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Each week, I’ll post my cash game picks for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted earlier in the week, some picks may change slightly by Sunday. Follow me on Twitter @fantasybeast15 for updates!
In cash games, you should always look for each player to reach at least 3x value.
DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value
Example: If Carson Wentz has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, Wentz would reach 3x value based on the formula below.
15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value
I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup.
Week 9 Lineup Review
Week 9 was one of the craziest weeks of DFS I’ve ever experienced. Injuries, trades, and suspensions changed the entire slate multiple times throughout the week. All week, I saw Dez Bryant as a lock and had Michael Thomas and Jack Doyle as a near locks. When Ezekiel Elliott was allowed to play, I saw him as a near lock as well against the Chiefs 31st ranked rush defense. When Zach Ertz was a surprise inactive on Sunday morning, Trey Burton became the most obvious lock on the entire slate. I was fine with the Colts defense at minimum salary simply because I didn’t expect them to score negative points, and I liked what it did for the rest of my lineup. I wanted to play Jared Goff and T.Y. Hilton because it made the most logical sense, but Hilton and Ryan Grant showed similar floors over the past few weeks, and I expected Grant to see a target boost. While Hilton had superior upside over Grant, I thought Drew Brees had superior upside over Goff as well, and my projections had the Brees/Grant combo as the better play. I decided to chop my cash games at a 60/40 split. My Goff/Hilton lineup absolutely crushed cash games, beating 90+% of my opponents. My Brees/Grant lineup flopped, beating just 35% of my opponents.
NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 10
QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. (NYJ) – $4,900
Fitzpatrick will face his former team in a home game and is priced at just $4,900. I always start my quarterback research by scrolling to the bottom and working my way from the cheapest QB to the most expensive. After Jameis Winston was ruled out, I knew Fitzpatrick would be cheap, but I was surprised he was still under $5K. The Jets rank just 21st against the pass (all defensive rankings are from Football Outsiders DVOA) and while Fitzpatrick will be without Mike Evans, I can’t get past the price. While some may expect the Buccaneers to lean on the run a bit more, the Jets have given up just one rushing touchdown in their past seven games, so most of the teams scoring should come through the air.
3x stat line: 250 passing yards, 1 passing touchdowns, 7 rushing yards = 14.7 DK Points
RB – Le’Veon Bell at (IND) – $9,800
Bell is in a dream spot against the Colts in a game where the Steelers are favored by ten. The Colts defense ranks 21st against the run, but rank dead last against receiving running backs. It’s no secret Bell is a high-volume running back and should push for 30 touches in this game especially if it stays close. Even with other expensive running backs in great spots, I see Bell as a near lock in cash games.
3x stat line: 19 carries, 114 rushing yards, 5 catches, 40 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 29.4 DK Points
RB – Jordan Howard vs. (GB) – $6,100
Howard has been a high volume running back this season, averaging just over 25 touches per game since week two. The Bears have been underdogs for much of the year, usually keeping me from rostering Howard. They are currently 5.5 point favorites against a struggling Packers team. The Bears have a team total of 21.75 which isn’t high, but you have to expect most of the scoring to come on the ground as the Bears have yet give Mitchell Trubisky free rein. I expect Howard to top 25 touches in this matchup, and can easily see him finding the end zone.
3x stat line: 23 carries, 99 rushing yards, 1 catch, 14 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 18.3 DK Points
RB – Bilal Powell at (TB) – $4,000
Matt Forte missed Thursday’s practice and looks unlikely to play on Sunday. Powell is priced at just $4,000 and should see an increased workload. He’s a great pass-catcher, creating a high floor, but has also rushed for 49.8 more yards/game when Forte has been inactive over the past two seasons (Rotoviz Game Splits App).
3x stat line: 14 carries, 55 rushing yards, 3 catches, 35 receiving yards = 12.0 DK Points
WR – Antonio Brown at (IND) – $9,500
I wasn’t expecting to pay up at receiver this week, but with all the value in the Jets/Buccaneers game, it’s fairly easy to fit both Bell and Brown. Playing both Bell and Brown in the same lineups is an attempt to capture the majority of the fantasy production from a team with the third highest team total on the slate. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the Colts rank 25th against the pass and Brown is the best receiver in the league.
3x stat line: 9 catches, 105 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 28.5 DK Points
WR – Sterling Shepard at (SF) – $5,500
Shepard saw nine targets last week as the Giants default WR1. Evan Engram is the only other quality receiver on the team, but the 49ers are the #1 defense against tight ends. This should filter a few more targets toward Shepard who has a quality matchup against the 49ers 27th ranked pass defense. We can realistically project Shepard for 10 targets against a bad defense and he only costs $5,500. He’s a near lock in cash games.
3x stat line: 7 catches, 95 receiving yards = 16.5 DK Points
WR – Adam Humphries vs. (NYJ) – $3,100
Mike Evans is suspended, vacating more than nine targets per game. I expect the targets to be split fairly evenly between the Buccaneers pass catchers, but DeSean Jackson may see shadow coverage from Morris Claiborne, forcing a few more targets toward Chris Godwin, Humphries, and Cameron Brate. I’m expecting 5-7 targets for Humphries which should easily pay off his $3,100 salary.
3x stat line: 4 catches, 53 receiving yards = 9.3 DK Points
TE – Cameron Brate vs. (NYJ) – $4,100
The same arguments for Humphries also apply to Brate. Additionally, without Evans’ big body on the field, Brate could be the go-to guy near the end zone. He’s been solid this season scoring double-digit DK points in every game except two and averages 12.2 DK points per game, just 0.1 points short of reaching cash games value. With the extra targets, Brate’s floor is perfect for cash games.
3x stat line: 6 catches, 63 receiving yards = 12.3 DK Points