Is it really Week 4 already? Man, the NFL season goes too fast. This week we have our first bye weeks with the Packers and Eagles getting the week off, but there are still plenty of options to choose from. Week 5 will be a different story with Jags, Chiefs, Saints, and Seahawks taking the week off, enjoy this week’s large player pool…
| Explosive Play | My top play for the position |
| Deep Threat | A deep threat is a second or third tier player that will outperform their price on FanDuel/DraftKings. |
| Hail Mary | Also know as a punt, a Hail Mary is a cheap, low-owned player with a ton of upside. Great for GPP's. |
| Missed Tackle | A missed tackle is a first or second tier player that I’ll be fading in my contests. |
*Prices are based on FanDuel, but most plays will crossover to DraftKings as well
**This picks are for the Main Slate (Sunday Only)
Quarterbacks
Explosive Play | Cam Newton (CAR) @ ATL $9,300
Okay, this is a bit of a cop out by me taking the top QB on the slate, but it’s actually not the no-brainer you would think it would be. Historically Newton has struggled against the Falcons averaging less than 20 FanDuel points since 2014. So why do I have him as my top play? It’s a gut call. The Panthers struggled mightily against the Vikings last week and are 1-and-2 on the season, they are desperate and angry and they will take it out on the Falcons’ soft secondary that allow 318 pass yards a game — bottom five in the league through three weeks.
Deep Threat | Philip Rivers (SD) vs NO $8,500
Basically, every QB that plays against the Saints defense for the rest of the season will likely make this column. The Saints defense couldn’t stop a WNBA team from scoring 28 points.
Hail Mary | Kirk Cousins (WAS) vs CLE $7,600
The Redskins got lucky last week, but it’s better to be lucky than good sometimes. That victory will serve as a confidence booster to this offense, and to Cousins specifically, and now they get a home game against the Browns — just what the doctor ordered. Week 4 will be Cousins’ coming out party. Bold prediction, he throws for three TDs and runs for another.
Missed Tackle | Derek Carr (OAK) @ BAL $8,000
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There are a couple things working against the Raiders. First, the Ravens defense has improved over last year and are top ten in points allowed to opposing QBs through three weeks. Second, and more importantly, they are playing an east coast 1pm game which historically west coast teams struggle with. At $8,000, there are better options.
Others I like: Ben Roethlisberger $8,400, Matthew Stafford $8,300
Running Backs
Explosive Play | C.J. Anderson (DEN) @ TB $7,900
Anderson had some tough sledding last week against the Bengals, but he should have no problem putting up huge numbers against a bad Bucs defense that ranks bottom seven in points allowed to opposing RBs. Trevor Siemian‘s game from last week with his four TDs is the anomaly, the Broncos want to run the ball, and they will get back to that gameplan this week.
Deep Threat | Melvin Gordon (SD) vs NO $7,600
The Saints are last across the board on defense and I expect the Chargers to run the ball in an attempt to keep Drew Brees and Co. on the sidelines. Gordon is finally showing the talent we all thought he had before his disappointing rookie season, and with Danny Woodhead gone for the season, he has the backfield to himself.
Hail Mary | Dwayne Washington (DET) @ CHI $4,500
This pick is the definition of a Hail Mary. Washington hasn’t seen much playing time yet, but with Ameer Abdullah on IR and Theo Riddick being largely ineffective last week as the lead back, Washington will get his shot in Week 4 against the lowly Bears defense. At $4,500 he doesn’t have to do much to hit value.
Missed Tackle | Todd Gurley (LA) @ ARI $7,700
The Cardinals got blasted in Buffalo last week, but they get to come home for this game where they play much better both offensively and defensively. There are multiple factors working against Gurley, but the big one is game flow. There is a good chance the Cardinals get up big early and limit how many touches Gurley will get.
Others I like: Jordan Howard $5,600, Spencer Ware $6,200
Wide Receivers
Explosive Play | DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) vs TEN $8,600
The Patriots were able to take Hopkins out of the game in Week 3 with a lot of over-the-top coverage, and I’m sure the Titans will try to duplicate that game plan, but the Titans are not the Patriots. Brock Osweiler needs to learn and learn soon, when in doubt, throw it to Hopkins. Hopkins will have his breakout game Sunday, mark my words.
