The NFL season moves fast. When did we get to week 10? Being this late in the season means that there are fewer opportunities to win money playing NFL Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS). With no time to waste, here are my thoughts this week about player prices for Yahoo’s DFS format.
Note: The Thursday and Monday night games are not included in the main slate of Yahoo contests.
1 point for 25 passing yards 1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards
0.5 points for a reception
4 points for passing touchdown 6 points for rushing/receiving/return touchdowns
-1 point for an interception -2 points for a fumble lost
1 QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex(R/W/T) 1 DEF $200 budget
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and as November rolls along, we may even see some snow. There is only one team that plays Home and Dome in week 10:
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Jared Goff LAR, $31 vs SEA
The Seahawks have not been kind for fantasy production at any position. In 0.5 PPR (point per reception) formats, they are ranked in the bottom third of the league in points allowed to all positions except WR. Logically, if the Rams exploit that and put up points with the WRs than Jared Goff will benefit greatly. His Yahoo price certainly reflects Seattle’s league-low 13.52 fantasy points per game scored by opposing QBs. At $31, it is the lowest since the week 4 game against the Vikings. Among all QBs this week, Goff is tied for 12th as the most expensive QB, making him somewhat of a bargain. I am not overly concerned about Goff as the Seahawks have not faced an offense quite as proficient as the Rams this season. Los Angeles is projected by Vegas to score 30 points, tied for the 2nd highest of the week. Yes, Todd Gurley will probably contribute a TD or 2, but I prefer to buy into this passing offense at a slight discount.
Marcus Mariota TEN, $22 vs NE
Marcus Mariota‘s fantasy points per game are quite concerning considering that he only averages 13.6. He is, however, on a bit of a streak with 16+points in each of the last 2 weeks. In spite of his mini-run recently, Mariota’s cost has continued to remain depressed. The only starting QBs with cheaper price tags in week 10 are both involved in the Bills-Jets game. There will probably not be an abundance of points scored and if there are, I do not expect them to come through the air (more on that later). Going against the Patriots, the Titans will probably have to pass the ball more than 25 times, as Mariota has done in his 3 best fantasy games in 2018. It may not be pretty, but the price allows for multiple top-tier players at other positions.
Melvin Gordon LAC, $35 @ OAK
The Raiders season can be characterized as a massive disappointment, both for fans and players alike. With the departures of arguably their two best players via trade, the Raiders appear to be in a tailspin. Oakland is coming off of a game where they allowed the 49ers, led by a QB making his first career NFL start, to put up 31 points. We can only imagine what a Chargers team can do considering their QB is about to make his 201st consecutive start. Los Angeles has an implied total of 30 points, tied for the 2nd highest in week 10. Since the Raiders have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR formats, we can assume that Melvin Gordon will be in line for a productive day. The RB dealt with a hamstring injury that forced him to miss week 8. Returning after their week 8 bye, the Chargers did not limit Gordon as he received 16 touches.
Kareem Hunt KC, $34 vs ARI
After a relatively slow start, Kareem Hunt has been on fire lately, with his 4 best fantasy performances of 2018 coming in the last 6 weeks. Going up against the team that has given up the 2nd most 0.5 PPR fantasy points to RBs, there is no reason to believe that this trend will end. One factor as to why Arizona has been so generous to RBs is the 10 rushing TDs that they have allowed to the position, 3rd most in the league. Hunt has been quite capable of getting into the end zone, as there has been only one game in 2018 where he has failed to do so. Considering the Chiefs have a league-best 32.75 over/under point line, it is not out of the question for Hunt to have another 3 TD game, a feat he has accomplished twice in the last three weeks.
