Week 5 was a frustrating week for me. I wrote up many of the players who ends up destroying the slate (Fuller, Jones, Matty Ice) but I didn’t seem to have the right combination to hit a big one. That was one of the craziest scoring weeks I have seen from a DFS perspective in a long time.
For week 6, I picked a couple of my favorite non-obvious games and then decided to address the “tank game” of Washington at Miami. That might not be a fun one to watch, but could produce viable options from a DFS perspective. For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it.
As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.
All lines are current as of Thursday morning.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-12). Over/Under 48.
Probable Outcome:
I think the Baltimore side will be popular because everyone knows the Bengals are horrid on D. What I don’t think people will realize is Baltimore is ALMOST as bad on defense. This spells a sneaky game stack and I will be making this game a main core of plenty of my roster builds.
- CIN Side: Ravens D is equally bad DVOA against the run and the pass. Since Vegas projects the Ravens as the superior offensive team (and I agree) it is likely the Bengals are down most of the game. This gives a boost to the passing game and I will be looking at Andy Dalton with a stack of either Tyler Boyd or Auden Tate. I think most people will forget about Tate after he was the value of the week last week.
- BAL Side: There is definitely some injury news to monitor for the Ravens but both the air and ground game are in play. Lamar Jackson leads both attacks as he does it with his arm and legs. Mark Ingram usually needs a touchdown to make a big splash so while he is good he is a GPP only play for me. Through the air I will paid Lamar with his favorite targets Marquise Brown or Mark Andrews.
Contrarian View:
- I’ve already planted my flag that this game should be a shootout. I will also play some lineups where I believe Cincinnati keeps it closer than anticipated.
- CIN Side: Besides the players listed above, Joe Mixon and the running game comes into play the more the Bengals keep this game competitive. Additionally, the Ravens have been known to be GASHED by opposing RB’s from time to time.
- BAL Side: Besides those listed, a popular play I assume will be Ravens D. They are a fine unit in cash but I will be looking for my defense elsewhere in GPP’s if they become the chalk.
Washington Redskins (-3) at Miami Dolphins. Over/Under 41.
Probable Outcome:
- I couldn’t resist. When I saw this game I knew I had to write about it on the scripts. This might be the first “tank” game in a Week 6 matchup in NFL history. It will be the butt of many jokes and won’t be all that interesting from viewing perspective. However, somebody has to win this game and it will be a curious battle of how this is accomplished as two horrible offenses square off against two horrible defenses.
- WAS Side: New coach coming into this game so it’s a risky proposition being bold about what you think he is going to do. Coach Callahan has stated he wants to establish the run and the Skins are surprisingly 3 point favorites on the road, so if there is ever a time to fire up Adrian Peterson this might be the spot. Through the air, I don’t think a QB has been named yet and I don’t think it’s worth the risk once they are named because they could be benched in a moment’s notice. Terry McLaurin is the only player who has showed any promise so I won’t hesitate to go to him.
- MIA Side: The only side on defense that is even remotely decent is the Washington run defense which makes me want to err on the side of caution when it comes to Drake or Walton (Ballage should now be third string). With the Dolphins projected to be behind (what’s new) BUT in a close game, I will have some shares of Josh Rosen and Preston Williams as GPP dart throws.
Contrarian View:
- This game is so tough to predict. The Dolphins have embraced the tank and the Redskins might still be operating as they need to win games. Which is probably why Vegas projects them as favorites. I won’t go over alternative plays for each team here but I will emphasize this game could easily be a 10-7 as it could be 21-20 or 28-27 so let’s not assume just because the defenses are bad they can’t stop a bad offense. I will have some shares of the Miami D and Washington D as random GPP’s in the off chance either team shits the bed.
New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5). Over/Under 44.
Probable Outcome:
- Two teams that come in with the reputation of having quality defenses. Which reflects in the predicted total score of 44 points. Jacksonville has been absolutely horrible against the run and (if Ramsey misses) will be very vulnerable in the air as well. The Saints are stout against the run but can be exposed via the air (especially the slot). I like this game to be a sneaky over, lets dive into the plays.
- NO Side: New Orleans was favored on the road until the line took a swing the other way. As discussed above, the best way to attack is on the ground so fire up Alvin Kamara as one of my favorite plays of the week. Kamara is game script independent so play him with confidence regardless of score. I need injury news in order to evaluate the passing game.
- JAX Side: The Jaguars were expected to be down in this one which helps out what they should be able to do best against the Saints, which is throw the ball. I like Gardner Minshew as a GPP value play at quarterback. Most people will look at Chark as a play or a stack as he is clearly the favorite of the young QB. Lattimore played really poorly the first 3 games but resumed showing shutdown capabilities in the last two games and he will be expected to follow Chark. I am going to be cautious with Chark and assume Lattimore can shut him down as well. I like the pivot to Dede Westbrook.
Contrarian View:
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- Injury news could open up more spots on the Saints side and you can gamble on the best talent on the Jaguars side of the ball if you have conviction.
- NO Side: Michael Thomas can beat any coverage. If Jalen Ramsey sits out again, he becomes another potential core play for me. His price increased so you might have to choose between him or Kamara but I like both of them. The other receivers are spread out on targets so I won’t try to guess who gets volume.
- JAX side: You can bet on D.J. Chark if you think Lattimore is going to be inconsistent all year. Don’t think he will make my cut but this isn’t a play/sit article. It’s a guide to how the game will play out so if you view it differently, fire him up! Same thing for Leonard Fournette who is seeing MASSIVE usage on the season. The Saints aren’t an easy matchup but the opportunity will be there. The Jaguars side is a good side to gamble on if you are feeling it.
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