We are past the halfway point in the NFL season. Sometimes it feels like it goes by way too fast. Week 10 has the most teams on bye but there were still plenty of juicy matchups to consider. I picked my favorite 3 of the week.
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All lines are current as of Thursday Morning
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13) Over/Under 51.
Probable Outcome:
- When these teams get together, we usually expect some fireworks. I think a key to success in week 10 will be hitting this game. The Saints SHOULD score and win, BUT will the Falcons keep up and make this a track meet or roll over on their already dead season. Coming off the bye, I think I am leaning Falcons put up a decent fight (at least score 21+ points).
- ATL Side: Falcons should be down, like every game, and should lean to the air attack, like every game. In fact, Saints are elite against the run so this looks promising. New Orleans is only good at shutting down the #1 so my favorite stack will be Matt Ryan to Calvin Ridley. For the Saints, they are the type of team that keeps the engine throttled until late in the 4th
Alternative Outcome:
- I severely narrowed my target range above, some people will include Julio, Hooper, Kamara, etc. and that’s fine but we can’t play all these guys as they are priced as the elite players they are. For my alternative outcome, I will tread lightly as the Falcons might not put up a fight.
- ATL Side: If the Falcons don’t score 21+ points, it’s going to be very difficult for their players to return value. Calvin Ridley will still be a nice one off piece but I will limit my exposure to him.
- NO Side: Like I said above, the Saints game plan won’t change. I will be very interested in Alvin Kamara if he gets full run. Another interesting stack option with him is the Saints D.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at Tennessee Titans. Over/Under 48.
If Mahomes Plays Outcome:
- Going to run this scenario again since its probable (but not guaranteed) Mahomes will suit up. The game script and outcome of this game highly hinges on if Pat guts it out. With him, they will be reasonably favored and should be able to exploit this defense.
- KC Side: Tennessee is slightly above average on defense but nothing to shy away from. If Mahomes is back, we know they will continue to score into the 4th quarter regardless of score. Titans have been extremely vulnerable through the air so Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Travis Kelce. All deserve to be in the player pool. I will shy away from the running game if Mahomes plays as people will rush to play Williams but I don’t think his workload is guaranteed.
- TEN Side: Tennessee is showing a little more life with Tannehill under center. The best way to beat the Chiefs is on the ground but Henry is the definition of game script dependent and if the Titans get down early, it spells trouble for his workload. My favorite target will be Jonnu Smith.
If Moore Plays Outcome:
- This game will be a coin flip with Matt Moore under center. Still some potential plays based upon matchup and script but still want to tread lightly.
- KC Side: The Chiefs will be much more likely to lean on the ground game where Damien Williams showed up last week. I still don’t trust him but think he is more viable if Matt Moore is under center. The only piece of the air game I will look at will be Travis Kelce.
- TEN Side: Since this game script will play much closer, Derrick Henry shoots up on my priority list if he gets to play in a game that projects to be close throughout. Pairing him with the Titans D makes for a sneaky stack spot.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5.5) Over/Under 47.
Probable Outcome:
- NFL moved this to the marquee afternoon game of the week and this game will probably help decide a playoff spot in the NFC. Packers are a home favorite which makes sense but let’s dive into the matchups to see what plays make sense.
- CAR Side: Pretty simple, they have the best RB and Green Bay is super soft against the run. If you can afford him, Christian McCaffrey should be locked and loaded in this matchup and he will get touches regardless of score. While the Packers are stingy against the pass, I am only worried about their #1 CB. While it’s likely the Panthers will scheme Moore and Samuels away from him, it’s more likely Curtis Samuel avoids the coverage.
- GB Side: Panthers have the same defensive formula, make them struggle through the air but soft on the ground. Aaron Jones projects to be in a good spot with the lead throughout the game. With both teams leaning heavily on their running back studs, this might be a quicker than average game.
Contrarian View:
- Vegas does think points will be scored here, if that’s the case then there are some other offensive pieces that deserve discussion.
- CAR Side: Tight end has been Packers most vulnerable position so if the Panthers need to air it out, Greg Olsen makes sense as a pivot play.
- GB side: These are the type of games we have seen Aaron Rodgers SMASH in the past, so don’t discount him. I would also monitor the news on James Bradberry as he is nursing an injury. If he is less than 100% or ruled out, I am moving Davante Adams up to an elite play. Another interesting pivot would be the Packers D, if they can get a lead, Kyle Allen can’t be a game manager and we saw him implode against San Francisco two weeks ago.
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