NFL DFS DraftKings Value Plays – Week 5 (10/9/16)

Finding value for Week 5 proved to be a little more challenging than previous weeks with very few key injuries opening up the opportunity for low-priced players. So instead we find value in some players who either haven’t had their price updated to match their recent production yet, players who haven’t been performing well lately or players returning from injury or bye weeks whose price is below what it should be. So with that on to the Week 5 DraftKings value plays.

NFL DFS DraftKings Value Plays for Week 5

Quarterbacks

Eli Manning (NYG) @ GB $6,000

Manning has only thrown a total of one touchdown pass over his last three games but will look to bounce back against the Packers’ defense on Sunday night. The Packers have allowed an average of 330 yards and 2 TD passes per game so far this season and might be without top corner Sam Shields again. Manning has had his price drop to a season-low $6,000 making him a good value this week.

Brian Hoyer (CHI) @ IND $5,500

Hoyer makes the value list for the second straight week after he produced his second 300-yard game with two touchdown passes last week. He will go for three in a row in Week 5 as a small road underdog against the Colts in a game with one of the highest Vegas point totals of the week. Hoyer should be playing catchup against the Colts which should lead to a lot of garbage time fantasy production to allow him to outperform his salary again this week.

Running Backs

Devonta Freeman (ATL) @ DEN $5.000

Freeman is a high risk/reward option this week that might be best used in GPP lineups only. He could see an increase in touches this week if Tevin Coleman is limited due to a genetic blood disorder that could impact his health playing in the high altitude in Denver this week. Also, while the Broncos have a very good defense they are more vulnerable to the run than pass which could result in the Falcons feeding the running game and Freeman this week.

Jerick McKinnon (MIN) vs HOU $4,000 (DailyFantasyNerd Value Play of the Day)

McKinnon has assumed the lead role in the Vikings backfield over Matt Asiata since Adrian Peterson was lost due to injury averaging 17 carries and two receptions over the last two games. He should continue to get similar volume this week at home with the Vikings as a near touchdown favorite against the Texans. The Texans’ defense has allowed an average of 100 rushing yards and over one touchdown per game to opposing RB this season.

Wide Receivers

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Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) @ PIT $4,600

The Jets are expected to be without Eric Decker again this week which opens the door for an increase in opportunity for Enunwa who has already averaged eight targets per game this season. The game script for this week with the Jets’ offense trying to keep up with the Steelers who have allowed the 10th most receiving yards to opposing WR this season.

Eddie Royal (CHI) @ IND $4,200

Royal had his best game of the season last week with seven catches for 111 yards and a score which would make him an obvious regression candidate to avoid this week but with Kevin White heading to the IR, Royal now moves up in the pecking order making him a solid play again this week against the Colts.

 

 

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz (PHI) @ DET $3,500

Ertz is expected to return this week after missing the last two games. He returns at an opportune time with the Eagles facing one of the worst defense in the NFL at defending the tight end, the Lions, who have given up 20 receptions for 204 yards and five touchdowns through four games this season. Ertz only needs five receptions for 55 yards to triple his $3,500 salary.

Cameron Brate (TB) @ CAR $2,900

Brate has averaged nine targets over the last two games since the Bucs cut ties with Austin Seferian-Jenkins and leads the Bucs in red zone targets this season with six. This week Brate faces a Panthers defense that has given up four touchdowns over the first four games to opposing TE.

Defense

Eagles (PHI) @ DET $2,900

The Eagles defense has averaged over three sacks and two turnovers per game so far this season while only allowing nine points per game. They will face a Lions offense that has been sacked an average of 2.5 times per game while giving up one turnover per contest. With the Lions attempting 39 passes a game there should be plenty of opportunity for sacks and interceptions for the underpriced Eagles defense.

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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