Each week, I’ll post my cash game picks for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted earlier in the week, some picks may change slightly by Sunday. Follow me on Twitter @fantasybeast15 for updates!
In cash games, you should always look for each player to reach at least 3x value.
DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value
Example: If Carson Wentz has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, Wentz would reach 3x value based on the formula below.
15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value
I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup.
Week 7 Lineup Review
Week 7 was full of injury news that led me to change my lineups right up until lock. When Leonard Fournette was ruled out, I thought Chris Ivory was a lock. Even when T.J. Yeldon was active, I thought Ivory would contend for 20 touches and see 3-4 targets. Ivory disappointed after seeing ten targets in week 6, he saw zero targets in week 7. Next, Browns top corner Jason McCourty was also ruled out, leaving a better overall matchup for Eric Decker. I decided to move from Thielen to Decker so I could get from Ingram to Le’Veon Bell. Decker failed in a big way, recording zero catches on two targets. I also ended up on the wrong side of some same-price swaps, which decided many of my cash games. I chose Brett Hundley over Tyrod Taylor, Demaryius Thomas over Pierre Garcon, and Le’Veon Bell over Ezekiel Elliott. These three decisions left me to basically break even, rather than dominating my cash games. I won roughly 60% of my head-to-head matchups, but didn’t cash in any of the double-ups I entered. Let’s hope you made better pivots than me last week!
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NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 8
QB – Andy Dalton vs. (IND) – $5,700
Dalton faces a Colts team that ranks 30th against the pass (all defensive rankings refer to Football Outsiders DVOA). The Bengals are favored by 11 at home and have an implied team total of 26.5 points. At just $5,700, Dalton doesn’t need much to pay off his salary, and the 300 yard passing bonus seems more likely than not. The Colts defense has given up at least 295 passing yards in six of their seven games this season. The only concern is the Bengals jump out to a big lead, and are able to run the ball to kill the clock in the second half.
3x stat line: 225 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing yard = 17.1 DK Points
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RB – LeSean McCoy vs. (OAK) – $8,700
McCoy is a volume monster on an offense with no real receiving threats. He’s averages 6.5 targets per game to go along with 18.33 carries per game. He finally scored last week after avoiding the end zone in the first five weeks of the season. I’m not thrilled with the price increase, but I’m always looking for volume with my running backs. My choice for top RB is between Ezekiel Elliott and McCoy, and McCoy has a better matchup than Elliott, and sees more work in the passing game. For $500 less, I’ll take McCoy as my top running back in cash games this week.
3x stat line: 19 carries, 105 rushing yards, 3 catches, 36 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 26.1 DK Points
RB – Joe Mixon vs. (IND) – $4,700
Mixon is interesting this week since the Bengals are 11 point favorites and will play at home. My concern with Dalton is the Bengals get out to a big lead and run the ball in the second half, so for $4,700, I can lock up the running back volume in this game as well. Earlier this week, Mixon made comments comments about his lack of touches, and while it’s certainly possible the Bengals give him a few more carries as a result, it’s also possible they turn to Jeremy Hill as the workhorse to put Mixon in his place. This makes Mixon a fairly risky play, but a fantastic value if he sees 15-18 carries.
3x stat line: 13 carries, 66 rushing yards, 4 catches, 35 receiving yards = 14.1 DK Points
RB – Mark Ingram vs. (CHI) – $7,400
Ingram is another running back who’s price has risen, but I still like his value at $7,400. He’s recorded 22+ carries in each of the games since Adrian Peterson’s departure, and continues to see work in the passing game with an average of four catches per game. The Saints are heavy favorites at home, which should create a solid game script for Ingram. Ingram also ranks in the top ten in the NFL in both carries inside the ten yard line and carries inside the five yard line, giving him plenty of opportunities to score.
3x stat line: 17 carries, 93 rushing yards, 3 catches, 39 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 22.2 DK Points
WR – A.J. Green vs. (IND) – $8,600
Green has bankable volume as the Bengals top receiver averaging 9.5 targets per game and ranking 6th in the NFL in air yards (airyards.com). The Colts defense has been destroyed by the deep ball, something Green can certainly take advantage of. Ranking 30th against the pass, the Colts defense has yielded 34+ PPR points to opposing wide receivers in six of seven games this season, with the anomaly coming against the Cleveland “receivers.” Green is locked in as the top option on the main slate, and while he’s expensive, he’s a scary fade.
3x stat line: 6 catches, 108 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown = 25.8 DK Points
WR – DeSean Jackson vs. (CAR) – $5,100
Jackson is simply underpriced for his talent and situation. He’s only $5,100 and has yet to hit his ceiling. He’s seen 7.33 targets per game, but has only caught half his targets. Jackson ranks 2nd in the NFL in air yards, only behind Antonio Brown. He also ranks first in aDot (average depth of target) by 3.6 yards per target among players who have at least 40 targets on the season (airyards.com). Jackson’s overall volume isn’t showing up in his fantasy production, and I’ll gladly play him at his depressed price.
3x stat line: 6 catches, 93 receiving yards = 15.3 DK Points
WR – Josh Doctson vs. (DAL) – $3,900
Doctson took over for Terrelle Proyor last week as Pryor played just one first-half snap. Even if Doctson starts, he carries some risk with the way Kirk Cousins spreads the ball around. Last week, Doctson played 84% of the offensive snaps (Football Outsiders), and still recorded just five targets. The good news is four of his 14 targets this season have been in the red zone, showing Washington trusts him when they need to score. There aren’t many cheap options on DraftKings this week, and Doctson provides plenty of upside for just $3,900.
3x stat line: 4 catches, 77 receiving yards = 11.7 DK Points
TE – Jack Doyle at (CIN) – $3,500
The Bengals defense will be popular this week and look great against the tight end at first glance giving up just 8.5 PPR points per game to the position. After looking deeper, the Bengals rank just 20th in DVOA against the tight end and have faced none of the league’s top tight ends. Doyle ranks 7th in the NFL in targets to the tight end and 5th in tight end receptions. His upside is limited, but playing Doyle offers a solid floor and allows you to pay up a other positions. I’m not worried about the matchup and feel comfortable playing Doyle in my cash games.
3x stat line: 5 catches, 55 receiving yards = 10.5 DK Points
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