Each week, I’ll give my favorite plays for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted earlier in the week, follow me on Twitter @fantasybeast15 for updates!
In cash games, you should always look for players to reach 3x value.
DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value
Example: If Player A has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, he would reach 3x value based on the formula below.
15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value
I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup. This isn’t a perfect rule, as your expensive players may struggle to reach 3x due to their high price, but your cheaper players should be able to reach 4x or 5x value to make up the difference. Considering creating your own logical stat lines to determine your comfort levels with players in your lineup.
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NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 1
QB – Carson Wentz at (WAS) – $5,300
While Washington has Josh Norman, they don’t project to be a strong defense against the pass. Norman should shadow Alshon Jeffery, forcing Wentz to focus on other receivers, but Wentz is simply too cheap at $5,300. To fit in the top two running backs, we need to save at quarterback. I’d rather play Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota or Aaron Rodgers, but I’m prioritizing David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell over a quarterback this week. The Eagles have a team total just over 24 points. It’s not the highest team total on the slate, but it’s high enough where I feel comfortable rostering Wentz for his price.
3x stat line: 200 passing yards, 2 passing touchdown, -1 rushing yards = 15.9 DK Points
RB – David Johnson at (DET) – $9,400
Johnson is a volume monster in a quality offense. While he is on the road, his receiving ability makes him a top play regardless of matchup. I’m a bit worried the Lions try to slow down the game and keep the Cardinals offense off the field, but with Johnson’s volume, its hard to pass him up for $9,400.
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3x stat line: 19 carries, 102 rushing yards, 5 catches, 40 yards, 1 total touchdown = 28.2 DK Points
RB – Le’Veon Bell at (CLE) – $9,800
The Steelers are a heavy favorite against the Browns and should lead for most of this game. This positive game script helps Bell’s upside while his receiving ability solidifies his floor. The Steelers have a team total just over 27 points. With Ben Roethlisberger’s road struggles, it’s possible the Steelers lean on Bell a little more than they normally would.
3x stat line: 20 carries, 104 rushing yards, 5 catches, 50 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 29.4 DK Points
RB – Carlos Hyde vs. (CAR) – $4,600
Hyde faces the Panthers in a home game. I don’t like rostering a running back who is an underdog, but for the price I’m considering it this week. The 49ers don’t have much behind Hyde, so his volume seems safe. The 49ers offense should be improved, and I’ve seen some sharp people who expect the game to be competitive throughout. If the game stays competitive, I like Hyde even more.
3x stat line: 16 carries, 80 rushing yards, 3 catches, 28 receiving yards = 13.8 DK Points
RB – Todd Gurley vs. (IND) – $6,000
Gurley faces the Colts and is in one of the best spots of the week. The Colts offense should struggle, allowing the Rams to gain a lead and run the ball. Gurley is a solid correlation play with the Rams defense. Additionally, Lance Dunbar is injured, giving Gurley access to the receiving role. Gurley could push for 25 touches in this game which is enough volume in this matchup for $6,000.
3x stat line: 20 carries, 80 rushing yards, 2 catches, 20 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 18.0 DK Points
WR – Larry Fitzgerald at (DET) – $5,900
Fitzgerald will face the Lions who struggle to stop slot receivers. Quandre Diggs should match up against Fitzgerald for most of this game and ranked as one of the worst corners in the league last season. Fitzgerald has bankable volume, catching over 100 passes in each of the past two years. Again, the Lions could slow this game down, but Fitzgerald has a fantastic matchup, sees plenty of volume, and will be involved in the red zone. He’s one of the safest receivers on the slate.
3x stat line: 5 catches, 67 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown = 17.7 DK Points
WR – Brandon Marshall at (DAL) – $5,100
Odell Beckham Jr. is “50/50 to play” on Sunday night and if he doesn’t suit up, Marshall is a lock in cash games. Even if Beckham plays he may be limited, and Marshall will still be solid with advantageous matchup against Nolan Carroll and Chidobe Awuzie. It’s risky to play an older receiver in his first game on a new team, but I may take the risk depending on the status of Beckham.
3x stat line: 5 catches, 43 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 15.3 DK Points
WR – Kendall Wright vs. (ATL) – $3,200
With the injury to Cameron Meredith, Wright should see plenty of volume in this game. The Bears are underdogs, and will likely trail for the majority of the game leading to high pass volume. Wright is priced near the minimum, and to fit both Johnson and Bell in our lineups, we need a solid punt. Wright should see enough volume from the slot to pay off his salary in a major way.
3x stat line: 4 catches, 56 receiving yards = 9.6 DK Points
TE – Zach Ertz at (WAS) – $3,500
Ertz is priced a bit too cheap for the volume I expect him to receive. With Jordan Matthews out of the picture, Ertz should be in line for the majority of the targets in the middle of the field. Carson Wentz and Ertz clicked toward the end of the season last year, and while Ertz has been a slow starter, I’m hoping his connection with Wentz can carry through to week one. Additionally, Alshon Jeffery will likely see shadow coverage from Josh Norman, forcing even more targets to Ertz.
3x stat line: 5 catches, 55 receiving yards = 10.5 DK Points
D/ST – Los Angeles Rams vs. (IND) – $3,200
The Rams face the Colts in a home game. I prefer both the Texans and Bills for raw points, but I need the extra salary to pay up for other positions. The Rams are favored in this matchup and have a quality defense. Without Andrew Luck, the Colts may struggle to move the ball. Scott Tolzien is one of the worst QBs on the slate, and Frank Gore doesn’t strike fear in the opposing defense anymore. The Colts have a team total lower than 19 points. If the Rams can jump out to an early lead, this game will set up nicely for their defense.
3x stat line: 14-20 points against, 3 sacks, 3 turnovers = 10.0 DK Points (3.13x)
D/ST – Buffalo Bills vs. (NYJ) – $3,900
The Bills face the Jets who have the lowest team total on the slate. The Jets offense is horrible and the Bills should have a solid lead throughout the game. The game script should set up for the Bills to be the top defense on the slate. The choice will be whether we pay for the top defense or save on the Rams D/ST.
3x stat line: 14-20 points against, 5 sacks, 3 turnovers = 12.0 DK Points (3.08x)
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