash and GPP lineups.

Value Pick: Cory Joseph (TOR) $5,000

Joseph had a lot of buzz in the DFS world when he initially took over for the injured Kyle Lowry but when he failed to pay big dividends right away the buzz subsided. While Joseph still doesn’t have big upside, he has settled in nicely to his starting role averaging 13.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists over his last three games. He should be able to bring his recent consistency to a favorable matchup against the Hawks who have allowed increased production in points (+3.8%) and assists (+7.8%) to PG and put together another solid game finishing around 5x his low $5,000 salary.

Other Options: Stephen Curry (GS) $10,200 / Isaiah Thomas (BOS) $9,200 / Kemba Walker (CHA) $8,400

Shooting Guards

Top Pick: Bradley Beal (WAS) $7,600

Beal has shown a solid floor with upside over the past eight games with at least 31 FanDuel points in each game with three games over 41 FanDuel points during that stretch. It is that floor with upside that makes Beal a great option in both Cash and GPP lineups in a favorable matchup against the Kings who have allowed an increase in points (+4.9%), rebounds (+2.9%) and steals (+18.3%) to opposing SG.

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Value Pick: Evan Fournier (ORL) $5,600

Fournier has seen his production rise over the last three games with Nikola Vucevic out of the lineup averaging 29.4 FanDuel points per game. Fournier is a lock for at least 34 minutes which he has reached in nine straight games. He has a good matchup against the Hornets who have allowed increased production in points, rebounds and assists to opposing SF.

Other Options: James Harden (HOU) $11,800 / Dwyane Wade (CHI) $7,700 / Seth Curry (DAL) $6,200

Small Forwards

Top Pick: Jimmy Butler (CHI) $9,100

Butler was in the running for the “One Stud” of the night but with his price close to my $9,000 threshold, I will recommend him at SF instead. While Dwyane Wade is expected to return to the lineup on Friday, Butler is still in an excellent position to have a big night in an up-tempo game against the Rockets. The Rockets have struggled to stop opposing SF this season allowing more points (+8.3%), rebounds (+4.0%) and assists (+12.9%) to a player that already has a high floor. Between the favorable matchup, pace and big minutes Butler will see makes him a great play in any format.

Value Pick: Harrison Barnes (DAL) $6,000

Barnes production has been down slightly over his last few games but with the Brooklyn Nets coming to town he is in a great spot for a bounce back performance. The Nets have been smashed by opposing SF this season allowing an increase in points (+8.8%) and rebounds (+8.8%) which should allow Barnes to take advantage with the big minutes that he sees on a nightly basis.

Other Options: Paul George (IND) $7,900 / Khris Middleton (MIL) $6,800 / Terrance Ross (ORL) $4,500

Power Forwards

Top Pick: Draymond Green (GS) $8,100

As the Warriors get used to life without Kevin Durant again, Green has started to relive his consistent form that he demonstrated last season. Green has produced between 12-14 points and 6-8 rebounds in each of his last six games. With his points and rebounds giving him a solid floor, it is his assists, blocks and steals that allow him to have the upside for a big night. Paul Millsap also makes a solid play at a similar salary.

Value Pick: Marvin Williams (CHA) $5,900

With Frank Kaminsky out with an injury, Williams has played at least 37 minutes in each of his last three games for the Hornets. While his fantasy production remains volatile from nigh-to-night he has produced over 35 FanDuel points in two of his last three games. He doesn’t have an easy matchup against the Magic but at a position without many “slam dunk” options, I’ll take the guaranteed minutes and hope the production follows.

Other Options: Paul Millsap (ATL) $7,900 / Dirk Nowitzki (DAL) $6,200 / Aaron Gordon (ORL) $5,600

Centers 

Top Pick: Bismack Biyombo (ORL) $4,900

Assuming that Nikola Vucevic remains out for Friday night’s matchup with the Hornets, Biyombo remains a strong DFS option at center. His salary remains low for a player receiving over 35 minutes of playing time while averaging a double-double (10.0 points and 11.7 boards) over his last three games. He gets a favorable matchup against Cody Zeller and the Hornets interior defense that has allowed increased production in points (+1.2%) and rebounds (+8.2%) to opposing C. Biyombo’s upside makes him the preferred play over his counterpart, Zeller.

Value Pick: Cody Zeller (CHA) $5,100

Zeller has returned from injury to take on big minutes for the Hornets with Kaminsky out. Zeller played 42 minutes in the last game and should see at least 35 minutes again tonight against the Magic. While Zeller does not have the upside that Biyombo has, he does provide a solid floor, producing at least 20 FanDuel points in each of his last four games. Exposure to Zeller should likely be limited to Cash games.

Other Options: Nerlens Noel (DAL) $6,200 / Al Horford (BOS) $6,000 / Ian Mahinmi (WAS) $3,900

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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