Each week, I’ll post my cash game picks for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted earlier in the week, some picks may change slightly by Sunday. Follow me on Twitter @fantasybeast15 for updates!
In cash games, you should always look for each player to reach at least 3x value.
DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value
Example: If Carson Wentz has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, Wentz would reach 3x value based on the formula below.
15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value
I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup.
Week 4 Lineup Review
Two of my main lineup decisions went against me this week, but one may have been unlucky due to injury. First I was tempted to play Deshaun Watson over Trevor Siemian after seeing plenty of hype about the young rookie, but I try to take quarterbacks who have a higher team total. The Texans had a team total of 20.25 and the Broncos had an implied team total of 24.25, so I went with Siemian. Another decision I struggled with was deciding between Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette for basically the same price. I went with Cook because he had a few extra touches over the past two weeks and was a home favorite. Cook’s injury prevented me from seeing whether this was the right call, but Fournette’s big game proved he was a solid play as well. Even with these decisions going against me, my cash game lineup for week 4 was profitable. I cashed in all of my double-ups and won 90+% of my head-to-head matchups.
NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 5
QB – Brian Hoyer at (IND) – $4,700
Hoyer faces the Colts who rank just 24th in DVOA (Football Outsiders) against the pass this season. The Colts have given up 300+ passing yards or multiple passing touchdowns in every game this season, creating a solid floor for Hoyer. I want to fit in two high-volume running backs and the two top pass catchers in a potential shoot out game, so this is a great way to save salary. Hoyer doesn’t need to do much to pay off his modest price and has a decent floor given the matchup.
3x stat line: 250 passing yards, 1 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing yards = 14.1 DK Points
RB – Le’Veon Bell vs. (JAX) – $9,500
It’s a home game where Ben Roethlisberger usually plays well, but the Jaguars rank 1st in DVOA against the pass, likely limiting Roethlisberger and the passing offense. Additionally, the Jaguars rank 32nd in DVOA against the run, creating a perfect scenario for Le’Veon Bell. Even with the potential struggles of the Steelers passing offense, they’re still the biggest favorite on the slate with a team total of 25.5 points. Everything lines up for Bell to explode in this matchup, and I’ll gladly take his floor in cash games for $9,500.
3x stat line: 22 carries, 110 rushing yards, 5 catches, 35 yards, 1 total touchdown = 28.5 DK Points
RB – Todd Gurley vs. (SEA) – $8,000
When targeting running backs, I always want volume. Gurley is on pace for 424 touches this season including 80 receptions. On a full PPR site, the receiving volume is especially important. The Rams are very slight home favorites, but Gurley’s involvement in the passing game allows him to still see touches if the Rams fall behind. While most believe the Seahawks defense shouldn’t be picked on, they actually rank just 30th in DVOA against the run through the first four weeks. I have no problem plugging in Gurley and his volume against an overrated run defense.
3x stat line: 21 carries, 98 rushing yards, 4 catches, 42 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 24.0 DK Points
WR – Dez Bryant vs. (GB) – $6,500
After his tough schedule to start, I fully expected to see Bryant’s price much higher. I was prepared to pay up to $7,500 for him in this matchup, but will gladly take the discount. Bryant has seen 40 targets through four weeks and ranks 3rd in red zone targets. He’s in a breakout spot, and is locked into my cash game lineup.
3x stat line: 6 catches, 75 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown = 19.5 DK Points
WR – Jordy Nelson at (DAL) – $8,100
I would love to find a way to play Aaron Rodgers, but I don’t have the salary to pay up at the quarterback position. Instead, I’ll select his top receiver. Nelson averages almost 21 DK points per game if you exclude the game he left early due to injury. Davante Adams (concussion) actually leads the Packers in red zone targets this season, but if he’s unable to suite up, more red zone looks will be forced to Nelson who already has five scores this season. I expect the Cowboys and Packers to be involved in a high-scoring affair, so I want players on both sides of the ball.
3x stat line: 5 catches, 103 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 24.3 DK Points
WR – Aldrick Robinson at (IND) – $3,100
Marqise Goodwin has been limited in practice due to a concussion, and multiple reliable fantasy sites and injury experts believe he’s unlikely to suite up. While nothing is definitive, if Goodwin were to miss this game, Robinson would be a lock at his price. Robinson saw 12 targets last week, and should see 6-8 targets if he draws the start this week. Any time I can get high volume for a price near the minimum, I’ll take it so I can pay up for high-volume running backs.
3x stat line: 4 catches, 53 receiving yards = 9.3 DK Points
TE – Austin Seferian-Jenkins at (CLE) – $3,500
Seferian-Jenkins faces the Browns who rank 27th in DVOA against tight ends. The Browns have made Tyler Kroft, Jesse James, and 36-year-old Ben Watson look amazing this season. Seferian-Jenkins is significantly more talented than those three. For just $3,500, Seferian-Jenkins is a near lock at the tight end position.
3x stat line: 5 catches, 55 receiving yards = 10.5 DK Points
TE – Evan Engram vs. (LAC) – $4,000
Engram has 30 targets this year, including 11 last week against the Buccaneers. He’s becoming more involved in the offense, and the Giants have somewhat abandoned the run game, letting Eli Manning throw 47+ times in each of the past two weeks. I like Engram’s floor, especially at a price of $4,000. He doesn’t need much to pay off his salary, and if he gets in the end zone, he has upside for tournaments as well.
3x stat line: 6 catches, 60 receiving yards = 12.00 DK Points
D/ST – Ask me on Twitter @fantasybeast15 for my favorite defensive plays this week!