Let’s dive into Week 11…
Tier 1
Todd Gurley; Kareem Hunt; Leonard Fournette; Mark Ingram
Kareem Hunt: The Giants defense is ranked 27th in run defense DVOA by Football Outsiders. They have been torched for 62 fantasy points to running backs the last two weeks, and could be without all-world run stuffer Damon Harrison. Hunt is going to be the most popular play in this tier, but it’s deserved.
Tier 2
Alvin Kamara; Travis Kelce; Michael Thomas; Mike Evans
Mike Evans: Coming off the suspension, look for Mike Evans to get force fed the ball. The Dolphins are 31st in pass defense by DVOA and just got crushed by Panthers receivers for 46.4 fantasy points. A nice way to differentiate from other Evans teams is to stack him with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who no one will go back to after failing as the most popular QB last year.
Tier 3
Larry Fitzgerald; Adam Thielen; Tyreek Hill; Sterling Shepard
Tier 4
Alex Smith; Kirk Cousins; Matthew Stafford; Jared Goff; Drew Brees
Alex Smith: Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce
Kirk Cousins: Chris Thompson, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara
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Drew Brees: Chris Thompson, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara
Tier 5
Case Keenum; Eli Manning; Blake Bortles; Jay Cutler; Ryan Fitzpatrick; Teddy Bridgewater
Blake Bortles: Marqise Lee
Eli Manning: Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Mike Evans, DeVante Parker
Tier 6
DeAndre Hopkins; Golden Tate; Stefon Diggs; Jarvis Landry; Robert Woods; DeVante Parker
Tier 7
Chris Thompson; Jordan Howard; Marvin Jones; Evan Engram; Jerick McKinnon; Marqise Lee; Adrian Peterson
Chris Thompson: With Rob Kelley out and being a 7.5-point road underdog against the Saints, this is a Chris Thompson game. Samaje Perine will still be in the mix, but the Redskins are going to be throwing early and often to keep up with the Saints in this one. I
Jordan Howard: I know he burned us all last week, but now he’s going to come in at no ownership; this is a game theory play. The Bears are 3-point underdogs at home to a division opponent. Last year in 2 games against the Lions, Howard ran 36 times for 197 yards. This included a home win for the Bears, and it’s not inconceivable for them to be playing with positive game script this year, also. The Lions pass defense is ranked 10th by DVOA, so expect the Bears to limit Mitch Trubisky‘s pass attempts and feed Jordan Howard as much as they can. This could very well be a very sloppy 17-14 football game, but that just means two touchdowns for JoHo.
Tier 8
Davante Adams; Lamar Miller; Duke Johnson; Ted Ginn; DeSean Jackson; Jeremy Maclin; Cooper Kupp; Kenyan Drake
Kenyan Drake: I really don’t like Drake in general, but this tier is very weak and he’s going up against the 28th ranked defense by DVOA at home. The Dolphins have not been in positive game script since Jay Ajayi‘s departure, so it’ll be interesting to see how the running back touches work out IF (and that’s a big if) the Dolphins are able to control the game.
Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0. I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further.
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