Welcome to Week 4! This is an exciting week. In the weeks leading up, there have always been a few games to hone in on with huge implied game totals. This week, there are just two games projected to see just over 50 points. I don’t foresee the cash line to be nearly as high as it was last week where 250 points took down the big GPP’s. There is a lot of obvious chalk this week and a lot of people will be chasing the last week studs. Let’s dive into this slate a little deeper and take a look at some of the best GPP options this week.
Russell Wilson (SEA) @ ARI $7,500
The Seahawks quarterback is easily the most important player on the team. All of the offense goes through him. Although Chris Carson saw a massive workload last week, he was only able to average 3.1 yards per carry. This week, against the Cardinals, expect Russ to break out for a big fantasy game at low ownership. Wilson has thrown at least two touchdowns in each of his last five outing against Arizona. In his six career games, he has 11 total passing scores and just one interception.
Although the rushing numbers have been down so far in 2018, we should expect some positive regression. Keep in mind, the Seahawks have faced the Broncos (in Denver), the Bears (in Chicago), and an underrated Cowboys defense. Arizona ranks 8th worst pass rush, according to PFF, which should help give Wilson more than enough time to beat this defense through the air and on the ground.
Baker Mayfield (CLE) @ OAK $5,300
It was only a matter of time before the young phenom would get his shot as a starter in the NFL for the Cleveland Browns. To put it simply, Mayfield looked exceptional in his Tyrod Taylor relief appearance. From witnessing the success Patrick Mahomes has accomplished so far, there is no reason to doubt Baker having similar success. The two rookies have incredible skill and are surrounded by talent.
The Browns quarterback really has all of the tools to succeed this week. He has the big arm, accuracy, and the elusiveness with his legs to escape any trouble he may see. What puts him over the top is the incredible matchup against the Raiders. After trading Kahlil Mack, Oakland’s pass rush is nearly non-existent. The skill set, combined with his “first-pick-overall” swagger, leaves me to believe that Baker will absolutely shred this Raiders team on Sunday.
Other Quarterbacks to consider: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr
Jordan Howard (CHI) vs. TB $7,200
Opportunity = fantasy. As long as a running back gets the carries and snaps, most of the time, he should produce fantasy numbers. Jordan Howard is clearly the guy in Chicago. Before the season started, Tarik Cohen gained some steam in season-long drafts and interest in DFS. However, his 14 rush attempts through three games just shows us that he is nothing more than an afterthought in this Bears offense.
Howard has not been great this year but has provided a decent floor with the opportunity share. This week, Chicago hosts the dynamic offense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Generally, when a high-powered offense comes to town, we want the air attack on the other side. I think this game goes the other way though. All things considered, the Bucs receivers are not very good. They have a ton of speed and that’s about it. The reason they have all had monster games so far is that Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting great pass protection giving receivers a ton of time to get open down-field. Now, they will see arguably the best pass rush in the NFL. Fitz won’t have nearly the time in the pocket to let offensive plays develop. The Bears defense should be able to shut down the air attack and then control the clock on the ground when their offense takes the field.
Tevin Coleman (ATL) vs. CIN $5,900
Chalk Tevin Coleman did not make owners too happy last week in the shootout game against the Saints. Only scoring 12.7 DraftKings points, Coleman has not shown that he can capitalize on the opportunity from Devonta Freeman’s injury. Considering teammate Ito Smith is also getting more involved, Coleman should go close to 10% owned this week.
This is when we jump on him. The Bengals are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to running backs, 26th in rushing yards allowed per game, and 19th in yards per carry. The Bengals should be able to score against the Falcons terrible defense, which should make this another back-and-forth offensive game. Coleman is an important part of this offense and given the opportunity as the lead back, he should be able to find plenty of fantasy production.
Other running backs to consider: Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliot, David Johnson, Giovani Bernard, Sonny Michel
Marquise Goodwin (SF) @ LAC $5,500
Although Jimmy G won’t be throwing him the ball, Marquise Goodwin is still a great GPP wide receiver option. The 49’ers should be playing catchup all game against the Chargers, leaving C.J. Beathard to throw at least most of the second half. Last season, Goodwin only caught one touchdown from Beathard, but he did have four plays of over 30 yards.
Game theory comes into play this week for cheap wide receivers. Goodwin is a great pivot off of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, who should see around 20% ownership each. For GPP’s, we are looking for fast guys who can haul in a deep touchdown pass any given week. Goodwin is exactly that. Hopefully, he makes his big catch early on so we aren’t sweating all game.
Jarvis Landry (CLE) @ OAK $7,400
Quietly, Jarvis Landry has produced like a top-tier wide receiver in 2019. Scoring 20.6, 11.9, and 23.3 DraftKings points in each week, respectively, Landry has taken over the “high-volume” role as the clear check-down, slot guy. Once Mayfield came into the game last week, Landry became his favorite target. I expect Baker to throw a lot in his first starting game and Landry will be the defacto beneficiary. On a site which gives us a full point per reception, he is a no-brainer in cash, with GPP upside. In the past, Landry has been priced as low as $5,500. At his elevated $7,400 tag, most will look elsewhere (like A.J. Green for just $100 more). We should see around 10% ownership for a guy who has massive potential.
Other wide receivers to consider: Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., Will Fuller, Julio Jones, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Antonio Callaway
FanDuel / DraftKings
Dallas Goedert (PHI) @ TEN $4,600/$2,800
Even though he is not the top tight end option on his team, the Eagles rookie is seeing an increase in snap percentage since the Carson Wentz return. In week 1, Goedert saw 24%, while in week 2, just 22%. Last week, the number jumped all the way up to 67%. The shift in offensive formation took snap share away from the Eagles second and third receivers (Kamar Aiken and Jordan Mathews), as the Eagles use the two tight end set. It is no secret that Carson Wentz loves throwing to his tight ends (Trey Burton last year) and this should not be a surprise that the adjustment in offensive formation is due to his return.
It should also be noted that Goedert is a very good receiving tight end as well. The second-round pick was very good in College and showed last week that he can be fantasy relevant going 7-73-1. The Eagles should have no problems throwing on the Titans this week and Goedert would be a great GPP play at low ownership and cost.
Other tight ends to consider: Jared Cook, Jimmy Graham, Tyler Eifert, OJ Howard, Rob Gronkowski
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