The Draftkings Pickem format that was introduced in Week 1 was very successful, in my opinion. Unfortunately, I did not win the $100k first place prize, but I had a profitable week as I hope you did too reading my Week 1 article. I believe it’s still a worthwhile read even after the slate, because I gave some insightful game theory tips that can be used in the future. For those who don’t know what the new pickem game is, here’s what I said in my intro last week:
Draftkings has unveiled a new dfs format for the NFL season. The new Pickem games are much simpler than the salary-based contests we’re used to. There are 8 tiers of 8 different players in each, and you roster 1 player per tier; it’s as easy as that. I believe this is going to be a fun new game-type that should attract a more general football audience. Without being able to differentiate with unique lineup construction by paying down at QB, punting at Tight End, or making a stars and scrubs lineup, many people will be entering nearly identical teams in GPPs. Ownership is sure to be heavily focused on a few players, meaning just a few simple pivot plays can result in massive leverage against the field.
I wanted to briefly discuss Week 1, but figured this breakdown of each tier’s ownership percentages and fantasy points did the job for me. To make a long story short: FADE THE CHALK. Sorry for screaming, but I will be repeating this message every week. Other than Matt Ryan (who only outscored Aaron Rodgers by 0.4), no player who led his respective tier was over 13% owned in the large $3 GPP.
Now lets dive into the tiers for Week 2…
Tier 1
Matt Ryan; Aaron Rodgers; Philip Rivers; Derek Carr; Ben Roethlisberger; Drew Brees; Tom Brady; Russell Wilson
Like I said last week, QB is the position I have the least conviction on and think it should be the last two spots you fill in your pickem lineups. I prefer, when possible, to have the QB correlate to at least one other spot in my lineup. Obviously that does not always work if the receivers aren’t in the tier player pool. This week is no different, and I’m sorry. Matt Ryan is my favorite overall play, edging out Aaron Rodgers because of the new stadium crowd noise, and Tom Brady because the Patriots will probably have 5 Mike Gillislee touchdowns after end zone pass interference calls. It is a very slim margin as you can see, but Ryan should also see less pickem ownership than the others. Play your tier 1 qb based on the rest of said team.
Tier 2
Alex Smith; Carson Wentz; Marcus Mariota; Dak Prescott; Cam Newton; Kirk Cousins; Carson Palmer; Jameis Winston
Tier 3
Antonio Brown; LeSean McCoy; Jordy Nelson; Amari Cooper; David Johnson; Brandin Cooks; Julio Jones; LeVeon Bell
Tier 4
Kareem Hunt; Ezekiel Elliott; Ty Montgomery; Melvin Gordon; Michael Crabtree; Devanta Freeman; Michael Thomas; Mike Evans
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I am most interested to see how ownership ends up in tier 4. Ty Montgomery is the uber chalk in classic salary games, but that factors in his cheap price tag relative to his role. In pickem, he’s “priced” on the same tier as Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon, but I think people will still flock to TyMont. This means we will get suppressed ownership on 30+ touch upside backs Zeke and Gordon in solid matchups. I really don’t have much more to add about this tier, so play Zeke and Melvin.
Tier 5
Tyreek Hill; Leonard Fournette; Todd Gurley; Larry Fitzgerald; Marshawn Lynch; Doug Baldwin; Rob Gronkowski; Jay Ajayi
Tier 6
Stefon Diggs; Randall Cobb; Jordan Howard; Jeremy Maclin; Terrelle Pryor; Demaryius Thomas; Demarco Murray; Devante Adams
Per my Week 2 stacks article, I am higher on Randall Cobb than Devante Adams. I think Cobb will draw more ownership after last week, but I will still play mostly Cobb in tier 6 with my Sunday Night Football stacks. I also wrote about Terrelle Pryor in my stacks article, so it’s clear that he’s one of my other favorite plays. Pryor’s 166 air yards were second in the NFL (Airyards.com), meaning he’s seeing both volume and high upside opportunities. His matchup isn’t as great against Trumaine Johnson as in Week 1, but Cousins will get him the ball (I like that stack a lot). The last player I’m interested in for tier 6 is Stefon Diggs. I do think he will be the most popular player in this tier after the show he put on Monday night, but I’m very interested in the Vikings/Steelers game as a pivot off the Patriots/Saints and Packers/Falcons games. A Roethlisberger/Bell/Diggs stack would be incredibly low owned and has GPP winning upside.
Tier 7
Mike Gillislee; Dalvin Cook; Zach Ertz; Christian McCaffrey; Bilal Powell; Chris Hogan; Desean Jackson; Jarvis Landry
Tier 8
Keenan Allen; Pierre Garcon; Isaiah Crowell; T.Y. Hilton; Dez Bryant; Kelvin Benjamin; Devante Parker
The chalk in tier 8 will be Keenan Allen. He is under priced in the classic salary contests, so that ownership is likely to spill into the Pickem games. I do believe he is the best play, but there are two GPP pivots for me: Pierre Garcon and T.Y. Hilton. Last week, Garcon was the most popular play of tier 8 and had the 2nd most points. This was in an always-trailing game script against the Panthers. The Niners are likely to be in a similar situation as 14 point road underdogs in Seattle. Just like with Cobb last week, we can target slot receivers for volume against the Seahawks Legion of Boom secondary. Garcon saw 10 targets in Week 1, and could see double digit targets once again in Week 2. Hilton is definitely not a high upside play these days without Andrew Luck, but when you are looking at the landscape of this tier, he can certainly have the most raw fantasy points. Hilton’s 33% share of the Colts overall targets was 3rd in the NFL in Week 1. So if we expect a full game of Jacoby Brissett to be more useful than any amount of Scott Tolzien (and yes, we do), then we can at least expect some PPR volume for T.Y. in a bad matchup against the Cardinals. Remember, the player doesn’t have to have a good game…he just has to beat the other 7 in his tier!
Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter. I would love to hear more thoughts on this new Pickem format.
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