NFL DFS: Game Scripts for Week 3

Some injuries in week 2 led to the script being flipped. That’s why we write about contrarian views because we know anything can happen during an NFL game. The takeaway is if you have a strong take on a game, go with it! There are multiple ways a game can play out. For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it.

For Week 3, I am writing about four games that aren’t necessarily projected to be the highest, but they offer intriguing plays. Plus, it would get boring writing about the Chiefs and Ravens every week. You get it by now, play as many of those guys as you can afford and hope you hit the optimal combination.

As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.

All lines are current as of Wednesday evening.

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5). Over/Under 47

Probable Outcome:

• The first game I wanted to address is one I think Vegas has wrong. Indianapolis has fought so far this season but I don’t think they should be favored in this spot. The line has already moved a point towards the Falcons in the last 24 hours. I wanted to script this because a lot of GPP players simply look at the lines and O/U to determine their player pool. I think this is going to be a spot where I disagree with Vegas and lean Falcons.

• ATL Side: While I respect the Colts defense, this game is still in a dome and the Falcons perform much better offensively whenever they play in ideal conditions. It’s still early in the season but the Colts have been getting GASHED by running backs, ranking 30^th in Run D DVOA. Add the fact Dairus Leonard is currently questionable and this sets up perfectly for my narrative with the Falcons leading. I think this is a get right spot for Devonta Freeman. He is my favorite play as the Falcons get an early lead and run the ball down the Colts throat.

• IND Side: Early into the season, it appears the Falcons are also softest against the run, but nothing about their pass D scares me enough to get me off a few good plays. On the running side, Marlon Mack has had one big game and one disappointment. The positive for me is the volume has been there and he is active in the passing game to boost his floor. On the passing side, T.Y. Hilton has notorious home/road splits. He has performed well thus far with Brissett as his passer, I think this is a potential spot for one of his patented huge games.

Contrarian View:

• Most likely: Vegas sees something I simply do not. While I think the probability of Atlanta coming away with a road victory, I will play some angles with the Colts winning. Fortunately, it doesn’t alter my plan too much, only brings in a few additional plays. 

• ATL Side: If the Falcons find themselves down, the passing game comes into play as they throw to catch up. I am still on Freeman as he is an active pass catcher, but I will be looking at some interesting stacks involving a combination Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Austin Hooper. The Colts were brutal against TE’s last year so if I had a lean, it would be the value of Hooper who we know is prone to a few big games. Colts secondary has been really impressive this year but Julio can beat anyone. 

• IND Side: Nothing changes for me in this scenario for the Colts. They have two pretty good tight ends that eat into each other’s production so it’s easy to stay away. The playmakers for this team are Mack and Hilton. The rest of the pass catchers get too little attention to merit consideration. 

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-6) Over/Under 45.5

 

 

 

 

Probable Outcome:

• Another line worth monitoring, especially the over/under of 47 as the Eagles are extremely banged up and the Lions like to slow the game down as much as possible. While these factors concern me from a game stacking perspective, I think there are pretty decent plays on both sides of this game.

• DET Side: Philadelphia has been the definition of a “funnel defense” meaning they are really good at one aspect of defense and very poor in another. In this case, they are stout against the run but susceptible to big plays through the air. This sets up perfectly for the script that the Lions should be down for most of the game. They should be able to score some points through the combination of Matthew Stafford and Kenny Golladay. For deeper GPP’s I am also interested in Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson.

• PHI Side: We know the drill with the Eagles, they spread the ball around which makes it difficult to accurately predict. The running game is healthy and a three way share of the ball is off limits for me. However, injuries to the pass catchers open up value. It sounds like Jackson and Alshon will both miss the game which should funnel targets to Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor. Those will be my primary targets but I will continue to monitor the injury situation to see if additional value opens up.

Contrarian View:

• As alluded above, the rash of Eagles injuries cause me concern about the point total, but they are also banged up on the defensive side of the ball which opens up some possibilities for stacking this game a bit. 

• DET Side: Nothing changes for me from the above comments but it’s worth noting that Kerryon Johnson should see an increased workload with CJ Anderson being let go. He also catches the ball which raises his floor. He is a decent GPP dart throw if we think the Eagles won’t be able to remain a stout run D. 

