1Week 15 Lineup Review
What worked: Cam Newton was in a smash spot against the Packers and responded by throwing four touchdown passes. I talked about Newton’s rushing floor in last week’s article, and the floor was obvious as Newton carried the ball 14 times for 58 yards. Le’Veon Bell and Kenyan Drake were both workhorses again, totaling 57 opportunities. Jamison Crowder caught an early touchdown and finished with 16.5 DK points, paying off his $5,600 salary. The Washington defense was solid, and just missed a defensive touchdown in the first quarter. Finally, the most important play, allowing us to fit the top players into our lineup was Damiere Byrd. On Sunday morning, once Ted Ginn Jr. was ruled out, I toyed with the idea of playing Willie Snead or Brandon Coleman over Byrd. After looking into the data right before lock, I ended up remaining on Byrd for two reasons. First, Ginn only receives 4.5 targets per game. I expected a couple to go to Michael Thomas, maybe a one more to the running backs, which left only an extra target or two to be split between Coleman and Snead. I didn’t think this boost of one target was worth making the switch. The second reason is I liked the stack with Newton for upside in my head-to-head matchups. Byrd made the most of his four targets, scoring 17.5 DK points.
What didn’t work: Obviously Antonio Brown’s 4.4 points were not ideal, but I’m not going to be upset about that. This happens a few times a year where an injury can hurt a good lineup, but it doesn’t mean it was a bad play, just a bit unlucky. Alex Collins disappointed a bit, although he reached 2x value. He had four carries from inside the Cleveland ten yard line, but didn’t score. He also lost 13 carries to Buck Allen, possibly because the game was a bit out of hand.
Week 15 was a profitable week. I cashed in 86% of my head-to-heads and all of my double-ups.