Each week, I’ll post my cash game picks for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted earlier in the week, some picks may change slightly by Sunday. Follow me on Twitter @fantasybeast15 for updates!
In cash games, you should always look for each player to reach at least 3x value.
DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value
Example: If Carson Wentz has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, Wentz would reach 3x value based on the formula below.
15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value
I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup.
Week 5 Lineup Review
Week 5 was a frustrating week. I’m a player who likes to target volume, but I overlooked an easy swap in cash games. I had Jordy Nelson and T.Y. Hilton projected similarly for targets, but they weren’t priced similarly. Had I gone from Jordy Nelson ($8,100) to T.Y. Hilton ($6,000), I could have gained more volume swapping from Evan Engram ($4,000) to Melvin Gordon ($6,000). This would have given the lineup more volume and would have created a winning lineup. I don’t like hindsight analysis, but this was simply a volume oversight that I should have found while building lineups. My cash game lineup did not cash in any 50/50s I entered, and won fewer than 20% of my head to head matchups. Hopefully week 6 will be better!
NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 6
QB – Kirk Cousins vs. (SF) – $6,800
While everyone will be chasing Deshaun Watson, I will be on Kirk Cousins for just $100 more. Cousins is coming off of a bye and will face a 49ers team who ranks 26th against the pass (all rankings are from Football Outsiders DVOA). The 49ers have a horrible group of cornerbacks, giving plus matchups to all of Cousins’ receivers. Rob Kelley is unlikely to play, leaving Samaje Perine and pass-catching running back Chris Thompson in the backfield. Perine has been ineffective to start the year and has fumbling concerns. I expect Washington, who has a team total of 28.75 points, to lean heavily on the pass, leading to a fantastic day for Cousins and the Washington receivers.
3x stat line: 275 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 14 rushing yards = 20.4 DK Points
RB – Mark Ingram vs. (DET) – $4,400
Ingram was interesting before the news that Adrian Peterson was on his way to Arizona. With Peterson gone, I expect Ingram to see roughly 3-5 more touches per week which is significant, especially at $4,400. The Saints are 4.5 point home favorites and have a team total of 27.25 points. While the scoring could definitely come from the arm of Drew Brees, Ingram has 15 receptions and 22 targets in just four weeks. Ingram has double-digit fantasy points in every game this season, without scoring a touchdown. This creates a very solid floor with upside if he gets into the end zone.
3x stat line: 17 carries, 80 rushing yards, 3 catches, 22 yards = 13.2 DK Points
RB – Jerick McKinnon vs. (GB) – $4,100
McKinnon is underpriced since his breakout performance was on Monday night and salaries for week 6 were already released. McKinnon played 67% of the offensive snaps and out-touched Latavius Murray 22-14 while recording six receptions. The Packers struggle against receiving running backs, ranking just 25th to receivers out of the backfield. I’d consider McKinnon for $1,000 more, so I’ll gladly take the discount and use him in my cash game lineup.
3x stat line: 14 carries, 50 rushing yards, 4 catches, 33 receiving yards = 12.3 DK Points
RB – Kareem Hunt vs. (PIT) – $8,200
Hunt will face the Steelers at home in a game where the Chiefs are favored. He has over 100 rushing yards in four of five games this season, and averages 28.1 DK points per game. The Steelers rank 3rd against the pass, but 15th against the run. If Travis Kelce plays in this game, he’ll take some defensive attention off of Hunt. If Kelce is out, Hunt may see a few extra touches. Either way, Hunt is a solid value at $8,200.
3x stat line: 19 carries, 105 rushing yards, 3 receptions 21 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 24.6 DK Points
WR – DeAndre Hopkins vs. (CLE) – $8,100
Hopkins faces the Browns defense that ranks 3rd against the run but 31st against the pass. Additionally, they rank 32nd in the league against WR1s. Hopkins averages 12.2 targets, 7.0 receptions, and 1.0 touchdowns per game this season. I love the matchup and the volume for Hopkins and while I’m not using Watson in my cash game lineup, Hopkins is a natural hedge in case Watson goes off.
3x stat line: 9 catches, 93 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 24.3 DK Points
WR – Davante Adams at (MIN) – $5,700
Assuming Jordy Nelson plays, it looks like Xavier Rhodes will shadow him. This leaves Davante Adams to run the majority of his routes against Trae Waynes, giving Adams a positive matchup. I’m expecting Adams to be the focal point of the Packers passing game this week, and for $5,700, he doesn’t need much to return cash game value, especially if he gets in the end zone. Adams ranks second in the NFL in red-zone targets and leads the NFL in red-zone receptions.
3x stat line: 5 catches, 61 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 17.1 DK Points
WR – Adam Thielen vs. (GB) – $6,000
With Stefon Diggs out, I love the spot for Thielen against the Packers. The Vikings lost 7.2 targets per game with Diggs out of the picture, and I’m expecting Thielen to see at least some of those targets. Thielen averages 8 targets per game and hasn’t been below 6 targets this season with Diggs in the lineup. Without Diggs, it’s reasonable to think Thielen receives 10 targets in this game and the Packers rank just 19th against the pass. With a plus matchup, those ten targets provide great value for $6,000.
3x stat line: 6 catches, 60 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 18.0 DK Points
TE – Zach Miller at (BAL) – $2,900
Miller saw seven targets in Mitchell Trubisky’s first NFL start. The Ravens defense is a strong unit, ranking 2nd against the pass, but they rank 32nd against tight ends. At $2,900, if Miller scores he almost reaches value, and if he doesn’t score, he can reach value with just a few receptions. On a week where I’m not excited to roster many tight ends, it makes sense to pay down for Miller.
3x stat line: 4 catches, 47 receiving yards = 8.7 DK Points