• PHI Side: If things open up in this game, you can also look at J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Mack Hollins as deeper plays. Keep in mind, Darius Slay may shadow somebody here so if we get word on who he is going to be covering, I will go to the other pass catchers. 

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5). Over/Under 48

Probable Outcome:

• The Giants are turning the franchise over to Danny Dimes. Even if he is erratic, I think his athleticism is the shot in the arm this offense needs. I think this game plays closer than the project spread and is a good bet to hit the over which makes this a sneaky spot to get some players.

• NYG Side: Daniel Jones is dirt cheap and I will keep an eye on him as a potential GPP play depending on what other value opens up at other positions. However, my favorite plays will be the skill positions players who should get a boost from a new QB. Saquon Barkley is game script independent but I think this is going to be a back and forth game and Saquon can get it either on the ground or through the air. The other pass catcher that has my attention is Evan Engram as rookie QB’s tend to focus on the security blankets of slot WR’s and TE’s. Greg Olson feasted on this defense last week and Engram is a taaaaad more athletic at this stage.

• TB Side: While the Giants offense should get a boost, the defense will remain stagnant. They have been abysmal against the run and almost as bad against the pass. I am not one to bet on the Bucs RB’s so that leaves an easy stack spot for the passing unit. Jameis Winston will be on my short list of QB’s and a pairing of either/or Chris Godwin or Mike Evans makes perfect sense. This is also a get right spot for OJ Howard and I will probably sprinkle him around in a few spots.

Contrarian View:

• The Bucs defense has been a pleasant surprise in the early part of the 2019 season. They were swiss cheese last year and I believe most players still believe this to be the case. To play off those biases, I will make some tournament teams fading more of the NYG side. 

• NYG Side: As I said above, Saquon is basically game script independent and I feel pretty comfortable in him getting there regardless of how Daniel Jones performs. However, this is the same Bucs defense that just bottled up CMC so they might have a blueprint in place for stopping these all-purpose backs. There are plenty of expensive backs in good spots so I will have plenty of builds avoiding Saquon. 

• TB Side: If we are banking on an improved defense, why not play the Bucs D in a home spot against a rookie QB? A lot can go wrong in this spot for Jones and this is a good reminder we don’t always need the defense who will shut the opponent out. We prefer defenses who will get plenty of opportunities to make big plays and this team checks those boxes. A home favorite playing against a rookie QB is an ideal setup.

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Cleveland Browns. Over/Under 49

Probable Outcome:

• Sunday Night Football brings us one of the higher point totals of the week. The game also gives us plenty of options and things to consider if we are playing the TNF-MNF game. This will probably be the “hammer” spot for the prime time games as TNF and MNF look to be pretty low scoring.

• LAR Side: A road favorite in this one. I don’t disagree with the position taken by Vegas. As the Rams have looked like a far superior team than the Browns who lost an opener and then beat a lifeless Jets team. However, the matchups for the Rams worry me because of how much they spread the ball around. Jared Goff struggles on the road which is a downgrade to the air attack. The ground game should be where they find success, however, this timeshare scares me. Todd Gurley’s salary is creeping towards reasonable range but he is best suited for large GPPs only.

• CLE Side: The offense has looked sluggish to begin the season. I place the blame mostly on the offensive line which is honestly not very good. I probably can’t get to Baker until he shows me a bit more consistency but I like his two main cogs, Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr. Chubb has projected some passing catching upside that increases his floor and OBJ is always one play away from taking it to the house. The Ram’s CB’s are notorious for taking chances, if they gamble, it could burn them. OBJ is the ultimate risk/reward play on the slate.

Contrarian View:

• I already have my main strategy as being selective to my exposure for this game so even if it plays lower scoring, it doesn’t alter much of the analysis. The only thing I will add in this portion is you can take a gamble with Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield if you are feeling frisky. The issue with the Rams side is pairing Goff with the right combination of Kupp, Cooks, and/or Woods. I already see plenty of value opening up for the QB’s and WR’s specifically so I don’t personally think I will get there in my builds but wanted to add a pivot way of looking at this game.

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