NFL Week 10 Draftkings Pickem Plays – 11/12/2017

Let’s dive into Week 10…

Tier 1

Leonard Fournette; Le’Veon Bell; Antonio Brown; LeSean McCoy

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 10-point road favorites against the Indianapolis Colts with the second highest team total of the main slate at 27.5 points.  If the Steelers are going to score points, they’re most likely coming from their best players Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown.  The Colts are a train wreck of a football team right now, and both Bell and Brown have exploitable matchups.  The Colts are 6th in fantasy points against opposing running backs, as well as being 21st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA.  Over his last 5 games, Bell has seen touch totals of 39, 25, 35, 38, and 28.  I think Bell is the overall best play of the week for fantasy football.  While that is no hot take, he is bound to be the most popular play in Tier 1.  Antonio Brown also has a great matchup with the 25th ranked pass defense by DVOA that just cut cornerback Vontae Davis (even though he hasn’t been good in years).  The Steelers should be able to score at will on the Colts, it’s just a matter of how they go about doing it.  I recommend exposure to both Steelers studs.

Tier 2

Melvin Gordon; Alvin Kamara; Mark Ingram; A.J. Green

Who’s ready for A.J. Green week?  After the fight with Jalen Ramsey and his 1 catch for 6 yards last week, Green is looking to silence every hater calling him soft.  Green should see coverage from Adoree’ Jackson and LeShaun Sims, who make up part of the Titans’ 24th ranked pass defense by DVOA.  The Titans are also 12th in run defense, so it would make sense for the Bengals to attack them through the air since we know Joe Mixon will end up with 13 carries for 40 yards anyways.  The Bengals are road 4.5-point underdogs, so I think we can project double digit targets for Green this week.

Tier 3

Golden Tate; Jordan Howard; Mike Evans; Michael Thomas; Jerick McKinnon

One of my favorite dfs plays of the week is Jordan Howard.  The usage he’s been seeing since Mitchell Trubisky took over at QB is insane; he’s seen touch totals of 19, 37, 21, and 26.  The Bears are 5.5-point home favorites against the Brett Hundley led Packers.  Since Hundley took over (including the game Aaron Rodgers got hurt), the Packers are allowing an average of 31.2 fantasy points a game to running backs.  The Packers have the #11 DVOA run defense, but that doesn’t matter when your offense can’t stay on the field.  The Bears game plan is to make Trubisky do as little as possible to still win the game, similar to how the Jaguars have been playing.  Jordan Howard doesn’t see much work in the passing game (because he can’t catch), but he should see plenty of carries in this one to make him a great fantasy play.  I also love Golden Tate in this tier.  The Lions are 11-point home favorites against the Cleveland Browns.  This Browns team is allowing a league best 2.9 yards per carry this season, and has the #1 run defense by DVOA.  Their pass defense, however, is ranked 28th.  The Lions run offense is dead last by DVOA, so for the Lions to succeed it’ll be almost entirely through the air.  Jason McCourty, Pro Football Focus’ #2 cornerback, is questionable for Sunday’s game.  If he’s able to go, he will shadow Marvin Jones on the outside, which should open up to move targets for Tate.

Tier 4

Matthew Stafford; Drew Brees; Tyrod Taylor; Josh McCown; Ben Roethlisberger

There’s only two guys I’m playing in this tier:

Matthew Stafford: Golden Tate, Marvin Jones

Ben Roethlisberger: Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Jack Doyle

Tier 5

Kirk Cousins; Blake Bortles; Andy Dalton; Jacoby Brissett; Marcus Mariota

Andy Dalton: A.J. Green

Marcus Mariota: A.J. Green

Jacoby Brissett: Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Jack Doyle

Tier 6

Stefon Diggs; Marvin Jones; Adam Thielen; T.Y. Hilton; JuJu Smith-Schuster; Aaron Jones

JuJu Smith-Schuster definitely comes with concerns.  For one, he’s on an offense with Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, so he’s not going to see a large volume.  Also, Martavis Bryant is back and has been working with the 1’s at practice this week, so I don’t know for sure JuJu continues to be out in 2 wide receiver sets.  I believe he will be, but it’s a tournament/game stack play only for me.  Adam Thielen is 6th in the NFL in percentage of team targets with 27% (AirYards.com).  In London in his last game, Thielen finally scored his first touchdown of the season.  Thielen runs 57% of his routes in the slot (per Pro Football Focus), so he should avoid Josh Norman and Breshaud Breelan coverage for most of the game.  His primary matchup will be with Kendall Fuller in the slot, which is a matchup he should be able to win.  Like I said with Golden Tate, Marvin Jones viability will come down to if Jason McCourty plays or not.  If he plays, I will not use Marvin Jones this week.  If he doesn’t, I’ll play more Marvin Jones than Golden Tate.  Jones has seen targets of 11, 11, and 14 the past 3 games.  In plus matchups, Marvin Jones is a great play.

Tier 7

Chris Thompson; Ted Ginn; Jordy Nelson; Robby Anderson; Jack Doyle; DeSean Jackson

T.Y. Hilton is questionable, which would just make Jack Doyle an even better play than he’s been over the past 5 games with his elite tight end target totals of 9, 14, 7, 11, and 11.  Doyle and Brissett clearly have a nice chemistry growing, and as 10-point underdogs, the Colts will be throwing early and often in this one.  DeSean Jackson, without Mike Evans and Jameis Winston, gets a Jets defense that could be without stud corner Morris Claiborne.  If Claiborne plays, I have little to no interest in Jackson who should get shadowed.  But if he’s out, I’ll play Jackson as someone who can get behind this Jets secondary that ranks 25th in explosive pass rate, per Sharp Football Stats.  On the other side of the same game, Robby Anderson has reached double digit fantasy points in 4 straight (touchdowns in 3 straight).  He faces the Buccaneers’ 31st ranked pass defense by DVOA with top (eh) corner Brent Grimes questionable to return this week.

Tier 8

Davante Adams; Keenan Allen; Matt Forte; Kelvin Benjamin; Marqise Lee; Joe Mixon; Delanie Walker

Keenan Allen is not a tier 8 receiver.  Period.  I understand the Jaguars might be the greatest defense in NFL history, but Allen runs 50% of his routes from the slot, where he’ll avoid much of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye.  There is no exploitable part of this Jaguars pass defense, just less bad sections.  I think Keenan Allen should see enough volume in this one to make him the best tier 8 play.  Davante Adams has Brett Hundley as his QB,  Matt Forte is out,  Kelvin Benjamin has been with his new team for less than 2 weeks, Marqise Lee is questionable and should see Casey Hayward shadow coverage, Joe Mixon is a road dog against the Titans, and Delanie Walker is 77 years old.  I think I just made it simple enough.

Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0.  I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further. 

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