Draftkings has decided AGAIN to change the Pickem format. I hope that this is the final big change and we can start to really figure out the best ways to attack the Pickem games. For Week 4, we are back to having two quarterback tiers, which is nice. The bad change? The main Pickem slate is now 1 pm only games… This makes for one hell of a sweat. The one takeaway I have right now is that with a smaller slate of games, we should be trying to correlate our plays more than before. I’m going to be using full game stacks with quarterbacks and receivers from both sides (when applicable).
Now let’s dive into the tiers for Week 4…
Tier 1
Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, Julio Jones
For entering multiple lineups, my favorite approach for these 3-man tiers is to play 66% my favorite play, 33% my second favorite, and fade the final guy. In tier 1, my Week 3 cover boy A.J. Green is the 66% play. Green saw 48% of the Bengal’s targets in Week 3 and posted a 10-111-1 stat line. On the road against the Browns, Green is in another dream matchup. The Browns, 26th in pass defense DVOA (Football Outsiders),
Tier 2
LeSean McCoy, Ekeziel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell
LeSean McCoy and Ezekiel Elliott are going to be two of the most popular running backs on the week in classic salary contests, so I expect that ownership to travel to Pickem as well. I will project this tier to be about 40% McCoy, 40% Elliott, and 20% Bell. This situation works out well for me because I have little interest in playing Shady McCoy this week (when factoring in all the other great RB plays this week). When it comes to tier 2, I can safely project a better raw-fantasy points output for Zeke than Shady; I will play 66% Zeke and play 0% Shady. I’m not saying Shady is a bad play by any means, but in order to win a tournament, you have to take a stand. If McCoy at 40% ownership crushes this tier, I’m just gonna lose and I’m OK with that. If you read my Week 4 Stacks Report, you will see that Zeke is my favorite RB on the week if you take away pricing. Just like Antonio Brown, I expect Le’Veon Bell to be the odd man out. His touches have been back to 2016 Bell, so the real concern is matchup. The Ravens just got torched by the Blake Bortles led Jaguars in London. I still am a believer in the Ravens defense (#1 ranked in DVOA), but Bell and Brown are good enough to overcome any matchup.
Tier 3
Todd Gurley, Stefon Diggs, Devonta Freeman, Brandin Cooks, Christian McCaffrey
Tier 4
Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Rob Gronkowski, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant
Point-per-dollar, my favorite play of the week on Draftkings is Dalvin Cook. As home favorites against the Lions who rank 5th in pass defense DVOA and 16th in rush defense DVOA, I expect the Vikings to run early and often with their workhorse back. Last week against the Buccs, Cook had 32 touches (including 5 receptions on 5 targets). With Case Keenum set to start another game, the Vikings will lean heavily on the run if it’s working. Another volume back in this tier, Leonard Fournette, has scored a touchdown in each game of his season/career. The Jaguars have blown out the Ravens and Texans, and have been blown out by the Titans so far this season. We haven’t seen how the Jags will use Fournette in a low scoring close game, which I expect in this epic(ly bad) matchup with the Jets. I think you need exposure to Fournette every week he has a decent matchup, because of the volume and market share of the Jaguars backfield…all of it. I like DeAndre Hopkins, in general, this week, but will most likely be fading him in Pickem due to expected high ownership. We could see less than 5% ownership on Dez Bryant, who’s a great leverage play. After being able to score the past two weeks against Denver and Arizona, Dez has proven that he can beat difficult matchups and find the end zone. Also, he’s part of my favorite game of the slate as I previously stated. Stack up the Cowboys!
Tier 5
Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Marcus Mariota, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton
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Tier 6
Jared Goff, Blake Bortles, DeShone Kizer, DeShaun Watson, Tyrod Taylor, Joe Flacco
Tyrod Taylor is going to be the most popular QB in this tier, and the only player you can stack him with is Shady. As a hedge stack from all my main lineups, I will have a Tyrod-Shady-Julio game stack…just in case. I also don’t hate a Blake Bortles to Allen Hurns stack on teams without Fournette. As you can probably expect, my main play in tier 6 is going to be Jared Goff. If you’re playing in the Cowboys/Rams game, welcome to my lineups!
Tier 7
Adam Thielen, Golden Tate, Sammy Watkins, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, DeMarco Murray, Devin Funchess, Joe Mixon
Tier 8
Jason Witten, Rishard Matthews, Mike Gillislee, Allen Hurns, Delanie Walker, Mohamed Sanu, James White, Martavis Bryant
I don’t love this tier, but it does have a bunch of similar plays. The three players I’ll be targeting are Rishard Matthews, Allen Hurns, and Mohamed Sanu. Matthews, like I said in my Stacks Report article, was actually the benefactor of Corey Davis missing last week as the #1 target for Mariota. With Davis out again this week, I’m gonna go right back to Matthews (just like I expect Mariota to do). Houston just gave up a massive game to Brandin Cooks, and I think Matthews has the highest ceiling (29% of team air yards per Airyards.com) in the Titans passing offense. A lot of love has been given to Marqise Lee this week, but he’s going to get a less than ideal matchup with Morris Claiborne, who hasn’t been bad dating back to last season with the Cowboys. The most exploitable matchup is in the slot against Buster Skrine; this is where Allen Hurns should feast. If the Jaguars aren’t able to move the ball effectively on the ground, I expect Bortles-Hurns stacks to pay off. Sanu should be low owned and is great leverage off of Julio. He does not have huge upside, but he’s very consistent and can be the top of this tier with less than 20 points.
Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0. I would love to hear more thoughts on this new Pickem format.
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