We have a week where Todd Gurley is not on the main-slate! People will actually have to do some research and construct lineups without the best fantasy-producing running back of recent memory. At first glance, it looks like the Saints vs. Eagles game is going to be the obvious chalk. I think we need to get exposure. Especially with the game total set at 56, which is three points higher than any other game on the main-slate.
The common trend in NFL DFS this year has been to pay up for running back. The top tier studs are all in great spots again this week. In cash games, I would recommend trying to get three backs and find value elsewhere. In GPP’s though, bucking the trend is an interesting route to take. Let’s dive in a little deeper into this slate to uncover some of the best DFS GPP options.
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Andrew Luck (IND) vs. TEN $7,800Â
First of all, Drew Brees and Carson Wentz are of course great plays. That game should see plenty of offense and both QB’s should have big days. If we consider game theory though, Andrew Luck will come in at half of the ownership with similar upside and at a lower cost. Luck is first in the NFL with 13 passing scores, inside the 10-yard line. In addition, he has thrown at least three touchdowns in each of the last six games. The offensive line for the Colts has improved dramatically. On the “fast track” in Indy, there is a lot to love against a pedestrian Titans team.
DraftKings
Matt Ryan (ATL) vs. DAL $6,100Â
The Falcons quarterback has now produced at least 20 DraftKings points in four consecutive weeks, two of which were over 30. Again, at half the ownership to the obvious guys, Ryan is another option who has just as much upside. Dallas will be without Sean Lee and have allowed an average of 101.3 QB rating to opposing quarterbacks. Ryan has been picked off just three times all season, with just one in the last seven weeks. He is averaging 330 yards and 2.73 touchdowns in that span. With Tevin Coleman starting at the running back position, the Falcons are less reliant on the run and depend a lot more on throwing the ball. Ryan is a great GPP pivot if you are looking for a lower-owned option.
Others to consider: Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota
Running Backs
FanDuel
Joe Mixon (CIN) @ BAL $7,300
Similar to the quarterback position, there are obvious, great plays for running backs. That being said, the Bengals lead back will go completely overlooked in what looks like a tough matchup. Baltimore has a reputation of being a very stout defense but has shown cracks in recent weeks. Given this is a classic divisional, AFC North game, the total screams to bet the under. It should be a ground-and-pound style of game where both teams grind out the run. The Bengals are without AJ Green and thus will lean heavily on Joe Mixon. With the heavy workload, I think Mixon could fall into a 20+ FanDuel performance.
DraftKings
James Conner (PIT) @ JAX $7,200Â
This is simply a price recommendation. He is the seventh most expensive running back on DraftKings, yet is averaging the third most fantasy points per game. Jacksonville is a defense which has been middle of the road this year. On the road, Pittsburgh will lean on Conner, assuming he is fully recovered from his concussion. Conner has emerged through the Steelers system as a number one fantasy running back and should continue his success this week. At nearly a $2,000 discount (in relation to his production), James Conner is a lock.
Others to consider: Melvin Gordon, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliot, Dion Lewis, David Johnson
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Wide Receivers
FanDuel
T.Y. Hilton (IND) vs. TEN $6,800
My favorite wide receiver of the week is T.Y. Hilton. Coming off a 3-77-0 outing against a tough Jaguars matchup, Hilton will see Malcolm Butler coverage, at home. Every year, Hilton has one monster game where he hauls in a couple bombs and racks up 200+ yards. I feel like that is going to be this week. He seems fully healthy, as does Luck. The offensive line is among the best in the NFL this year. The matchup is fantastic. Last, it is on the “fast-track”. Stars are aligning for Hilton to have a huge week.
DraftKings
Nelson Agholor (PHI) @ NO $4,100
This game should see the most points this week. Philadelphia will keep this game closer than people think. Yes, the Saints are among the hottest teams in the NFL and are coming off an onslaught in Cincinnati. However, the Eagles have a very dynamic offense, with plenty of weapons. New Orleans will likely gameplan around Zach Ertz and try to limit Alshon Jeffery with safeties covering over top. Nelson Agholor is the odd man left out. Caron Wentz will need to throw the ball close to 50 times in this game and Agholor can easily pay off his $4,100 price tag with a few catches. The addition of Golden Tate is a concern, however, he only saw 29% of the snaps last week and will be limited, in an important game. If anything, he will take snap share away from Jordan Mathews. Agholor has a knack for getting loose downfield and one deep catch can pay off value.
Others to consider: Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Seth Roberts, Corey Davis, Dede Westbrook
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Tight Ends
FanDuel and DraftKings
Zach Ertz (PHI) vs. NO $7,600 (FD) $6,600 (DK)
I know I mentioned the Saints will try to game plan around Ertz. I also know I recommended Nelson Agholor. However, two things make Zach Ertz an absolute “must-play” option in DFS this week. First of all, Ertz is the only tight end who you are 100% confident will not give you zero fantasy points. Any week. All other tight ends have a floor of zero. Secondly, the price is way too low. We have to consider a player of Ertz’s production as a wide receiver. At $6,600, he is in the same range as players like Emmanuel Sanders, Alshon Jeffery, Keenan Allen, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. All receivers are averaging around 18 DraftKings points per game. Ertz is averaging nearly 22. His red zone target percentage is 32% (41.2% inside the 10-yard line). Without Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce available on the slate, Zach Ertz is the absolute lock, regardless of cash games, GPP’s or site.
Others to consider: None
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