Week 6 didn’t go exactly as planned. The injury to Alvin Kamara really hurt me as I loved his spot prior to the injury that seems worse than they are letting on. Plus, the Miami v. D.C. battle didn’t turn into an offensive explosion, who would have thought? O well, you can’t get them correct every time otherwise I would be on an island printing money.
For week 7, going back to a couple of the higher projected totals sandwiched in between one that should be a blowout but might offer some good options. For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it.
As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.
All lines are current as of Wednesday Evening.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-3). Over/Under 50.
Probable Outcome:
- Two rookie QB’s face off in this Vegas projected high scoring affair. Daniel Jones has really energized the Giants offense and it appears they are getting healthy while Kyler Murray has really shined in the last few games. I like the over in this spot as both teams should be able to move the ball but there is a lot of analysis to be had with people coming back from injury/suspension.
- ARI Side: The Giants are favored, which I am not sure I agree with it but it doesn’t really matter because Arizona is going to play fast no matter what. Giants are soft against the run and pass but the best way to get them is through the air. Kyler Murray is in play and he can be paired with a pass catcher if you like but my preferred choice is David Johnson as he is used as a runner and pass catcher.
Contrarian View:
- My probable outcome addresses the over without a concern for scoreboard, but coming off a bye and favored at home, if the Giants take a big lead, they will do their best to slow this down.
- ARI Side: The reason why we love this team for DFS purposes and I don’t write them up every week is because they are going to play exactly the same no matter the score and we know who will get the ball. Christian Kirk makes a fine GPP play if he is back but I usually shy away from Larry Fitzgerald as he needs a TD to produce with this ADOT.
- NYG Side: As I said in the probable outcome post, Saquon Barkley is game script proof and if the Giants are able to win, he will most likely have a hand in it. With no CMC this week, he makes sense as a potential slate breaking play but I won’t go overboard.
San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) @ Washington Redskins. Over/Under 41.5.
Probable Outcome:
- A game that will get overlooked by the masses but a coaching change (and philosophy) in Washington and San Fran in a great spot opens up opportunities for one-off plays when most will simply ignore this game.
- SF Side: First things first, the San Francisco D is in a great spot. They are costly but are firmly in play as we have seen defenses break slates almost each week this year. The rest of the plays can be maddening because the 49ers are so good at spreading the ball around. Washington does very little well on defense so I will stick with the most obvious play to help get them an easy victory in George Kittle.
- WAS Side: The 49ers are known to be a stout defense. However, the Redskins will be down in this game and will start throwing to catch-up. The 49ers are actually vulnerable at defending WR’s and Terry McLaurin will be moved all around to scheme on getting him the ball. I think he is in a sneaky good spot to keep producing.
Contrarian View:
- There isn’t much to add here and I won’t go into team specific pivots but the bold can be rewarded by taking a stand and choosing another piece of this 49ers offense that will SMASH With this being such a large spread, I script the 49ers to rely on the run and cruise to victory. I will lean Tevin Coleman as the 1a RB in this offense but Breida makes an interesting play as well.
Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) Over/Under 49.5.
Probable Outcome:
- The NFL game of the week in my opinion. It should be great from a pure football perspective and as well for DFS. Most casual players will see these teams and think “Marquee defenses” but that will be incorrect and provides us with plenty of offensive choices.
- BAL Side: Seattle is absolutely mediocre on defense which wont shy me away from the talents of Lamar Jackson who is setup in an up-tempo matchup that might require him to keep his foot on the pedal all four quarters. While you don’t need to stack the game when you have someone like Lamar, Mark Andrews is a great play as Seattle is one of the worst teams at stopping TE’s.
Contrarian View:
- Seattle is viewed as the FG favorite but I can see this game going either way, so I will definitely run a few lineups with my thoughts if the Ravens win.
- BAL Side: If the Ravens pull it off, all the above mentioned players are still in player. Monitor the status of Hollywood Brown as nobody can cover his speed when he is firing on all cylinders. However, my favorite play will be more ground game which means Mark Ingram is in play.
- SEA side: There aren’t many other options I want to pivot to in this game. I think the Ravens secondary matches up well with the outside WR’s and the Ravens have been exceptional at stopping TE’s do I won’t get clever with Luke Willson. You could make an argument the Baltimore D is an interesting pivot as they only need to stop Carson or Lockett (plus Wilson) if they lock down the rest and this could be a low scoring game.
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