NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 12 (Main Slate – 12 Games 11/27/16)

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Each week, I’ll create a cash game lineup for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted by Wednesday, the cash game lineups may change slightly by Sunday.

 

In cash games, you should always look for each player to reach at least 3x value.

DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value

Example: If Carson Wentz has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, Wentz would reach 3x value based on the formula below.

15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value

 

I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup.

Week 11 Lineup Review

Our week 11 lineup did alright, but could have been much better. While our wide receivers did basically nothing, we probably would have been fine if A.J. Green hadn’t injured his hamstring in the first quarter. The lineup scored 133.4 DK points and cashed in some, but not all, of the 50/50s I entered. See last week’s lineup below.

week-11

NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 12

QB – Russell Wilson at (TB) – $6,700

Russell Wilson has averaged 27 DK points over his last three games. The Buccaneers rank 18th against the pass, but have surrendered 325 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game over their past four games. 

3x stat line: 250 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 4 carries, 21 rushing yards = 20.1 DK Points

RB – Jay Ajayi vs. (SF) – $7,600

The 49ers are still terrible against the run, and still lead the league in pace. Ajayi is a near lock for 20 touches against the 32nd ranked rush defense (all defensive rankings are from Football Outsiders), so it’s likely we see Ajayi rush for over 100 yards and/or a score. The Dolphins have a team total of 26 points and are favored at home by 7.5 points, so the game script should favor Ajayi.

3x stat line: 22 carries, 120 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 1 catch, 8 receiving yards = 22.8 DK Points

RB – Rashad Jennings at (CLE) – $5,600

Jennings has taken over as the lead back for the Giants in the past two weeks, averaging 22 touches and six targets per game. The Giants have a team total of 25.5 and are favored by seven, so the game should set up nicely for Jennings, especially against the Browns’ 30th ranked run defense.

3x stat line: 15 carries, 61 rushing yards, 3 catches, 17 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 16.8 DK Points

WR – Doug Baldwin at (TB) – $6,400

The Buccaneers defense has given up at least 100 yards AND a touchdown to opposing wide receivers in every game except two (Carolina, San Francisco). All of that production obviously doesn’t go to a single receiver, but if you’re betting on a Seahawks wide receiver, it has to be Baldwin. I’d like to see Baldwin get a few more targets, but he has a fairly safe floor with Wilson playing at a high level.

3x stat line: 6 catches, 72 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown = 19.2 DK Points

WR – DeVante Parker vs. (SF) – $4,700

Parker has taken over the role as the number one receiver on the Dolphins over the past two weeks, seeing 18 targets. Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry have seen 12 and 11 targets respectively. The 49ers have surrendered fantasy production to larger wide receivers this season, and Parker fits that profile standing at 6’3”. The 49ers rank 21st against the pass, but 28th against WR1s.

3x stat line: 5 catches, 91 receiving yards = 14.1 DK Points

WR – Tyler Boyd at (BAL) – $4,000

With A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard both out this week, Tyler Boyd and Brandon LaFell will have to absorb their targets (almost 14 per game). The Bengals have a team total of only 18.25, so I’m not sure there is a lot of touchdown upside, but Boyd should see 7-10 targets in this game. The Ravens rank 1st against tight ends this season, leading me to believe the targets will be funneled away from Tyler Eifert and toward Boyd and LaFell.

3x stat line: 6 catches, 60 receiving yards = 12.0 DK Points

TE – C.J. Fiedorowicz vs. (SD) – $3,300

Fiedorowicz has at least seven targets in five of his past six games and has become the safety blanket for Brock Osweiler. The Chargers rank 14th against tight ends, but have given up 70+ yards or a touchdown to every decent tight end they have faced (Travis Kelce, Julius Thomas, Delanie Walker), while shutting down sub-par tight ends (Coby Fleener, Jacob Tamme, Virgil Green, Clive Walford, MarQueis Gray).

3x stat line: 5 catches, 49 receiving yards = 9.9 DK Points

FLEX – David Johnson at (ATL) – $8,900

Johnson averages 26.7 DK points per game, which is exactly what he needs to pay off his salary. He’s expensive now, but you’re paying for an incredible floor/ceiling combination. The Falcons rank 28th against the run and give up the most targets and receiving yards per game to opposing running backs.

3x stat line: 18 carries, 98 rushing yards, 5 catches, 59 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 26.7 DK Points

D/ST – Tennessee Titans at (CHI) – $2,800

The Bears are starting Matt Barkley this week who has a career 34.2 quarterback rating. In five career games, he has yet to throw a touchdown pass and has six career interceptions.

3x stat line: 14-20 points against, 2 sacks, 3 total turnovers = 9.0 DK Points (3.2x)

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Quick and accurate fantasy football & baseball advice! Ask questions on Twitter @fantasybeast15 Find content on my website: http://fantasybeast15.com Like my Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/fantasybeast15

FantasyBeast15

Quick and accurate fantasy football & baseball advice! Ask questions on Twitter @fantasybeast15 Find content on my website: http://fantasybeast15.com Like my Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/fantasybeast15

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