Draftkings has unveiled a new dfs format for the NFL season. The new Pickem games are much simpler than the salary-based contests we’re used to. There are 8 tiers of 8 different players in each, and you roster 1 player per tier; it’s as easy as that. I believe this is going to be a fun new game-type that should attract a more general football audience. Without being able to differentiate with unique lineup construction by paying down at QB, punting at Tight End, or making a stars and scrubs lineup, many people will be entering nearly identical teams in GPPs. Ownership is sure to be heavily focused on a few players, meaning just a few simple pivot plays can result in massive leverage against the field. There’s some serious money on the line with Draftkings running a $3 20-max entry contest with a $1 million total prize pool. Assuming Draftkings continues to offer big contests, this will be a weekly article giving my breakdown of each tier. Let’s get into it…
Tier 1
Aaron Rodgers; Matt Ryan; Kirk Cousins; Derek Carr; Ben Roethlisberger; Cam Newton; Marcus Mariota; Russell Wilson
Tier 2
Andrew Luck; Dak Prescott; Tyrod Taylor; Carson Palmer; Matthew Stafford; Jameis Winston; Andy Dalton; Eli Manning
Having Andrew Luck and Jameis Winston out of Week 1, tier 2 has just 6 options. One of my favorite games besides Seahawks/Packers to target for shootout potential is the Cardinals/Lions game. The Lions had the worst pass defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric in 2016. So, the Cardinals should be able to move the ball and score often Sunday in Detroit. Patrick Peterson is expected to cover Marvin Jones on the outside, meaning Jim Bob Cooter will be able to manufacture touches for Golden Tate and Theo Riddick in the open field, where they’re both lethal. There’s big play potential on both sides of the field in this matchup. I believe Carson Palmer will be the highest owned player in tier 2, so I like Matthew Stafford almost as much since we’re talking about raw fantasy points. Stafford still allows me to use a game stack with Larry Fitzgerald and Golden Tate.
Tier 3
David Johnson; Leveon Bell; Antonio Brown; LeSean McCoy; Julio Jones; A.J. Green; Odell Beckham; Dez Bryant
Tier 4
Mike Evans; Demarco Murray; Jordy Nelson; Devanta Freeman; T.Y. Hilton; Doug Baldwin; Amari Cooper; Terrelle Pryor
This is another loaded tier. As you probable suspect, my favorite player in this tier is Doug Baldwin to go with Wilson and Rodgers in game stacks. Baldwin is expected to see coverage from Quinten Rollins, PFF’s 87th ranked cornberback in 2016. I think he’s the best play in this tier, but we should also expect him to be the highest owned player. Mike Evans is off the board and T.Y. Hilton is playing with Scott Tolzien, so this tier has 5 realistic options after Baldwin. My two favorite pivots are Demarco Murray and Terrelle Pryor. Murray could be a great leverage play at low ownership if the Titans manage to slow down the pace and grind out the run game. I don’t see the game playing out this way as it did in 2016, but I think as a game theory play, it has value at Murray’s likely-to-be low ownership. Terrelle Pryor (6′ 4″, 228 lbs) has a great matchup against Jalen Mills (6′ 0″, 191 lbs) and a poor Eagles secondary…and that’s all I got to say about that. I will also have a few teams with Jordy Nelson as a way to differentiate my Seahawks/Packers stacks by not having Baldwin.
Tier 5
Jordan Howard; Martavis Bryant; Jay Ajayi; Golden Tate; Greg Olsen; Todd Gurley; Brandon Marshall; Darren McFadden
Tier 6
Lamar Miller; Isaiah Crowell; Danny Woodhead; Leonard Fournette; Jacquizz Rodgers; Marshawn Lynch; Ty Montgomery; Christian McCaffrey
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This tier is pretty gross, in my opinion. Christian McCaffrey should be the highest owned player, and I’m still not sold on a full workload in Week 1 for him. There’s been a lot of hype around all the plays and packages made for McCaffrey, but let’s not forget that Jonathan Stewart is still going to have a role (at least to start the season). McCaffrey has very limited touchdown upside with Stewart and Newton getting the red zone work. My favorite plays are Ty Montgomery and Lamar Miller. Montgomery is going to be the lead back for the Packers with 8 reception upside in this matchup. I understand the Seahawks D that just added Sheldon Richardson is a difficult matchup, but Montgomery’s volume and passing down role will make him viable, and he can be added to Seahawks/Packers game stacks (this is a theme). Lamar Miller is in a similar situation; he’s a home favorite due to see large volume against a good run defense in the Jaguars. I would prefer to favor volume in this tier over the hopes of McCaffrey breaking a long one.
Tier 7
Davante Adams; Larry Fitzgerald; Michael Crabtree; DeAndre Hopkins; Jamison Crowder; Kelvin Benjamin; Alshon Jeffery; Sammy Watkins
Tier 8
Jarvis Landry; Eric Decker; Randall Cobb; Jordan Reed; Allen Robinson; Pierre Garcon; Jimmy Graham; DeVante Parker
DeVante Parker missing from this tier really hurts…Jarvis Landry not so much. This 6-man tier should see Pierre Garcon as the chalk. For GPPs, I like Garcon only in a game stack with Cam Newton and either Kelvin Benjamin or Greg Olsen. I am not making enough lineups to stack this game, but I completely understand the play. Garcon is going to feast on a ppr site like Draftkings, and I expect him to be in a higher tier in the coming weeks. For me, you can probably guess where I’m gonna go for GPP plays: Randall Cobb and Jimmy Graham. Did I mention I like the Seahawks/Packers game? Randall Cobb should be lining up in the slot, which is the most exploitable part of the Seahawks pass defense. I like Cobb in all game types, and think he’s going to be in the Pickem GPP winning lineup at sub 10% ownership. Jimmy Graham will definitely have some ownership, and I hate that I can’t play him with Cobb. Just like with Jordy in tier 4, I will have some Graham teams, but will be predominately on Cobb in tier 8.
Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter. I would love to hear more thoughts on this new Pickem format.
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