Deep Threat | Mike Evans (TB) vs DEN $8,000
Everyone I’ve mentioned this pick to has been killing me for taking him. They tell me I’m stupid for taking a WR against this Broncos defense, but hear me out.The Broncos defense has seen three No. 1 WRs so far this year; Kelvin Benjamin, T.Y. Hilton, and A.J. Green. In Week 1 Benjamin had six receptions for 91 yards and a TD. A.J. Green in Week 3 had eight receptions for 77 yards, and T.Y. Hilton, the much smaller of the three, was pretty much shut down.
Evans more closely resembles Green and Benjamin in terms of size and speed, and because Doug Martin is out for this game, he becomes their best red zone/goal line option. It is a tough matchup, I know, and I may have to eat some crow on Monday if I’m wrong, but I’m gonna roll with him this week.
Hail Mary | Cole Beasley (DAL) @ SF $5,200
No Dez Bryant, he already leads the team in targets, and has Dak Prescott‘s trust. Beasly should thrive underneath all day against this 49ers’ defense, and while he may not be a big touchdown threat, his volume will pay off his price tag and then some.
Missed Tackle | Amari Cooper (OAK) @ BAL $7,600
For the same reasons I don’t like Carr, I don’t like Cooper. Ravens are much improved on defense and a 1pm east coast start time will affect them.
Others I like: Kelvin Benjamin $7,700, Travis Benjamin $6,600, Tyrell Williams $6,400, Golden Tate $6,200
Tight Ends
Explosive Play | Jordan Reed (WAS) vs CLE $7,500
If my bold prediction for Kirk Cousins is throwing for three TDs, then at least one of those have to go to Reed. He has been quiet for most of the year, but a matchup with the Browns will change that. He’ll catch two of those three Cousins TDs I predicted.
Deep Threat | Dennis Pitta (BAL) vs OAK $5,400
The Raiders have played the Saints, Falcons, and Titans in the first three weeks. Saints TE Coby Fleener didn’t know the playbook in Week 1 and did nothing against the Raiders. In Week 3, Titans TE Delanie Walker was injured and did not play. Even with all that working in their favor, the Raiders still rank as a bottom ten team against the TE position because Jacob Tamme ate them up in Week 2. That was a long-winded way of telling you the Raiders struggle defending the TE position and Pitta has become a target monster over the last few weeks. At $5,400, he is a steal.
Hail Mary | Zach Miller (CHI) vs DET $5,000
The Lions are dead last in points allowed to opposing tight ends through three weeks, and that includes a game against the Packers in which their tight ends only had 3 receptions for 24 yards — but one went for a TD. Jack Doyle of the Titans had two TDs in Week 1 and Delanie Walker had a TD in Week 2. So I’m going to give a not-so-bold prediction and say that Miller finds the end zone in this one.
Missed Tackle | Delanie Walker (TEN) @ HOU $6,700
He is expected to play this week after missing last week’s game with an injury, but even a healthy version of Walker would have a tough time against this defense, even if they are missing J.J. Watt.
Others I like: Jacob Tamme $5,500, Coby Fleener $5,400
Defense
Explosive Play | Arizona Cardinals vs LA $5,300
The Rams are really bad on offense despite what they did last week to Tampa Bay. The Cardinals are at home where they are much better than they showed last week in Buffalo.
Deep Threat | Baltimore Ravens vs OAK $4,400
I’ve already mentioned the west coast to east coast 1pm game time factor, so I won’t go over it again.
Hail Mary | New York Jets vs SEA $4,400
The Seahawks are also doing the west coast to east coast thing, and Russell Wilson will be less than 100 percent.
Missed Tackle | Washington Redskins vs CLE $4,600
Everyone will jump on the Redskins because they are playing the Browns, but the Redskins can’t stop the run and will be without safety DeAngelo Hall (IR) and most likely without Bashaud Breeland, thier other starting CB. The Browns will have no toruble putting up some points and their conservative approach on offense will limit any turnover chances.
Others I like: New York Jets $4,400, Denver Broncos $5,200
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