In Week 12, I think one game and how you play it, is going to make or break the week. It is the only one I wanted to write up but I owe it to the readers to give a little more so we are tackling 3 games, with the best being saved for last.
For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it.
As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.
All lines are current as of Wednesday Evening
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-10.5). Over/Under 44.5.
Probable Outcome:
- Scary line as the Dolphins have been playing decent ball the past month and now they face the Browns who will be missing a few players due to suspension. Sneaky spot to capitalize as this game could score more than projected.
- MIA Side: Can throw the Browns DVOA stats out the window since they are missing half the D-Line which will benefit the run and passing game. This might be a spot for Ryan Fitzpatrick to Mike Gisecki as I still project the Dolphins to play from behind.
- CLE Side: Stack em up however you want. The most popular play will be Nick Chubb with a lead which I don’t mind but also think this is the get right spot for the passing game. Baker Mayfield to Odell Beckham or Jarvis Landry makes a ton of sense.
Alternative Outcome:
- I am liking this game perhaps more than I should. Just have a good feeling about the Dolphins being able to put up points in this spot. Let’s look at some alternative plays as this game has sneaky game stack potential.
- MIA Side: We know by now Kalen Ballage is a plug your nose play but he is getting all the carries. It’s not pretty but he will be involved in the game plan if Miami moves the ball. Also like the pass catchers and the Dolphins apparently like Allen Hurns after handing him an extension.
- CLE Side: Monitor the injury status of David Njoku because he could immediately slide into a TE1 role. A lower owned GPP play is Kareem Hunt. He is being used as a slot guy and is seeing a healthy amount of touches. If this game shoots out, he could be dangerous.
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5). Over/Under 48.
Probable Outcome:
- One of the NFL games of the week and a matchup against two defenses in which you know how to attack them. This leads to some easy cash/chalk targets and interesting GPP Pivots.
- PHI Side: Seattle is average at best across the board, so no special considerations. Play the best plays. For me, I like the air game with Carson Wentz to Zach Ertz making the most sense. Will monitor injury situation as if RB’s are out, it narrows the workload.
Alternative Outcome:
- I do not anticipate fading this game as I think it has potential to hit 50 points or get very close. So let’s examine some other play options if you agree in the potential shootout.
- SEA Side: I do not think its profitable to play RB’s against his stout line, so I won’t force a play here. The Eagles are also good against TE’s but if I am taking a chance, Jacob Hollister has really come on last few weeks and should be a vital part of the game plan.
- PHI Side: Need to monitor the injury status of the WR’s as the #2 wideout’s have fared well against Seattle. For now, the #2 pass catcher is Dallas Goedert and could be overlooked in this spot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) Over/Under 51.5.
Probable Outcome:
- For the grand finale, I present the Bucs at Falcons. Most people will see the highest total on the week and season knowledge is both teams have a horrid defense BUT I plan to tread lighter than normal on the Bucs side as the Falcons have really turned it on defensively the last 2 weeks and we must decide if this is a fluke or new trend.
- TB Side: I will cover the best TB plays below but like I said, I think this is a spot for inflated ownership and an opportunity to zig when everyone else zags. These types of stances are key to winning GPPs. FADE for me.
- ATL Side: Falcons play the ultimate pass funnel defense so let’s not evaluate the mess that’s the Falcons RB situation. Through the air, I don’t see the Bucs being able to stop them and they have a pretty straight forward target distribution. Play with confidence Matt Ryan to Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley. I also anticipate being overweight on Falcons D.
Contrarian View:
- I will probably play 80% of my GPP’s as a fade of the Bucs with 20% exposure just to cover myself in this spot.
- TB Side: If we look at season long stats for Atlanta then we know we can attack from any angle. The backfield is still a mess so I will lean pass catchers and the best are obviously Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. A lower owned pivot would be Cameron Brate.
- ATL Side: Only thing I will add to this side is their #3 WR who operates over the middle and replaced some of the targets from the Hooper injury. Russell Gage offers some price savings.
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