1Week 16 Lineup Review

What worked:

All three of the punts in my lineup reached value. Drew Stanton was unspectacular, but got the job done, reaching 3x his salary. Chris Godwin saw six targets, catching just three of them, but recording 98 receiving yards. He reached 4x his salary while narrowly missing the 100 yard bonus. Antonio Gates was the star of this lineup. He finished with eight targets and 20.1 DK points, more than 8x his salary. These punts allowed me to pay up for some high-priced plays.

Melvin Gordon was a near lock for me with Austin Ekeler unlikely to play any offensive snaps. Brandon Oliver received a few more carries than I expected, but Gordon still recorded 22 opportunities. Once Michael Thomas was added to the injury report, I thought he was too risky to play in cash games. I pivoted down to Mike Evans, who I thought was underpriced considering DeSean Jackson was ruled out. Evans was solid, recording his first 100 yard game of the season. I was then left with $1,200, allowing me to pay up at another position. I chose to swap Devonta Freeman with Rob Gronkowski. I thought Gronkowski was a great play once Rex Burkhead, James White, and Chris Hogan were all ruled out. These injuries opened up plenty of targets in the Patriots offense, and I believed it opened up additional red-zone opportunities as well. This was obvious as three of Gronkowski’s seven targets were end-zone targets.

What didn’t work:

The major decision on Sunday morning was deciding what to do with Dion Lewis. Once White was ruled out, I thought Lewis was one of the best plays on the slate, and I looked to find ways to fit him into my lineup. There were still concerns with Lewis, but the price was more than reasonable. My concerns were the Patriots had refused to give Lewis more than 15 carries in a game this season. I didn’t know if that was because they had Rex Burkhead for most of those games, or if they wanted to keep Lewis healthy for the playoffs by limiting his carries. Additionally, I thought the game would get out of hand (it did), and expected much more of Mike Gillislee and Brandon Bolden. Even with these concerns, Lewis projected to be a top running back value. I considered playing Lewis in place of Elliott and Gronkowski, but I couldn’t find a comfortable way use the additional salary I’d have from making the switch. I ended up fading Lewis in cash, but going heavy on him in both leagues and tournaments.

I expected Ezekiel Elliott to score more points, but the Cowboys shortened three drives with turnovers and failed to give Elliott a touch while near the goal line. With 31 opportunities, Elliott was still a good process play, but the result wasn’t great. Keenan Allen also disappointed, but still saw high volume. He saw ten targets, but finished with 11.3 PPR points, not ideal for $7,700, but a solid process play as well.

Week 15 was a profitable week. I cashed in 72% of my head-to-heads and all of my double-ups.


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