NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Advice (3/17/2017)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day! With the March Madness in full swing now it is hard to focus on the NBA but there are still important games to be played as teams fight to get into the playoffs or for playoff seeding. Friday night’s eight-game slate as a parade of injured point guards which opens up a lot of value at the position. In honor of March Madness, I will include each player’s college instead of their NBA team. You might want to give some additional attention to players whose alma mater is in the NCAA tournament or have some fun and build a lineup with all players that have a March Madness game today.

As usual, I will be picking “One Stud” who is priced over $9,000 on FanDuel as my stud to pay up for on the night. Then for each position, I will give a “Top Play” who comes in at $9,000 or less and finally a “Value Pick” that is $6,000 or less. Hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot if you have any feedback.

As always be sure to watch for late-breaking news before finalizing your lineup. So, with that here are my FanDuel player recommendations for the Friday slate…

NBA DFS FanDuel lineup advice for March 17, 2017

One Stud

James Harden (Arizona St.) $11,800

Harden has looked almost human over the last couple of weeks with six of his last 10 games resulting in less than 50 FanDuel points. Friday feels like a night where Harden asserts himself against the Pelicans in a game that could remain close (Rockets only favored by 5) and has the highest Vegas total (228) of the slate.

Point Guards

Top Play: Elfrid Payton (Louisiana-Lafayette) $7,200

With the top priced PG on the slate either injured or questionable, Payton comes in as the top play at the position. He has stepped up his game recently including three triple-doubles in his last six games while scoring over 44 FanDuel points in those games. He has a favorable matchup against the Suns in what should be a high-scoring game giving him a chance for another triple-double and big fantasy night.

Value Pick: Tyler Ulis (Kentucky) $5,400

With Eric Bledsoe out, Ulis will see big minutes as the Suns PG over the rest of the season. He played 39 minutes in the previous game posting 13 points and 13 assists. His price will surely continue to rise over the next few games so be sure to get in on the action while his price is still reasonable. He also gets a plus matchup against the Magic who have allowed a small increase in production in points and assists to opposing PG.

Other Options: Jeremy Lin (Harvard) $5,900 / Malcolm Brogdon (Virginia) $5,000 / Brandon Jennings (Oak Hill Academy) $4,400 (if John Wall is out)

Shooting Guards

Top Pick: Devin Booker (Kentucky) $6,900

Booker will also benefit from Bledsoe being out of the lineup as it will open up even more shot attempts. He has back-to-back games with 26 attempts and should be a good candidate to score close to 30 points a night with that kind of volume.

Value Pick: Jordan Crawford (Xavier) $3,500

Crawford should be flying high after his Xavier Musketeers won in the NCAA tourney yesterday. As for his NBA opportunities he has made the most of it, scoring double-digits in each of his first five games with the Pelicans. He should be able to make it six in an up-tempo game against the Rockets on Friday night and at the stone-minimum price on FanDuel (not sure they realize he is in the league yet) he makes for a great value option to fit in some high-priced studs.

Other Options: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece) $10,500 / Avery Bradley (Texas) $6,400 / Marcus Smart (Oklahoma St.) $6,300

Small Forwards

Top Pick: Jimmy Butler (Marquette) $8,700

I didn’t even have to break my rules to fit Jimmy Buckets into my recommendations today. With Dwyane Wade out for the rest of the season, Butler will see a usage increase (+5.1%) as the Bulls fight to reach the playoffs. Look for Butler to play about 40 minutes a night giving him a very high floor with some upside in a matchup with Wizards who have given up an increase in points (+2.1%) and assists (+1.8%) to SF.

Value Pick: Jae Crowder (Marquette) $5,600

Look at that a pair of Marquette alums at SF today. The absence of Isaiah Thomas for the next two games will open up opportunities for a variety Celtics such as Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart and even Crowder. With Crowder’s production slipping recently his price is on the low end of what it has been this season. And the matchup is right for him to get back on track against a Nets’ team that allows increased production in points (+6.6%) and rebounds (+9.8%) to opposing SF.

Other Options: Khris Middleton (Texas A&M) $6,600 / Otto Porter (Georgetown) $6,400 / Harrison Barnes (North Carolina) $6,100

Power Forwards

Top Pick: Julius Randle (Kentucky) $6,800

Randle has put together some big fantasy days recently, topping 40 FanDuel points three times in his last five games. He has also been one of the most consistent players on the Lakers with their ever-changing lineup and rotations.

Value Pick: Nikola Mirotic (Montenegro) $4,300

It is hard for me to recommend Mirotic. It seems like every time I am ready to trust the minutes and production he ends up laying an egg. That said, we’ll see if he burns me again tonight after receiving 28+ minutes in each of his last two games while averaging 30.6 FanDuel points. With Wade out, I would expect his playing time and usage to be secure in a good matchup against the Wizards who have allowed increased production in points (+5.4%) and rebounds (+7.8%) to opposing PF.

Other Options: Anthony Davis (Kentucky) $11,200 / Dirk Nowitzki (Germany) $6,300 / Gorgui Dieng (Louisville) $5,300

Centers 

Top Pick: DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky) $9,400

I guess I couldn’t get through the whole article without breaking my rules at least once. Also, did you notice you can almost make a full lineup of just Kentucky Wildcats? Funny how you don’t hear much about this year’s team winning the Title (just sayin’). Anyway, back to Boogie. His production has been all over the place lately which has led to a price decrease for his last couple of games. However, his inconsistent production has been the result of foul trouble, some blowouts and a random benching. Cousins should be in good position for a big game on Friday in a up-tempo game with a favorable matchup against the Rockets.

Value Pick: Alan Williams (UC-Santa Barbara) $5,800

While he still comes off the bench, he has consistently played at least 22 minutes in each of his last 10 games. He has also become very consistent with his fantasy production posting eight double-doubles during that 10-game stretch. He should be a lock for another 25 minutes and around 25-30 FanDuel points in a positive matchup against the Magic.

Other Options: Hassan Whiteside (Marshall) $8,700 / Al Horford (Florida) $6,500 / Greg Monroe (Georgetown) $6,500

 


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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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