The most popular question in DFS this week is “to Gurley, or not to Gurley”. Site-dependent, Todd Gurley is certainly worth a fade. It should be the first question you ask yourself when building a lineup this week. There are paths to fading Gurley, especially on FanDuel, where his price is all the way up to $11,200. Last week, the fade worked out because so many other running backs went off. This week, Kareem Hunt is really the only big name guy who can come close to running with Gurley, in terms of fantasy production. Ownership is another factor. In cash games, we don’t really care, but in GPP’s, Gurley could see upwards of 40%. Two lines of thought; 60% of the field is stupid and we should lock in the best player to compete against the 40% who own him. Or, fade the chalk and pray that Todd Gurley does not continue doing what no other running back in the history of the NFL has ever done.
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Baker Mayfield (CLE) vs. KC $7,400Â
There is a lot of reason to be cautious with Baker Mayfield. Making him a very fun GPP option in DFS this week. With the coaching change and the recent struggles, his ownership should slide down to the 1-3% range. We have seen the skill of Mayfield and we have also witnessed how bad the Kansas City defense is. At home, the Browns will likely be behind all game, providing the perfect game script for a young gun-slinger with talented receivers. It is pretty clear where the ownership is trending this week and Mayfield is going completely overlooked, after being the fantasy darling in week three.
DraftKings
Kirk Cousins (MIN) vs. DET $6,200Â
Of the top-tier quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins will go somewhat overlooked as well. The obvious quarterbacks this week are Cam Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Brees, and Jared Goff. All of the focus this week is on two games. Sure, two very fantasy relevant games. I would get exposure in cash games to these matchups and then look elsewhere in GPP’s. There are still very fantasy happy options across the board which will be very low-owned. Which is how you win a GPP.
The Lions rank near the bottom in nearly every defensive category. A lot of people will look to Latavius Murray, but Dalvin Cook is expected to play some snaps this week. Either way, the Vikings like to throw for scores more than run them in any way. Also, Adam Thielen. He is balling out of control right now. He, alone, will give Kirk Cousins a high enough floor to not sink a lineup and add to a very high ceiling.
Others to consider: The quarterbacks mentioned above in the two games are all viable, just know that they will be the highest owned at the position.Â
Running Backs
FanDuel
Javorius Allen (BAL) vs. PIT $5,400Â
This could be the best possible week for Buck Allen. As a great, salary-saving option, he provides the salary relief to roster Todd Gurley. He will also be extremely contrarian which makes it viable to eat the chalk elsewhere.
Here’s the thing, Alex Collins is not 100% healthy. He also fumbled last week. The Baltimore Ravens absolutely cannot stand it when their players fumble the ball. Ty Montgomery will not be a factor as the newly acquired back in Baltimore, leaving Allen with a lot of the work, if Collins is not playing as much as I believe. At next to zero ownership and a very low price, Javorius Allen is a very appealing option.
DraftKings
Kareem Hunt (KC) @ CLE $7,700
Although he is not going to come in very low-owned, he is, in my opinion, the best pivot off Todd Gurley on DraftKings. For some reason, DK decided to lower Gurley’s price after putting up 36.5 fantasy points in a game where he could have scored another touchdown at the end of the game, but decided to run out the clock and secure the victory. I digress. Hunt is in a fantastic matchup where the Chiefs should be leading all game long in Cleveland. Andy Reid is the most fantasy-friendly coach to running backs in football. If you go all the way back to 2003 and look at the names; Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, and now Kareem Hunt. Sure, Hunt is talented and versatile. But Andy Reid features him and he will continue to do so as he will produce monster games, even with the wonder boy, Patrick Mahomes leading the charge at quarterback.
Others to consider: Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, Jordan Howard, Adrian Peterson
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Wide Receivers
FanDuel
Antonio Brown (PIT) @ BAL $8,800
To start, Antonio Brown is still the best wide receiver in football and should be considered each week, regardless of matchup. On a week where he will fall way under-owned due to the price and matchup, Brown becomes one of the top GPP options. This is a pure pivot off Adam Theilen, who in his own right is a great play. In week 15 last year, Brown posted a ridiculous 11-213-0, showing his ceiling against the division rival Ravens. While we certainly cannot expect this kind of production again this Sunday, Brown is an elite, matchup-proof player and is interesting to consider.
DraftKings
Jarvis Landry (CLE) vs. KC $6,500Â
If you decide to go with Baker Mayfield, Landry is a great pairing option. Landry is his “go-to guy” and the Browns should be able to score against the Chiefs. His double-digit targets over the last six games make up for the lack of touchdown performances this season and the game script will play in his favor. He provides a fantastic fantasy floor on DraftKings where we do get the point per reception. Landry leads the league in average targets per game over the last four weeks with 12 and should go overlooked with plenty of wide receivers available.
Others to consider: Mike Evans, Adam Theilen, Cooper Kupp, DJ Moore, Julio Jones
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Tight Ends
FanDuel
OJ Howard (TB) @ CAR $6,000
If not for Cameron Brate, OJ Howard would be among the receiving leaders at the tight end position. He is much more talented and one of those “athletic freaks” who are capable of making defenders look foolish on any play. Howard is seeing an uptick in target share and turning it into fantasy production. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the talk of the week as he will get the start this Sunday in a game which should see plenty of offense. Howard is a great way to get exposure and only needs one touchdown to pay off value.
DraftKings
Chris Herndon (NYJ) @ MIA $3,000
At a near minimum price tag, Chris Herndon provides a lot of salary relief with plenty of upside. This becomes a must play if we get news that either, or both Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa are out. Herndon has scored a touchdown in three straight weeks and while he has not seen a lot of targets, he only needs nine points to go 3X and hit GPP value.
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