Mark Ingram NO, $21 @ CIN
The Saints RB usage has been quite clear throughout the year. Since Mark Ingram‘s return from suspension, he has gotten his biggest workloads in games where New Orleans hold a significant lead. Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara has seen more usage against opponents whose offenses can keep up with that of the Saints. The Bengals have certainly been capable of putting up points this season. However, with the news of A.J. Green‘s foot injury, they will be without one of their most dangerous offensive weapons. Having to adjust to life without Green, at least for week 10, could be rather difficult. Tyler Boyd has been great in 2018, but he will now see if he can produce against a defense that is keying in on him. Provided Ingram feels no ill effects of an injury that limited him in week 9, he should be in line for another game of double-digit carries. This is especially valuable on a team like the Saints who have an implied total of 29.5 points, the 4th highest. While Ingram has not scored a TD since week 5, that could certainly change in week 10.
Julio Jones ATL, $33 @ CLE
It finally happened! Julio Jones scored a TD in 2018. In spite of his lack of finding the end zone, Jones has averaged 16 fantasy point per game in 0.5 PPR settings. The expectations for Jones entering the season were that he would better the 3 TDs that he scored in 2017. Halfway through the season, and Jones is on pace to get only 2 scores. Considering that his previous full-season low for TDs was 6, these last two seasons have been disappointing. Perhaps the floodgates have now opened and that TD last week will lead to several more in 2018. Jones has a great opportunity to put up fantasy points in week 10. The Browns have allowed the 2nd most receiving yards to WRs this season. Therefore, even if Jones cannot get into the end zone, the game is set up for him to be a good DFS play.
Los Angeles Rams WR $27-25 vs SEA
With the Rams three main receivers, DFS players can essentially pick their poison. Robert Woods ($27), Brandin Cooks ($26) and Cooper Kupp ($25) are all priced close together to the point where they are almost indistinguishable. All three are within 1.4 fantasy points per game averages in 0.5 PPR formats. Kupp is leading the way at 15.5 even though he is the least expensive. He also has the biggest fantasy game of all three this year with 32.7 points in week 4. All three are constantly involved but Woods more so than the other two, which may explain why he is the most expensive. Woods has only received less than 7 targets in one game this year, and he still managed 18.8 fantasy points in that contest. Cooks is the designated deep threat who is actually leading the Rams in receiving yards. Any of them offer a great stacking opportunity with Jared Goff.
Keenan Allen LAC, $26 @ OAK
I have already mentioned how vulnerable the Raiders are to fantasy RBs, but they are equally ineffective are stopping WRs. On average, they have allowed 26.69 0.5 PPR fantasy points to WRs, which is the seventh highest amount in the NFL this season. Keenan Allen has suffered through a TD drought since week 1. There appears to be no better remedy for that than playing Oakland. At only $26, Allen has the potential to produce like a top-tier WR at a reduced price.
Josh Gordon NE, $21 @ TEN
The Titans made some key additions to their secondary the last couple of seasons. Unfortunately for them, the results have not been there in 2018. Tennesse has allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to WRs in 0.5 PPR formats. This bodes well for Josh Gordon who has been producing of late with two 100-yard games in the last three weeks. He should continue riding this momentum in week 10. Especially since the Patriots are tied the 7th highest implied point total of any team on the Sunday slate.
Jack Doyle IND, $16 JAX
In order to get some Home and Dome representation, I am selecting Jack Doyle. Since the Home and Dome games favor the passing game, I want to get a piece of the Colts aerial offense. In both of the full games that he played, Doyle has seen at least 7 targets. The Jaguars have allowed the 11th fewest 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game to TEs this season. While that is not great, Jacksonville is more vulnerable to production form that position than they are from WRs. They have actually allowed the fewest points in the league to WRs. The risk with Indianapolis is that both Doyle and Eric Ebron receive opportunities to score. I prefer the less expensive option, and in this case, that is Doyle.
Vernon Davis WAS, $12 @ TB
This is probably a tournament only pick, but one with high-upside. With Jordan Reed limited at practice this week (it was only a matter of time) Vernon Davis could be an interesting play against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has given up the 2nd most fantasy points per game this season in 0.5 PPR formats. Even if Reed plays, Davis could be was heavily involved in the offense as was the case last week. Against the Falcons, Davis had 1 more target even though Reed out snapped him 38-31. If Reed is limited at all, there is a good chance that Davis could outproduce him once more. $12 is a great price to pay for a TE, especially when the matchup is so enticing.
