Wild Card weekend is upon us. With less games, we can afford to dive a bit deeper into each matchup as they key to winnings these playoff slates are to find the value gem that allows you to unlock the best players. Basically it feels similar to the Thanksgiving Slate. We will attack all 4 games in this column.
For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it.
As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.
All lines are current as of Thursday Afternoon:
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-2.5). Over/Under 44.
Probable Outcome:
- Houston is getting back JJ Watt which should be a boost for this struggling defense. They have really struggled over the last half of the season. Vegas projects this to be the lowest scoring game of the week. Let’s dive into the game under that scenario.
- BUF Side: Currently projected to score under 20 points, this is the least desirable side on the entire weekend. However, it’s difficult to completely fade a side with only four games on the slate. First time QB’s typically struggle in their debut playoff game which hurts Allen and the long ball of John Brown. If the Bills find themselves down, I will look at Cole Beasley to play the security blanket. It’s not sexy but 6-7 catches are possible.
- HOU Side: The Houston offense faces a stout Buffalo defense. If this game plays out at projected, it will be a slower grind type of game with the air attack being slowed considerably. It’s rare I go this way but I might make this a Carlos Hyde Pairing him with Texans D makes sense.
Alternative Outcome:
- Only one of these defenses (Buffalo) should be considered elite, so there is a chance this game opens up a bit more than Vegas projects.
- BUF Side: Even with JJ back, the Bills could move the ball against this porous defense. If they can do so, they have a fairly concentrated core of skill players. I will be hesitant to play Josh Allen in his first playoff game but John Brown and Devin Singletary make sense in this spot.
- HOU Side: I think a lot of people will still play Deandre Hopkins even though he should see shadow coverage by White. I will shift to Will Fuller (assuming healthy) and pairing him with Deshaun Watson.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-5). Over/Under 44.
Probable Outcome:
- I think the general public will make Tennessee a trendy upset selection. Patriots have struggled recently and just lost to the Dolphins but let’s not forget they are playing at home and they have an ELITE defense on their side. I don’t expect New England to make another super bowl run, but me and Vegas do think they will win this one.
- TEN Side: Tannehill is a veteran but I believe this is his first playoff start, plus the Patriots should be able to shut down their best WR (Brown) by putting Gilmore on him and then stacking the box to stop Henry. I will tread very lightly in this road spot.
- NE Side: The obvious play is Patriots D. Beyond that, it’s tough to trust the passing game with Edelman playing hurt and Brady struggling. It seems like the last few weeks they have been preparing for Winter football by running the ball more often. Like last year in the playoffs, my favorite play will be Sony Michel.
Alternative Outcome:
- I not envision this game evolving into an offensive shootout (but you will be unique if you play it as such), however, the Titans have a legit chance of winning the game.
- TEN Side: If the Titans win, I envision it’s on the legs of Derrick Henry as he is the type of back built for the playoffs. He is a beast late in the season and he is the skill player I am willing to bet on breaking this elite defense. If I am going to the air, I might take a shot on Corey Davis but I’m not excited about it
- NE Side: I am genuinely concerned with the Edelman injury. I do not think he is right and I will be a week late on him instead of early if he is going to produce at his normal level. If NE gets behind, James White would be the back in the game and I would bet on him catching plenty of dump offs in the back field.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-7.5). Over/Under 49.5.
Probable Outcome:
- The only projected “blowout” of the week will likely end up that way as the Saints are unlucky to not get a bye. They should be able to control the tempo of this game and coast to victory before heading on the road.
- MIN Side: The Saints are getting back to full strength on defense which spells trouble. I expect Lattimore to shadow digs (a matchup he can beat) but it makes Adam Thielen very enticing. Kirk Cousins should be able to move the ball in catchup mode as well so he makes an interesting stack option.
NO Side: The Vikings have nobody who can stop Michael Thomas. He should be the cash game lock of the week, even at his price. Vikings are usually solid at limiting QB action but Drew Brees is a different passer than most. He will rely on his short efficient throws to dissect this defense.
NO Side: The Vikings have nobody who can stop Michael Thomas. He should be the cash game lock of the week, even at his price. Vikings are usually solid at limiting QB action but Drew Brees is a different passer than most. He will rely on his short efficient throws to dissect this defense.Contrarian View:
- Minnesota might be able to keep pace with the Saints which means this is the best spot for a game stack. Plenty of elite talents on both sides of the ball.
- MIN Side: I prefer the passing side of this compared to Dalvin Cook coming off an injury. I will bet on Stefon Diggs beating the shadow coverage and have a sprinkle of Kyle Rudolph who has really come on the last month.
- NO Side: Not sure if its feasible to get both MT and Alvin Kamara in the same lineup but Alvin has started finding the end zone and his pass catching chops might be able to beat the usually stout run D.
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles. Over/Under 45.5.
Probable Outcome:
- The only road favorite of the week. Make sure to have a piece of the final game as both defenses are two of the most attackable in the playoffs.
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- SEA Side: With what seems like every RB out for the year for Seattle, they finally put the ball in their best player’s hands, letting Russell Wilson throw 40 times and run 8 times against SF. I would expect the same thing against Philly who are stout against the run but soft against the pass. Any of his pass catchers make sense but I think speed is what hurts Philly the most so my main play will be Tyler Lockett.
- PHI Side: The Seattle Seahawks are mediocre on defense, the pull is that the Philly offense is still decimated by injuries. There will be plenty of ways to go in this game but I expect Carson Wentz to be able to lift this team up and with them projected to be down, I will pair him with either of Greg Ward or Dallas Goedert.
Contrarian View:
- I do not anticipate shying away from this game. The only way to pivot is to perhaps attack the parts most people will shy away from.
- SEA Side: It has been a winning strategy for about 2 years to avoid RBs against the Eagles, and I will obey when it comes to Marshawn Lynch as I do not see him finding success being run into the heart of that line. However, Travis Homer makes sense as a GPP Pivot as he might be a cheap source of catches out of the backfield.
- PHI Side: We need to monitor the injury news but I expect Miles Sanders to gut it out this week and he may go overlooked with the other RB options we have.
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