Time for the divisional round. Hopefully you and your S/O find the right combo this week to hit the million bucks!
For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it.
As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.
All lines are current as of Thursday Morning:
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7). Over/Under 44.
Probable Outcome:
- The Vikes are once again a touchdown dog on the road. Can they do it again? Anything is possible but the market would project this one to be a lower scoring affair than what they say last week in the Superdome.
- MIN Side: The Saints have a good defense, the 49ers have an ELITE defense. They are particularly stout against the run and TE coverage. Minnesota should be expected to have to get aggressive in the 2nd half to try and win which means more passing. I don’t think this is a spot to go heavy but Adam Thielen is my preferred play out of the slot.
- SF Side: Minnesota is a good defense but San Fran should be able to dictate the flow of this game so it makes more sense to load up on this side. The 49ers Defense is the obvious choice here and I don’t mind pairing up with Raheem Mostert as he has surged lately. I like the passing catching options as one offs as well but will address in more detail below.
Alternative Outcome:
- Can the Vikes win? Or at least open up the scoring so this presents more options for us? Not likely but with only 4 games to choose from, you have to look at some thinner plays.
- MIN Side: Dalvin Cook has the toughest matchup but he will be involved in the passing game as well as running the ball. If the O-line can open up some lanes for him, I am willing to bet on his talent over this matchup.
- SF Side: I have a little interest in stacking this game using Jimmy Garoppolo, will have to wait and see what I think of the rest of the QB’s but I absolutely love Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders regardless if I pair them with the QB. George Kittle is in the same boat as Cook, tough matchup but he is the superior talent.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5). Over/Under 46.5.
Probable Outcome:
- Tough spot for the Titans in my opinion as they are exit a matchup against an aging dynasty and now go back on the road to face one of the most electric young QB’s in the game.
- TEN Side: I don’t want to overthink this spot. It’s going to be tough but Tennessee will go down trying to get the ball into their best players’ hands. Those players are Derrick Henry and J. Brown. I wouldn’t pair them in the same lineup but they make sense as one-offs.
Alternative Outcome:
- I don’t see Tennessee being able to pull this off. The question is whether is produces points or is a defensive battle between the two teams.
- TEN Side: I can’t recommend other skill position players; they have burned us too much. If anything, I will avoid the studs for Tennessee and assume Baltimore handles them in this spot.
- BAL Side: The Baltimore Defense might be overlooked this week thanks to the over/under total but they have a better than most shot of putting up some points via a defensive score. We never HAVE to pair Lamar Jackson with anyone BUT Tennessee is one of the worst against TE’s so Mark Andrews will likely be a chalky play this week.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5). Over/Under 51.
Probable Outcome:
- These teams played back in October at Arrowhead and many people will discount the Texans 31-24 victory. I’m not predicting the upset, but I do think this tells us the obvious that this is a good bet to hit the over of 50 points. This is the most stackable game of the week.
- HOU Side: As with their first meeting, the best way to stop the Chiefs is by running up the middle. It’s never sexy but Carlos Hyde looks like a priority play. Creeping down for more value, the Chiefs are soft against TE’s so we can look Darren Fells way again.
Alternative Outcome:
- I’m not getting cute in this spot and fading this game. However, there will be plenty of spots to gain leverage on the field as we can’t play all these guys.
- HOU Side: Monitor the injury status of Will Fuller as his presence/absence will be one of the major stories this week. Regardless of him, Deshaun Watson and Deandre Hopkins will probably be under owned compared to Mahomes to Tyreek/Kelce.
- KC Side: I might sprinkle in a bit of Hardman or Watkins but my main pivot will be the Chiefs Defense. Even if this turns into a high scoring affair, Texans are prone to giving up sacks which increase the likelihood of a defensive score. Plus, the Chiefs are a different defense at home.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-4.5). Over/Under 47.
Probable Outcome:
- The only Vegas projected close game of the week. I’m sure a lot of people are picking the Seahawks to surprise on the road. Either way, this matchup presents a couple of the softer defenses (relatively speaking) on the slate.
- SEA Side: Green Bay is best attacked on the ground but it’s difficult to get pumped about the Lynch/Homer timeshare. So I will play this one with Russell Wilson having to do it all in order to win on the road. My favorite piece to pair him with will be Jacob Hollister.
- GB Side: Seattle can be beaten in whatever way the Packers choose. If we go with the Vegas side, the safest approach will be on the legs of Aaron Jones.
Alternative Outcome:
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- This is the most likely upset of the week and as it’s the last game on the slate, it will be the most vital to figuring out. Let’s look at it another way:
- SEA Side: I will probably take a stand against the running backs but pairing Russ up with another weapon is a fine place to go. Don’t know which one is my preference but D.K. Metcalf has come on strong lately.
- GB Side: Another sneaky spot for the Packers Defense as Russ is prone to trying to create and taking sacks in the process. If we focus on the air game of the Packers, it’s pretty straightforward who to target Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams might be a low owned stacking spot this week.
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