Tevin Coleman ATL, $21 @ CLE
Tevin Coleman is currently riding a 3-game TD streak. It would not be surprising if he extended that to 4 straight games. The Browns have allowed 12 rushing TD to RBs this year, the most in the league. Beyond letting rushers get into the end zone, Cleveland has allowed the 3rd most 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game to RBs. The only concern for Coleman is how much work his teammate Ito Smith will command. Smith has been getting more touches of late, with double-digit carries in three of the last four games. Even so, Coleman has only had one game in 2018 where he had less than 10 touches, including at least 17 in four games. All to say that both Falcons RBs are viable plays this week. As the team’s lead back, I prefer Coleman, even with the extra $6 needed to get him.
Aaron Jones GB, $19 vs MIA
Speaking of lead backs, Aaron Jones has established himself in that role the last couple of weeks. In the two most recent Packers contests, Jones has had 12 and 14 carries respectively, his hights totals of 2018. This is in spite of the fact that he has a costly fumble in the 2nd half last week. While Green Bay is most known for its passing attack, the Dolphins are far more vulnerable to RB than they are to WRs. Miami has allowed the 7th most fantasy points in 0.5 PPR setting to RBs. The other aspect warranting his inclusion in this article is the offense he operates in. The Packers have an implied total of 28.75 points, which is the 5th highest this week. Furthermore, there is Jones’ price tag. At $19, the only other RBs topping their respective depth chart that are less expensive are Kenyan Drake, Dion Lewis and…
Isaiah Crowell NYJ, $16 vs BUF
… Isaiah Crowell. While Drake and Lewis have difficult matchups, Crowell faces one of the worst teams at stopping the run. This season, the Bills have allowed the 11th most 0.5 PPR fantasy points to RBs. That included the 4th most rushing TD allowed to RBs in 2018. While there is a concern that Elijah McGuire‘s role will dimish Crowell’s workload, and rightfully so as we saw last week, this matchup certainly favors the goal-line back. Crowell has had 15 red zone carries so far this season. Last week, Buffalo played the Bears. Entering that matchup, Tarik Cohen was coming off of four straight games with at least 17.5 fantasy points. Against the Bills, he only produced 13 scrimmage yards on 7 touches as he ceded a larger workload to Jordan Howard. If the Jets apply that type of RB strategy in week 10, then Crowell will be the main beneficiary.
TreQuan Smith NO, $16 @ CIN
While I have expressed some concern about the Bengals offense this week, Vegas gave their game against the Saints the highest over/under line at 54 points combined. If the contest does end up as a shootout, then several receivers should have productive afternoons. I would much rather invest into the offense that has the higher implied total and that would be the unit from New Orleans. While Michael Thomas is a fine option, his price increase makes it problematic to fit him into the budget with other top-tier players. Enter Tre’Quan Smith who still allows DFS players the ability to matchup against the unit giving up the 6th most 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game to WRs. Smith also provides some roster flexibility at only $16.
Los Angeles Chargers, $15 @ OAK
I usually prefer to take defenses playing at home in DFS. This week, however, there are great matchups featuring road teams at decent prices. It all begins with the Chargers visiting Oakland. This Raiders offense (and team in general) appears to be in shambles with the recent departure of Amari Cooper. While they do not turn the ball over often, the Raiders have scored less than 20 points in over half of their games this season. Their 17.5 points per game scored is the 5th fewest in the entire league. They have also allowed 25 sacks, and only 8 teams have been sacked more often in 2018. All of this adds up to a great matchup for the Chargers defense.
New Orleans Saints, $11 @ CIN
This is one selection where I am going out on a limb. When writing about Mark Ingram, I outlined my concerns with Tyler Boyd functioning as the primary receiver for Cincinnati. Even if the Bengals passing game gets shut down, they will probably have to continue to air it out in order to keep up with New Orleans. That could lead to some turnovers which are valuable in DFS as they could potentially become a defensive score. At only $11, the Saints defense is a perfect pick to save money for other positions.Download the Free GoingFor2 App by Clicking Here...