I’m back from my one day hiatus, miss me? Not sure how many of my readers are NFL fans, but man what a finish to the Super Bowl! As I’ve mentioned before, I’m a 49er’s fan, and I loved seeing it end like that. Sorry Seahawks fans.
So let’s get to why you’re really here. Today’s 8 game slate has much more appeal then yesterdays 2 games! I ran a 50/50 yesterday, and I had $6500 left on the table!
Today’s Top 10 Plays was hard to do today. There are very few “must starts” at the top, so some are a bit of a stretch. Lets get to it.
TODAY’S TOP 10 PLAYS
10) Andrew Wiggins This is one of those “reaches” I was talking about when trying to fill out my Top 10. Dallas ranks in the bottom third in defense, and Wiggins is coming off a career game. There is the potential for a let down, but I still like him at $6,900.
9) Jeff Teague I think in general he is over-priced, but I like him tonight. Why? The Pelicans don’t defend the guard position, point or shooting, very well. Chris Paul and Monta Ellis have both had big games against them recently. Even guys like Afflalo and Jakarr Sampson have had relatively big games against them recently.
8) Monta Ellis His recent trend would seem to suggest this game will be in the 20’s for him. In his last 5 games he has had, in this order; 46, 22, 44, 27, 51 FDP nights. His latest being that 51 pointer. So if this were a logic question on a test, the next number should be in the 20’s. Good thing for us this isn’t a logic question, and good thing for Monta is he gets to play the Timberwolves, making him my number 8 play of the day.
7) Paul Milsap I had both big men in my Top 10 a couple of nights ago, and they didn’t disappoint. I’m putting them both in again. These 2 guys are just too good and too consistent to not have in your lineup. He has only one game with less than 30 FDP in his last 10 games. Even if The Brow plays in this one, I’d still roll him out there, and if AD sits, even better.
6) Kyrie Irving Lebron is back, so Kyrie goes back to the second option on the team, but the Cavs are playing well now and there is enough to go around. There is some blowout potential here, but even in a blowout, Lebron and Kyrie will do the scoring here.
5) Russell Westbrook Just like the guy at number 6, his perineal all-star teammate is back, and that hurts his value a little, but not as much as it hurts Kyrie, thus the reason he is one spot ahead. I mean this is the same guy that put up a 70 FDP night with Durant on the floor!
4) Al Horford As I mentioned before with Milsap, you can’t argue their consistency. Like Milsap, he has one game in his last 10 under 30 FDP, and that was the night he didn’t play due to rest! He is a lock for 35 FDP with 50 FDP potential.
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3) Blake Griffin His last game versus the Nets was a huge blowout, Griffin only played 25 minutes……and he still had 36 FDP! That’s really all you need to know.
2) Nikola Vucevic This pick is based solely on Oladipo’s status. He Oladipo sits, the Vucevic will be the primary source of offense. The only thing giving me pause is his last game versus the Thunder wasn’t a good outing. He a virtual lock for a double double.
1) LeBron James LeBron is the bane of my Fanduel existence. Every time I put him in my lineup, he disappoints. Then a night in which he isn’t supposed to play, I play Irving, and LeBron ends up playing! On the other hand, I would be crazy to not have him at number 1. There is a blowout potential here, but LeBron will still get his numbers.
As always, be sure to check the injury reports before locking in your lineups. I try to update the blog whenever there is major injury that would change my Top 10, but I can’t promise I’ll be able to sometimes.
The “Dunks and Passes” tonight were much easier to come up with, as there is a ton on value plays tonight, and just as many guys I’d stay away from.
DUNKS
- PG Devin Harris **DUNK OF THE NIGHT** This pick comes with a bit of a caveat as he’ll probably be heavily owned. With Rondo out, he is expected to get the start and a ton of minutes. At $3,500 that’s value that can’t be ignored. So what if he’ll be owned by everyone, its how you spend that extra cap space that’ll win you some money.
- PG Elfrid Payton If feel like this guy always seems to find his way to the value picks by my peers, and here he is again. He a had a rough game versus Dallas, but I expect him to bounce back. I like him even more if Oladipo sits, as they’ll need him to score more. Great value at $6000.
- SG Giannis Antetokounmpo Wow that was hard to spell…Alphabet has been playing well of late, his minutes are fairly consistent, and he gets a soft Raptors team. At $5900 you can’t beat that.
- SG OJ Mayo How is this guy still only $5000? He has scored 25+ his last 5 games while getting 25 minutes a game. That is 1 point per minute! As with Alphabet, he plays the Raptors. It’s not often there are 2 value plays at the same position from the same team, but that’s what we have here.
- SF Robert Covington Dude is a stat sheet stuffer. Double digit points last 3 games and 6 out of his last 8. Only 2 of those 8 with less the 5 rebounds, and his last 4 games has had 3 or more assists. Only $5600 in a very top-heavy position. If you don’t go with the top guys, I like him better than any of the second tier, 6K and under guys.
- PF Patrick Patterson Patterson was brought to my attention a week or so ago by the guys over at moxyball(if you don’t read their blog check it out) and ever since then I’ve been rolling him out there and being rewarded. If Valanciunas doesn’t play, I really really like him. Check Val’s status, but either way, at $4600, even in a tough matchup, that’s a steal.
- PF Nerlens Noel He has been a good value for a while now, and he should continue again tonight. The good thing about rookies is, when there is a blowout, they don’t normally sit. So even in junk time, he’ll get minutes. Junk time will probably help his value.
- C Alexis Ajinca The caveat here is the status of Anthony Davis. If Davis plays, he goes from a great value at $4200, to don’t even think about rostering him. If we get an early enough confirmation that Davis is out, plug and play with Ajinca. As a Pels fan (bet you don’t hear that often) I’m pretty plugged in to them, so I’ll update as soon as I hear something.
PASSES
- PG Kyle Lowry I feel like I put Lowry in the Pass column a lot? I think it’s because his ceiling is so low. You’re not going to get a 40FDP night from him. He is going to get you 27-38 FDP every night, so his floor is high and ceiling is low. Tonight he has a tough matchup with the Bucks, I’m not expecting much return on his $8400 price tag.
- SG Eric Bledsoe He has made both my Dunks and Pass list in the last week, and I’ve been right every-time. He has a tough matchup with the Grizzlies, and as the highest priced SG tonight, I think there is better value here.
- SG DeMar DeRozan DeDe has been on a tear of late, but a run in with the Bucks may slow him down a bit. The last time out he didn’t score a single point, and only ended up with 8 FDP. Too risky.
- C Gorgui Dieng **PASS OF THE NIGHT** Here is a microcosm of the Timberwolves. You have a guy playing really well, double-digit rebounds in 4 of his last 5, and respectable scoring numbers. So what do you do? You bench him versus the Cavs and give him 20 minutes! Seriously! I had him in my Dunks column for that game, and played him in every lineup I had that night!
As promised, I said I’d start posting my lineup again today, so here it is. You should recognize the guys in this lineup, as all of them were called out above. There is $500 of wiggle room if you wanna make some tweaks, but I didn’t see anything worth upgrading.
That wraps it up for today. As always, follow me on Twitter @geofflambert77 and subscribe to the blog.
Good Luck!
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